Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1360.00) - Higher margin and share buybacks

Although the share price is up >10% since the Q3 report and we are 4% below consensus on Q4e adj. EBIT, we continue to like the stock. We see EBIT growing by c35% until 2026e (in line with consensus), with the valuation c20% below the historical average and capacity for further share buybacks. We expect Autoliv’s 2025 guidance to include c2% organic growth and an adj. EBIT margin of 10–11%. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1,360 (1,270).

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1270.00) - Relief rally

Although Q3 sales and adj. EBIT were just 1% above consensus, the report was a positive surprise that led to a relief rally in the stock price. Key positives were that the 2024 margin guidance was not cut to the extent investors had feared and that the company said it was increasing its market share with local Chinese OEMs. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,270 (1,210) following our 4–2% increase in adj. EBIT for 2024–2026e.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1210.00) - Further market weakness

Following several profit warnings in the industry, we have lowered our adj. EBIT by 7% on average for 2024–2026e. We are 17% below consensus on Q3e adj. EBIT and expect the company to cut its 2024 guidance. With a 2025e P/E of 9.2x, we still find the shares attractively valued versus the historical average of c12x. We see EBIT growing c60% until 2026e, with capacity for further share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK1,210 (1,290).

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1290.00) - The place where no one is looking

The share price is down c30% since May on the weak Q2, cut 2024 guidance and negative auto sector sentiment. While we are 5% below consensus on Q3e adj. EBIT and expect Autoliv to end up in the lower end of its 2024 EBIT margin guidance of 9.5–10%, we continue to like the name. We see EBIT growing c40% until 2026e (c7% above consensus), with the valuation near trough levels and capacity for further share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK1,290 (1,320).

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1320.00) - At the mercy of others

Autoliv’s Q2 report disappointed, with a material earnings miss and cut to 2024e guidance that implies c10% downside to consensus adj. EBIT at the mid-point, as external factors (mainly lower light vehicle production) have moved against the company, with few possibilities for it to offset them. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK1,320 (1,570) following our 15–7% cut in adj. EBIT 2024–2026e on lower organic growth and lower margins, now assuming it will not reach its 12%...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1570.00) - 2024e on track

We are roughly in line with Q2 consensus, and expect a 250bp QOQ improvement in the adj. EBIT margin (reflecting guidance of a similar quarterly trend as in recent years) while we also expect a reiteration of 2024 guidance. We estimate 28% adj. EBIT growth for 2024 and the cUSD0.8bn of the buyback mandate that remains for this year to further support the stock. We reiterate our BUY and have made no significant changes to our estimates but have trimmed our target price to SEK1,570 (1,600) due to ...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1435.00) - Set for an undramatic Q1

We are roughly in line with Q1 consensus, and expect an adj. EBIT margin close to the guidance of c7% and a reiteration of the 2024 guidance. We estimate c30% adj. EBIT growth for 2024 and the cUSD0.9bn of the buyback mandate that remains for this year to further support the stock, which remains one of our sector top picks. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1,425 (1,300).

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1300.00) - Simply the best

After the Q4 results, Autoliv remains a sector top pick, with 2024e adj. EBIT growing >30% YOY, while the valuation remains supportive at a c10x P/E. We also expect the company to further accelerate share buybacks, where it has cSEK1bn (c12% of market cap) left of the current mandate that runs through end-2024. We have made minor estimate changes and trimmed our target price to SEK1,300 (1,320), and reiterate our BUY.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1320.00) - Earnings growth and buybacks

We are roughly in line with Q4e consensus. Focus should be on the 2024 guidance, which we expect to be for 4–6% organic growth and a 10.5–11.0% adj. EBIT margin, leaving room for gradual increases during the year. We estimate >30% EPS growth for 2024, with support from the USD1.5bn buyback mandate. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK1,320 (1,360).

Decoding Alpha

Our analysis of underlying total shareholder return (TSR) drivers for Swedish Industrial companies reveals that high returns are not synonymous with high valuations. Investors tend to overpay for ‘growth’, while cash returns such as dividends and buybacks are typically deeply discounted. We believe Autoliv, Alfa Laval and Hexagon offer the most long-term TSR potential (13–14% annualised), with SKF and Trelleborg at the other end of the spectrum (8–9%), while also concluding that several stocks l...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1360.00) - Get in and buckle up

Autoliv’s Q3 results have reinforced our view of the stock as a sector top pick. Autoliv ranks highest on earnings growth (2024e adj. EBIT up 43% YOY) and share buybacks (USD1.2bn still to be executed before end-2024e), while also being among the most attractively valued in the sector (2024e P/E of 8.5x versus a 12.4x average since the Veoneer spin-off in 2018). We have increased our 2023–2025e adj. EBIT by 10% on average (mainly due to a structurally lower tax rate) and raised our target price ...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1310.00) - Buying back shares

We are roughly in line with consensus for Q3e, but see double-digit potential upside to 2024e adj. EBIT should Autoliv hit its margin target (which looks increasingly likely to us). We also see support for the stock from the USD1.5bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,310 (1,235).

Autoliv Inc: 1 director

A director at Autoliv Inc sold 11,400 shares at 1,007.668SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1110.00) - Focus on pricing

We expect focus in Q2 to be on the progress of pricing discussions with customers; we believe some contract signings could slip to Q3, which likely explains why we are 4% below consensus on Q2e adj. EBIT. However, due to recoveries (retroactive pricing), any downside should be regained in Q3. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,110 (1,090).

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1090.00) - The least important quarter of 2023

The least important quarter of 2023 We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK1,090 (1,100) after fine-tuning our estimates following the Q1 results, having lowered our 2023e adj. EBIT by 1% and raised our 2024–2025e by

Still going strong

Although reported EU taxonomy alignment for the sector is low, we have identified which companies screen best and could benefit from attracting ESG capital. We still favour China, mining, energy and aftermarket exposure, and see upside potential to consensus estimates, but view overall risk/reward as neutral on elevated valuation.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1100.00) - Weak Q1 discounted, focus on 2023

As Autoliv gave weak Q1 guidance with its Q4 results, we believe investors have discounted it as a ‘lost’ quarter and focus will be on finding further support for the more optimistic 2023 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,100 (1,070).