Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ/BUY/Rp2,500/Target: Rp3,000): 4Q23: Net profit dropped 13.5% qoq; 17% net profit growth expected in 2024. Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ/HOLD/Rp1,260/Target: Rp1,370): 4Q23: NPAT in line with consensus; expect better results in the upcoming quarter. Downgrade to HOLD. Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/BUY/Rp855/Target: Rp1,200): 4Q23: Non-tower revenue up 18% yoy; maintain BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ): Technical BUY Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PG...
TOWR’s 4Q23 net profit dropped 6% yoy and 5% qoq, mainly from rising expenses. 2023 non-tower revenue jumped 18% yoy (4Q23: +18% yoy and +13% qoq), primarily driven by the 22% expansion of FTTT network length during the period. We expect non-tower (fibre and other non-tower businesses) revenue to grow 24% yoy in 2024 (2023: 37%). Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp1,200.
INDONESIA Results Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ/BUY/Rp2,500/Target: Rp3,000) 4Q23: Net profit dropped 13.5% qoq; 17% net profit growth expected in 2024. Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ/HOLD/Rp1,260/Target: Rp1,370) 4Q23: NPAT in line with consensus; expect better results in the upcoming quarter. Downgrade to HOLD. Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/BUY/Rp855/Target: Rp1,200) 4Q23: Non-tower revenue up 18% yoy; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation CPO prices have surpassed those of SBO, SFO and R...
2023 was another decent year for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. Stocks (especially China Mobile and Telecom) outperformed the weak local index. We expect trends to last through 2024 with good revenue growth and reducing margin pressure and the potential for shareholder remuneration to surprise
Amongst our EM Tower coverage, African TowerCos like IHS continue to trend well on topline and EBITDA, with capex expected to come down next FY; topline for Indonesian towers was driven by inorganic growth at Mitratel; China Tower was better on all fronts, with double-digit profit growth again. Indian Towers saw better EBITDA performance on lower bad debt costs, but towers revenue was weaker off Indus’ decline. We see some evidence that Telcos are seeing better bargaining power.
We just wrapped up the first day of the BCG and New Street Research Future Series conference, which this year is focused on the Future of Mobility and Convergence in the Era of AI . The first day featured discussions with American Tower, AWS, Cohere, Ericsson, IHS Towers, Microsoft, OpenAI, Qualcomm, Rakuten Symphony, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Veon.
ISAT on 27 November announced its collaboration with MNC Play by acquiring over 300,000 subscribers. This could give rise to slightly positive sentiment on ISAT as it gives more clarity on its potential inorganic growth in the fixed broadband/fixed mobile convergence business. EXCL has yet to announce the recent progress of its synergy with LINK (top 2 player in fixed broadband market). The impact might be roughly priced in for now as ISAT’s share price jumped 4% on 29 Nov 23. Maintain OVERWEIGH...
GREATER CHINA Sector Commodities: Weekly: US dollar tumbles on easing Fed rate hike fears; industrial metals and iron ore prices spike on stimulus optimism. Results Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$16.18/Target: HK$21.60): 3Q23: Another beat on solid execution. INDONESIA Results Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/BUY/Rp980/Target: Rp1,200): 3Q23: Fibre and connectivity revenue (+39% yoy) were main growth drivers; Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Mr D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK/BUY/RM1.61/Target: RM2.10): 3Q2...
TOWR booked 3Q23 EBITDA of Rp2.5t, up 5% yoy and 1% qoq, in line with our and consensus’ estimates. Its 3Q23 net profit growth of +7% qoq showed an encouraging trend thanks to lower finance costs. 9M23 FTTT revenue rose by 68% yoy, mainly due to strong growth in its FTTT network length (around 47% yoy). We expect fibre and connectivity revenue to grow 24% yoy in 2024 with higher revenue contribution (32% in 2024 vs 27% in 2023). Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp1,200.
Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/BUY/Rp980/Target: Rp1,200): 3Q23: Fibre and connectivity revenue (+39% yoy) were main growth drivers; Maintain BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ): Technical BUY Astra Otoparts (AUTO IJ): Technical BUY
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Protelindo printed a slower set of results but still sustained MSD growth, helped by FTTT. EBITDA slowed slightly YoY on higher marketing and G&A costs, but margin remained decent at 85%. Protelindo’s exposure to FTTT is proving worthwhile and following the industry’s shift towards convergence, we believe Protelindo stands to benefit.
We expect data revenue to rise 10%/9% yoy in 2023/24, mainly due to data traffic growth. The upcoming Election Day in Feb 24 may also help increase data traffic by at least 7% vs a normal day. We also believe fixed broadband revenue could accelerate slightly by 10% yoy in 2024 (2023: 9% yoy). For tower companies, fibre-to-the-tower could become an additional growth driver. We expect TOWR's revenue from FTTT and connectivity services to grow 29%/24% yoy in 2023/24 respectively. Maintain OVERWEIGH...
China Tower reported another robust set of figures with good bottom-line growth, supported by an improvement in topline and EBITDA. YTD net profit has grown 14.8% YoY, against consensus’ 8.9% growth for the full year. Despite the recent margin pressure associated with its higher-growth Two Wings business, net profit growth has remained strong on lower depreciation and finance costs.
Amongst our EM Tower coverage, African TowerCos like IHS continue to trend well on topline and EBITDA; Indonesian towers reported faster EBITDA growth ahead of topline again; China Tower slowed again as Towers revenue were impacted by MSA renegotiation effective from 2023; its Two Wings business continue to show healthy growth, however. Indian towers reported better numbers, supported by Indus performance as the lower bad debt costs helped offset its higher energy costs.
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