Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1435.00) - Set for an undramatic Q1

We are roughly in line with Q1 consensus, and expect an adj. EBIT margin close to the guidance of c7% and a reiteration of the 2024 guidance. We estimate c30% adj. EBIT growth for 2024 and the cUSD0.9bn of the buyback mandate that remains for this year to further support the stock, which remains one of our sector top picks. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1,425 (1,300).

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1300.00) - Simply the best

After the Q4 results, Autoliv remains a sector top pick, with 2024e adj. EBIT growing >30% YOY, while the valuation remains supportive at a c10x P/E. We also expect the company to further accelerate share buybacks, where it has cSEK1bn (c12% of market cap) left of the current mandate that runs through end-2024. We have made minor estimate changes and trimmed our target price to SEK1,300 (1,320), and reiterate our BUY.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1320.00) - Earnings growth and buybacks

We are roughly in line with Q4e consensus. Focus should be on the 2024 guidance, which we expect to be for 4–6% organic growth and a 10.5–11.0% adj. EBIT margin, leaving room for gradual increases during the year. We estimate >30% EPS growth for 2024, with support from the USD1.5bn buyback mandate. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK1,320 (1,360).

Decoding Alpha

Our analysis of underlying total shareholder return (TSR) drivers for Swedish Industrial companies reveals that high returns are not synonymous with high valuations. Investors tend to overpay for ‘growth’, while cash returns such as dividends and buybacks are typically deeply discounted. We believe Autoliv, Alfa Laval and Hexagon offer the most long-term TSR potential (13–14% annualised), with SKF and Trelleborg at the other end of the spectrum (8–9%), while also concluding that several stocks l...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1360.00) - Get in and buckle up

Autoliv’s Q3 results have reinforced our view of the stock as a sector top pick. Autoliv ranks highest on earnings growth (2024e adj. EBIT up 43% YOY) and share buybacks (USD1.2bn still to be executed before end-2024e), while also being among the most attractively valued in the sector (2024e P/E of 8.5x versus a 12.4x average since the Veoneer spin-off in 2018). We have increased our 2023–2025e adj. EBIT by 10% on average (mainly due to a structurally lower tax rate) and raised our target price ...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1310.00) - Buying back shares

We are roughly in line with consensus for Q3e, but see double-digit potential upside to 2024e adj. EBIT should Autoliv hit its margin target (which looks increasingly likely to us). We also see support for the stock from the USD1.5bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,310 (1,235).

Autoliv Inc: 1 director

A director at Autoliv Inc sold 11,400 shares at 1,007.668SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1110.00) - Focus on pricing

We expect focus in Q2 to be on the progress of pricing discussions with customers; we believe some contract signings could slip to Q3, which likely explains why we are 4% below consensus on Q2e adj. EBIT. However, due to recoveries (retroactive pricing), any downside should be regained in Q3. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,110 (1,090).

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1090.00) - The least important quarter of 2023

The least important quarter of 2023 We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK1,090 (1,100) after fine-tuning our estimates following the Q1 results, having lowered our 2023e adj. EBIT by 1% and raised our 2024–2025e by

Still going strong

Although reported EU taxonomy alignment for the sector is low, we have identified which companies screen best and could benefit from attracting ESG capital. We still favour China, mining, energy and aftermarket exposure, and see upside potential to consensus estimates, but view overall risk/reward as neutral on elevated valuation.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1100.00) - Weak Q1 discounted, focus on 2023

As Autoliv gave weak Q1 guidance with its Q4 results, we believe investors have discounted it as a ‘lost’ quarter and focus will be on finding further support for the more optimistic 2023 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,100 (1,070).

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1070.00) - They see me rollin’

The Q4 report provided solid support to our positive view on Autoliv. Given a clear improvement in pricing, the company guided for 15% organic sales growth YOY in 2023 and margins recovering (we see c50% growth in adj. EBIT, and an 8.8% margin). With cUSD1.4bn left (c18% of its market cap) of the buyback programme and reaching its 12% adj. EBIT margin target in 2024 more plausible (implying >20% potential upside to consensus), we see a positive risk/reward; we reiterate our BUY and have raised o...

Industrial blues

DNB Markets’ Strategy and Macro team suggests being underweight industrials, due to the sector’s premium valuation and risk of >10% earnings cuts in 2023 from a cyclical slowdown. Our sensitivity analysis shows Volvo, Dometic and Autoliv have the greatest downside risk to earnings in a cyclical slowdown, while Assa Abloy and Hexagon (two of our sector top picks) should be most resilient. We prefer mining, energy, aftermarket and China exposure.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK970.00) - Autoliv-ing on the edge in Q4

We expect continued challenges in Q4 due to Covid-related disruptions in China and still-volatile OEM production globally, with our Q4e adj. EBIT 16% below consensus. However, we remain optimistic on Autoliv’s prospects and expect 2023 adj. EBIT to rise >50% YOY, which we believe makes the stock attractive from a risk/reward perspective given the sell-off in recent weeks. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK970 (1,010), having lowered 2022e adj. EBIT by 6%, while 2023–2024e ...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1010.00) - Pricing improving

Autoliv’s Q3 report strengthened our confidence in the company’s continued margin improvement and improved pricing, which should provide more stable and predictable earnings in the future. We have raised our 2022e adj. EBIT by 7% while 2023–2024e is broadly unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,010 (965).