reports
- Chong Lee Len
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - 3Q24: In Line; Higher Merger Synergies In Coming...
3Q24: In Line; Higher Merger Synergies In Coming Quarters CelcomDigi reported a 3Q24 net profit of RM437m (+4% qoq; -27% yoy) with growth momentum in postpaid, fibre and enterprise. This brings 9M24 net profit to RM1,344m, in line with our expectations. Positively, we expect higher cost synergy savings going into 4Q24 as management lifts the gross synergy target to RM1.1-1.2b for 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM4.50. The stock trades at 8x 2025F EV/EBITDA, -0.5SD below its five-year mean, an...
- Benyamin Mikael
- Chong Lee Len
- Colin Lee
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 19, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$28.80/Target: HK$33.50) 3Q24: Beat across the board; expect sustained growth across all key segments. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$33.50. INDONESIA Update Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp26,850/Target: Rp25,100) Expect profit to decline by 12% yoy in 2025, fuelled by lower ASP. MALAYSIA Results CelcomDigi (CDB MK/BUY/RM3.37/Target: RM4.50) 9M24: In line; stock offers 5% yiel...
- Chris Hoare
CelcomDigi (Buy, TP: RM6, +80%) Q3 24 Quick Take: Lowered service rev...
Service revenue trend remained muted on SIM consolidation and a conscious effort to flush out rotational churners in Prepaid, resulting in a downward revision in service revenue guidance to “flat to slight decrease” from “low single digit increase” prior.
- Chong Lee Len
Maxis (MAXIS MK) - 3Q24: Strong Results; EBITDA Guidance Maintained
3Q24: Strong Results; EBITDA Guidance Maintained Maxis reported strong 3Q24 results, with net profit surging 28% yoy. This was due to higher service revenue and a one-off manpower rationalisation cost in 3Q23. Maxis declared a third interim DPS of 4 sen/share (86% payout) and maintained its EBITDA guidance of a low single-digit growth for 2024. The upcoming 4Q24 results are expected to be sequentially weaker given higher device costs and subsidies with the launch of iPhone 16. Maintain BUY with ...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, November 11, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Deflationary pressure persists, particularly for upstream pricing. Results ECARX (ECX US/BUY/US$1.84/Target: US$3.40): 3Q24: Revenue beat despite price competition. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp438/Target: Rp480): Unclear outlook for 2025; regulatory risk to key brand products. Downgrade to HOLD. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.32/Target: RM2.60): 3Q24: Delivers on earnings as it is on the cusp of ...
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
SATS SP SATS LTD.
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
WPRTS WESTPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
ECX ECARX HOLDINGS INC
99SMART 99 SPEED MART RETAIL HOLDINGS BHD
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 04, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
Telecommunications - A Surprise Award Of Second 5G Network To U Mobile
A Surprise Award Of Second 5G Network To U Mobile The second 5G network award to U Mobile comes as a surprise and we expect this to have an overhang on Maxis and CelcomDigi as both heavyweights weigh their options moving forward. We note that U Mobile has invited CelcomDigi and TM to participate in the rollout of its second network. Potential winners are telco contractors such as edotco, OCK, EdgePoint Towers and Naza Communications. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. The sector currently trades at 6.2x 12...
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
Telecommunications - 2Q24: In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesale Netwo...
2Q24: In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G By Year-end 2Q24 results came in within expectations, with sector earnings contracting 5% yoy and 2% qoq. The quarter was characterised by: a) 2% yoy service revenue growth, with Maxis achieving 5% yoy growth; and b) strong underlying demand for home broadband amid price competition. Following the results, we project sector earnings to grow 3%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top picks are CelcomDigi, Maxis and TIME dotCom. We expect the sec...
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
Maxis (MAXIS MK) - 2Q24: Another Strong Quarter; Lifts EBITDA Guidance
2Q24: Another Strong Quarter; Lifts EBITDA Guidance Maxis registered a sequentially higher net profit in 2Q24 on the back of cost discipline. This was partly offset by seasonally lower device sales. 2Q24 normalised EBITDA margin expanded to 40.4% (+0.3ppt qoq) on the back of higher postpaid, fibre and enterprise revenues, as well as cost discipline. Maxis declared a second interim DPS of 4 sen/share (88% payout) as management lifts 2024 EBITDA guidance. Maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, August 22, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$3.54/Target: HK$4.92): 1H24: Stronger 2H24, expect restocking into 1H25. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/SELL/HK$5.68/Target: HK$5.00): 1H24: Results miss; major products face considerable price pressure. Downgrade to SELL. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$7.88/Target: HK$13.00): 1H24: Core earnings up 108% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$13.00. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$228.60/Target: HK$30...
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
5186 MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY ENGINEERING HOLDINGS BHD
SATS SP SATS LTD.
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
CK CH. KARNCHANG PUBLIC CO LTD
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - 2Q24: In Line; 2024 Gross Synergy Savings To Sur...
