A director at International Steels Ltd sold 125,000 shares at 60.020PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...
Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited announced its 4QFY23 results, where the company posted an earnings of PkR834mn (EPS: PkR2.48), marking a 36% decrease compared to PkR1.31bn (EPS: PkR3.89) last quarter. This decline is majorly attributable to an increase in finance cost compared to last quarter, clocking in at PkR1.5bn (up by 49%QoQ). The company also announced a cash dividend of PKR3.2/sh whereas the dividend for FY22 was PkR3/sh. Topline for the quarter increased by 10%QoQ to PkR18....
MUGHAL has posted 3QFY23 NPAT of PKR1.3bn (EPS: PKR3.89), up 56% YoY and 10% QoQ. The result came in well above our projected NPAT of PKR0.4bn (EPS: PKR1.32), due to: higher-than-expected gross margins. This result takes 9MFY23 NPAT to PKR2.6bn (EPS: PKR7.89), down 39% YoY. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 3QFY23 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue clocked in at PKR17.2bn, up 14% YoY and 25% QoQ – in line with our expectations. The QoQ increase is despite the decline in sales volumes, where multiple price hikes and...
ASTL has posted NPAT of PKR476mn (EPS: PKR1.60) in 3QFY23 versus a loss of PKR389mn (LPS: PKR1.31) in the last quarter. The result came in higher than our expected EPS of PKR0.71, where major deviation stemmed from higher-than-expected GMs and lower finance cost. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 3QFY23 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue clocked in at PKR11.7bn, down 12% QoQ and 27% YoY. Decline in revenue is mainly led by sluggish demand amid lower construction activity and PSDP allocation. We expected net sales ...
International Steels Ltd (ISL) has posted NPAT of PKR1.5bn (EPS: PKR3.48) in 3QFY23 compared to NLAT of PKR388mn (LPS: PKR0.89) in 2QFY23. The result came in much higher than our projected EPS of PKR1.00, with major variance stemming from higher than expected revenues, owing to higher volumetric sales and increased gross margins too. This takes 9MFY23 NPAT to PKR1.6bn (EPS: PKR3.62), down 71% YoY. Key takeaways from 3QFY23 results: * Net revenue has clocked in at PKR23.9bn, up c.37% QoQ but ...
LOWER DEMAND AND INVENTORY LOSSES TO DENT PROFITABILITY * IMS Steel Universe is expected to post a cumulative NPAT of c.PKR1.1bn in 3QFY23, compared to losses of PKR0.3bn in the last quarter. Higher steel product prices and inventory gains amid rupee devaluation are expected to uplift quarterly earnings. * Multiple price hikes of rebar and CRC are likely to increase sector gross margins by 6ppt to 12%. However, depressed demand, import restrictions and rising energy cost may pose a ris...
ASTL has posted net loss of PKR389mn (LPS: PKR1.31) in 2QFY23 from EPS of PKR2.03 SPLY. The loss can be attributed to massive rise in COGS due to stock pile up and elevated finance cost. This result wiped out the profits from last quarter and takes 1HFY23 into NLAT of PKR185mn (LPS: PKR0.62) from EPS of PKR7.80 in 1HFY22. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 2QFY23 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue clocked in at PKR13.2bn down 11% YoY, but up 44% QoQ in 2QFY23. The sequential increase in revenue is led by improvement...
MUGHAL: FY22 Analyst Briefing Takeaways To recall, company posted consolidated PAT of PkR5.4bn (EPS: PkR16.12) for FY22 against PAT of PkR3.4bn (EPS: PkR10.22) SPLY, up 58% YoY. The main markets of the company are domestic housing sector both in urban (rebar) and rural areas (girder), and the international market for copper ingots, which is majorly exported to China. Company has been continuously involved in efficient supply chain management through various initiatives e.g. strong retail net...
Amreli Steels Limited (ASTL) held its analyst briefing earlier today, wherein the following was discussed: To recall, the company posted PAT of PkR1.3bn (EPS: PkR4.46) for FY22, lower by 3%YoY compared to the same period last year. ASTL’s Net sales for the year were PkR58.1bn, higher by 48%YoY. Despite declining volumes, the risen revenue was majorly due to higher retention prices. However, gross margins for the quarter remained under pressure due to sky rocketing scrap prices, peaking a...
MUGHAL posted a profit of PKR872mn (EPS: PKR2.60) for 1QFY23, down 48% YoY and 5% QoQ. Profits are above our expected EPS of PKR1.43, where the major deviation stemmed from higher-than-expected gross margins and other income. Despite softer demand and surging interest rate, the company was able to produce a decent result. Key Observations: * Revenue has clocked in at PKR14.1bn, flat QoQ and down 26% YoY, lower than our expected revenue of PKR15bn. Lower-than-expected volumes majorly led to t...
