Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK95.00) - Headwinds for Recycling

Recycling reported disappointing Q1 adj. EBITA of NOK7m on lower revenues, which also hurt margins. Given the solid order intake – a bright spot in the report – we have only reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%. We struggle to justify the 2024e P/E of 39x (similar to the ‘Magnificent 7’, with ~20% average annual growth rates) coupled with 2024e revenue growth of only ~3–4% and risk to 2025–2026e growth from potential delays in Poland and the UK’s DRS implementations. We reiterate our SELL and NOK9...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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Equinor : Q1 2024 results top expectations thanks to solid cash flow

>Q1 2023 results 5% ahead of expectations at the operating level and 26% at the net income level - Q1 2024 adjusted EBIT totalled $ 7.5bn, 5% above the consensus, and adjusted net profit was $ 2.57bn, 26% above expectations, with an effective tax rate of 65.8% vs 78% in Q3, with a pleasant surprise in MM&P.Earnings buoyed by the good performance from MM&P - Earnings for the E&P division totalled $ 6.75bn (vs $ 8.4bn in Q4), down by 20% q-o-q and in...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

Equinor (Hold, TP: NOK300.00) - Upside still hinges on discipline

Equinor reported Q1 adj. EBIT 3% above our estimate and 5% above company-compiled consensus. Moreover, FCF was exceptionally strong at USD6.3bn, albeit helped by USD3.2bn in a working capital tailwind, which to our understanding is unlikely to reverse. We have increased our 2024e FCF to USD11bn (~13% FCF yield), which would leave Equinor with a ~USD3bn net cash position by year-end. Consequently, we expect this to trigger an extension of extraordinary dividends into 2025, which should be welcome...

Equinor : Résultats T1 supérieurs aux attentes – Cash-flow solide

>Des résultats T1 2024 5% supérieurs aux attentes au niveau opérationnel et 26% au niveau du RN - L’EBIT ajusté du T1 2024 s’est établi à 7.5 Md$, 5% supérieur au consensus et le résultat net ajusté à 2.57 Md$, 26% supérieur aux attentes avec un taux d’impôts effectif à 65.8% vs 78% au T3 avec une bonne surprise dans MM&P.Des résultats aidés par la bonne performance de MM&P - Le bénéfice de l'E&P ressort à 6.75 Md$ (vs 8.4 Md$ au T4) en baisse de 2...

The weekly navigator

The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we raised our target price on Investor to SEK290 (260) as we see continued outperformance characteristics; 2) we cut our target price on Kinnevik to SEK135 (140) but reiterated our BUY, as we see continuously declining writedown risk in a more concentrated growth portfolio; and 3) VNV Global reported an unchanged Q1 NAV QOQ in USD terms.

The last strong FCF quarter for a long time

Q1 was solid. Tax and capex will be higher, FCF lower. We stick to SELL, TP to NOK 285 (275) on slightly higher estimates.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Equinor : Q1 results beat expectations by 5% at the operating level an...

>A 5% beat on operating profit and 26% on adjusted net income - Q1 2024 adjusted EBIT came in at $ 7.53bn (vs $ 8.68bn in Q4; -13.2% q-o-q), 4% above our estimates and 5% ahead of consensus. Production declined by 1.3% q-o-q and was in line with expectations and expected to remain flat in 2024 vs 2023. Adjusted net income was robust at $ 2.574bn (vs $ 1.88bn in Q4), 26% above the consensus with a lower-than-expected effective tax rate at 65.8% vs 72% expected. §h...

Equinor : Q1 results beat expectations by 5% at the operating level an...

>A 5% beat on operating profit and 26% on adjusted net income - Q1 2024 adjusted EBIT came in at $ 7.53bn (vs $ 8.68bn in Q4; -13.2% q-o-q), 4% above our estimates and 5% ahead of consensus. Production declined by 1.3% q-o-q and was in line with expectations and expected to remain flat in 2024 vs 2023. Adjusted net income was robust at $ 2.574bn (vs $ 1.88bn in Q4), 26% above the consensus with a lower-than-expected effective tax rate at 65.8% vs 72% expected. §h...

Assa Abloy (Buy, TP: SEK345.00) - “Boring” is good

The Q1 report was undramatic. Predictable and stable quarterly reports have been part of what made Assa Abloy a favoured stock in the past, and after a few years of higher volatility, we view the “return to boring quarters” as positive – letting long-term growth be the key attraction of the story instead. We have made minor changes to our estimates and reiterate our BUY and SEK345 target price. At a 2024e EV/EBIT of 16.3x (14.6x in 2025e), we like the valuation, especially considering the sector...

EBIT 5-7% above estimates

Assa Abloy : Start of year in decline (-4% by volume), set to mark low...

>Q1 2024: volumes at -4% for top line, but margins still very solid - The group’s Q1 2024 results, reported yesterday morning, were in line with expectations at the operating level. Revenues came in 2% lower in organic terms, with -4% of volume effect (4th straight quarter of negative volumes, after -2% in Q4) and +2% of price effect.Adjusted EBIT came to SEK 5.4bn, up 4.6%, while the margin narrowed 60bp to 15.4%, just ahead of expectations (15.2%). The acquisit...

Assa Abloy : Un début d’année en recul (-4% en volumes), qui devrait m...

>Un T1 2024 : volume à -4% en topline, mais la marge reste très solide - Le groupe a publié hier matin des résultats T1 2024 en ligne avec les attentes au niveau opérationnel. Le chiffre d’affaires recule de 2% en organique, dont -4% d’effet volumes (4ème trimestre consécutif de volumes négatifs, après -2% au T4) et +2% d’effet prix.L’EBIT ajusté atteint 5.4 MdSEK, en hausse de 4.6%. La marge de 15.4% est en retrait de 60 pb et légèrement supérieure aux attentes ...