2Q24: In Line; 2024 Gross Synergy Savings To Surpass Previous Guidance CELCOMDIGI reported a 2Q24 net profit of RM406m (+8% qoq; 18% yoy). Excluding a RM14m one-off cost booked in the quarter, 2Q24 core net profit came in at RM420m (-14% qoq; -20% yoy), in line with our expectations. Management expects 2024 gross synergy to surpass the previous guidance of RM700m, partly offset by integration costs. Maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of RM4.50. The stock trades at 8.4x EV/EBITDA, -0.5SD ...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, August 20, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$24.00/Target: HK$41.30): 1H24: Premiumisation lags; trim sales volume and profit targets. China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.57/Target: HK$1.83): 1H24: Below expectations; hopeful on pent-up demand in 2H24. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb23.39/Target: Rmb33.00): 1H24: Results satisfactory; R&D and CSPC Baike acquisition well on track. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb20.25/Target: Rmb23.30): 2Q24: ...
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
IJM IJM CORP BHD
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
300765 CSPC INNOVATION PHARMACEUTICAL CO L
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
1313 CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS LTD
2008 HANS LASER TECHNOLOGY CO LTD
- Chong Lee Len
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - Flow Through Of Merger Synergies
Flow Through Of Merger Synergies Network integration works are expected to yield savings of RM5.5b over five years. With a target completion of 75% by end-24, we believe CelcomDigi is set to see a flow through in merger savings by 2H25. The stock offers a three-year earnings CAGR of 15% and 5% dividend yield. The potential monetisation of its tower assets may be a catalyst. The stock has retraced 10% ytd and we see emerging value. Upgrade to BUY with an unchanged DCF-based fair value of RM4.50.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, July 25, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$88.00/Target: HK$118.50): 2Q24: Weak results; advanced packaging progress remains intact. Maintain BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb35.41/Target: Rmb86.00): 2Q24: Earnings up 25% yoy/qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb86.00. Update Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$134.24/Target: US$200.00): Navigating against unwavering geopolitical concerns. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,630): 1Q24 reve...
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
Telecommunications - Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G By En...
Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G By End-24 Telcos have been invited by the government to submit proposals to develop Malaysia’s second 5G network. The government also said that telcos are restricted to holding equity only in one entity. As such, consortiums forming entity B (second network) will sell their share in DNB. The government will also exit DNB. We expect the government to announce a second network by end-24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks are TIME and MAXIS.
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
Maxis (MAXIS MK) - Positive Earnings Momentum Driven By Core Consumer ...
Positive Earnings Momentum Driven By Core Consumer Business Maxis will focus on its pillars of strength − mobile, fibre and enterprise − to drive nearterm earnings. A well-executed pre-to-postpaid migration strategy can lift service revenue by 20% and lower customer churn. Together with fixed-mobile convergence and good cost discipline, we expect positive earnings momentum in the near term. Maxis will submit a business plan for the second 5G network, as Malaysia transitions to a dual-wholesale n...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum
- Kong Ho Meng
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, June 28, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Bosideng (3998 HK/NOT RATED/HK$4.56): FY24: Earnings beat; healthy inventory; targets revenue to exceed Rmb30b by FY25/26. INDONESIA Strategy Investors Feedback To 2H24 Strategy: Our top picks are BBRI, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, CMRY, ACES and JSMR. We have an end-24 target of 7,800 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results Sapura Energy (SAPE MK/HOLD/RM0.04/Target: RM0.06): 1QFY24: Core loss expected due to weak rig EBITDA, though this is temporary. SAPE made progress in c...
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
Telecommunications - 1Q24: Results In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesa...
1Q24: Results In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G In 2H24 1Q24 results were within expectations with earnings growth of 14% yoy on the back of a 2% service revenue growth, higher wholesale income (as TM and TIME benefit from burgeoning data centre build-ups) and good cost discipline. We expect the sector to transition to a dual wholesale network by 21 June. Key events to look out for in 2H24 include: a) fixed-line price competition, and b) synergistic savings from CelcomDigi. Ma...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 12, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential spending, and lower-tier cities lead growth. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp4,300/Target: Rp4,300) Issuance of new shares to complete the divestment process. MALAYSIA Sector Telecommunications 1Q24 earnings up 14% yoy on the back ...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
6012 MAXIS BHD.
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
INCO VALE INDONESIA
6888 AXIATA GROUP BHD.
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
BRC BRC ASIA LTD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
CK CH. KARNCHANG PUBLIC CO LTD
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
TIMECOM 029 GROUP SE
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - 1Q24: In Line; Earnings Driven By Gross Synergy ...
1Q24: In Line; Earnings Driven By Gross Synergy Savings CelcomDigi’s 1Q24 net profit rose 18% yoy but fell 14% qoq to RM377m. This included a RM140m VSS cost booked in the quarter. Stripping this out, 1Q24 core net profit came in at RM487m (-5% yoy; -3% qoq), in line with expectations. The group estimates 2024 gross synergy of RM700m, partly offset by network integration cost. Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of RM4.50. The stock trades at 9x EV/EBITDA, -1SD below its five-year mean, ...
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