ASTL has posted NPAT of PKR204mn (EPS: PKR0.69) in 1QFY23, down 71% YoY, while halving QoQ. The 1Q result has come in higher than our projected EPS of PKR0.33, where the variance emanated from higher-than-expected gross margins and low effective tax rate. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 1QFY23 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue has clocked in at PKR9.8bn (down 17% YoY), significantly lower than our expected revenue of PKR12bn. The decline in revenues is majorly attributed to lower-than-expected volumetric sales. ...
International Steels Ltd (ISL) has posted NPAT of PKR448mn (EPS: PKR1.03) in 1QFY23, down a sharp 83% YoY. That said, the 1Q result has come in higher than our expected EPS of PKR0.78, where lower distribution cost more than offset a miss on gross margins. Key Highlights: * Net revenue has clocked in at PKR16.5bn, down 32% YoY (down 21% QoQ), lower than our expectation of PKR17.9bn, amid lower volumetric offtake. This is possibly attributed to lower production volumes of 2/3 wheelers and whi...
* IMS Steel Universe is expected to post cumulative NPAT of c.PKR1.6bn in 1QFY23, down 55% QoQ (-82% YoY), amid lower margins, inventory & exchange losses, and elevated finance cost. * We expect gross margins of the IMS Steel Universe to remain flat QoQ, but down 3.8ppt YoY due to (i) lower offtake due to floods and elevated construction costs, (ii) elevated power and fuel cost, and (iii) inventory losses from flat steel due to decline in HRC-CRC spreads in case of ISL. * IMS Steel...
ISL held its Analyst Briefing Session today to discuss the recent financial performance, also painting a lackluster outlook for FY23 amid monsoon flooding. To recall, ISL posted a dull EPS of PKR0.13 in 4QFY22 (FY22 EPS of PKR12.44), despite healthy gross margin, which were overshadowed by the sharp decline in volumetric sales and inflated operating cost. Going forward, FY23 is positioned to be a challenging year, owing to expectations of depressed demand. GUIDANCE FOR FUTURE SALES AND PROFIT...
MUGHAL posted a profit of PKR1.0bn (EPS: PKR3.10) for 4QFY22, up from PKR0.8bn (EPS: PKR2.50) last quarter. This has translated FY22 NPAT to PKR5.4bn (EPS: PKR16.12), c.13% up from SPLY. The announcement is against our earnings expectation of PKR2.25/sh, where the major deviation stemmed from lower than expected tax rate (28.7%) and finance cost. Despite a dampened demand outlook and surging interest rate the company was able to produce an impressive result, albeit opting out of a final cash ...
International Steels Ltd (ISL) has posted NPAT of PKR57mn (EPS: PKR0.13) in 4QFY22, down a sharp 95%/98% QoQ/YoY. The 4Q result has come significantly lower than our expected EPS of PKR1.21, where deviation was majorly attributed to lower-than-expected sales volume and higher opex. This takes FY22 EPS to PKR12.44, down c.28% YoY. ISL also announced a final cash dividend of PKR4.5/sh, beating our DPS expectation of PKR2.0 (FY22 DPS of PKR6.5/sh). KEY HIGHLIGHTS: * Net revenue has clocked in ...
ASTL posted a loss of PKR509mn (LPS: PKR1.71) for 4QFY22, down from a NPAT of PKR531mn (EPS: PKR1.79) last quarter. This has taken FY22 NPAT to PKR1.3bn (EPS: PKR4.61), c.3% down from SPLY. The announcement is against our positive earnings expectation of PKR1.23/sh, with major deviation stemming from a variance in volumetric sales, PKR devaluation affected scrap costs, and blistering electricity cost related Fuel Cost Adjustments (FCA). Recent adverse monsoon spells have put ASTL to reduce pr...
IMS Steel Universe is expected to post cumulative NPAT of c.PKR1.6bn in 4QFY22, down 34% QoQ, as slower volumes amid elevated construction cost and one-off tax implications will drag profits. We expect gross margins of long steel companies will hold up due to i) sequential increase in rebar prices, and ii) mild softening in international scrap prices. Similarly, flat steel margins are likely to improve sequentially, due to relaying of costs and high inventory levels. Despite the series of pri...
AKD Daily Pakistan Metal: Global metal prices are in place International aluminum/zinc/lead/nickel prices have started mean reversion, contracting 35/19/17/48% from their peak in Mar-Apr’22, depicting signs of metal commodities upcycle losing stream. Moreover, scrap has also accompanied these industrial metals where it has lost 45% from its peak of US$700/ton to US$385/ton which bodes well for local long steel manufacturers (MUGHAL, ASTL, AGHA, and ITTEFAQ). On the local front, rebar pric...
AKD Daily MUGHAL & ASTL: Projections incorporating macro-developments · We revisit our investment case for MUGHAL and ASTL where we revised our target prices to PkR94/sh and PkR35/sh from PKR140/sh and PkR57/sh for MUGHAL and ASTL, respectively. Incorporating RF of 15.5% and PkR/US$ of 198/210 in FY23/24F. · We expect the earnings outlook for MUGHAL and ASTL to remain dreary in FY23 with the companies expected to see a volumetric decline of 10-12%YoY to 280-340K tons in rebar/girder dispatches f...
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