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Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pioneer Cement: 3QFY23 Review - Lower offtake reduced profits; in line

Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC) has posted NPAT of PKR950mn (EPS: PKR4.18) for 3QFY23 up 96% YoY but down 19% QoQ, in line with our expected earnings of PKR940mn (EPS: PKR4.14). 9MFY23 net profits stand at PKR2.7bn (EPS: PKR11.91), up 66% YoY. KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 3QFY23 RESULTS: * Net sales have increased by 18% YoY but are down 11% QoQ to PKR9.1bn in 3QFY23. The QoQ decline in revenue is due to lower volumes by 14% to 0.68mn tons. We expected a topline of PKR9.7bn. * Gross margins have increas...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pioneer Cement: 2QFY23 Review - Higher-than-expected margins lead to e...

Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC) has posted NPAT of PKR1.2bn (EPS: PKR5.17) for 2QFY23 up 22% YoY and 101% QoQ. This came in much better than our estimated EPS of PKR3.71, with higher-than-expected margins leading to the deviation. 1HFY23 net profits stand at PKR1.8bn (EPS: PKR7.75), up 54% YoY. KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 2QFY23 RESULTS: * Net sales have increased by 20% YoY and 24% QoQ to PKR10.3bn in 2QFY23. The QoQ increase in revenue is due to higher volumes and retention prices, in our view. We expecte...

Wajid Rizvi
  • Wajid Rizvi

Pakistan E&Ps: Unwarranted valuations despite cash-flow constraints

We raise our E&P estimates on higher assumed oil prices, which we now forecast at USD80/70LT per barrel for FY23/24f, as against USD60/60LT earlier. Our earnings estimates have increased by 10-20% on average for these years and we reiterate our Overweight stance on E&Ps. We believe that government’s efforts to resolve the accumulation of circular debt has been underappreciated where stocks have underperformed oil price by 16% in the last 1 year. More positives have risen from currency devalua...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pioneer Cement: 1QFY23 Review - Topline beat and flattish margins

Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC) has posted NPAT of PKR0.6mn (EPS: PKR2.58) for 1QFY23 up 22% YoY, higher than our esimated NPAT of PKR0.5bn (EPS: PKR2.12). A higher-than-expected topline led to the deviation. Key observations * Net sales have increased by 34% YoY but are down 11% QoQ to PKR8.3bn in 1QFY22, higher than our expected revenue of PKR7.9bn. The increase in QoQ revenue majorly stemmed from a 14% QoQ increase in retention prices, in our view. * Gross margins have reduced by 0.6ppt Yo...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pioneer Cement: 4QFY22 Review - Higher tax dents better operating perf...

Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC) has posted a loss of PKR0.6mn (LPS: PKR2.57) for 4QFY22 from an EPS of PKR3.84 in 4QFY21. Whereas, we estimated NPAT of PKR0.4bn (EPS: PKR1.58). Higher-than-expected effective tax rate led to losses. However, the company’s gross margins and operating profits have improved significantly during the quarter. The result takes net profits in FY22 to PKR1.0bn (EPS: PKR4.62), down 47% YoY. Key observations * Net sales have increased by 51% YoY and 21% QoQ to PKR9.3bn in 4Q...

Trg Pakistan Limited: 1 director

A director at Trg Pakistan Limited sold 105,000 shares at 114.860PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

Wajid Rizvi
  • Wajid Rizvi

Pakistan Petroleum: FY22 Review: Abysmally low 4Q earning from excessi...

PPL announced FY22 PAT of PKR 53.5bn (EPS: PKR 19.68) which puts 4Q earnings at PKR 1.2bn (EPS: PKR 0.45). Abysmally lower-than-expected 4Q earnings (IMS expectation of PKR4.12/share) is a result of exceptionally high exploration costs and super tax. This has also dented the expected payout as company announced PKR0.5/share as final dividend, taking FY22 DPS to PKR2.00/share. This is the lowest payout ever made by PPL for any quarter. KEY HIGHLIGHTS: * Net sales clocked in at PKR61.77bn for ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Range bound activity witnessed,(AKD Technical Daily May 31, 20...

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Range bound activity witnessed The index opened with a positive bias and remained bullish throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 398pts and concluded with a gain of 179pts to settle at 43,040pts level. The volumes witnessed in the last trading session were comparatively lower than the previous trading session. Bollinger Bands are 49.81% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared t...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (May 27, 2022)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 Week started on a bad note with the market declining by 1.5% on the first trading day as clarity regarding the IMF and subsequently fate of the currency remained unclear. Investors remained hopeful regarding IMF’s positive nod in the meetings with the country’s officials which were due to be conclude on 25th May (Wednesday). For this reason, market remained choppy throughout the first half of the week. When the t...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Range bound activity witnessed ,(AKD Technical Daily May 23, 2...

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100:Range bound activity witnessed The index opened on a positive note and remained volatile throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 204pts, a low of 45pts and concluded with a gain of 117pts to settle at 43,101pts level. The local bourse traded in a range with a slight improvement of volumes in comparison to previous trading session.  The MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. During the last ten trading s...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pioneer Cement: 3QFY22 Review - Higher tax rate leads to earnings miss

Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC) has posted a NPAT of PKR485mn (EPS: PKR2.14) for 3QFY22, down 29% yoy and 27% qoq. The result has come in lower than our estimated NPAT of PKR567mn (EPS: PKR2.49). Higher-than-expected effective tax rate is the major deviation. The result takes net profits in 9MFY22 to PKR1.6bn (EPS: PKR7.17), up 26% yoy. KEY RESULT HIGHLIGHTS FOR 3QFY22: * Net sales have increased by 23% yoy but are down 10% qoq to PKR7.7bn in 3QFY22, in line with our expected revenue of PKR7.8bn. ...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pakistan Cements: Slower demand and elevated costs will reduce sector ...

IMS Cement Universe cumulative core profits are expected to decline sharply by c.18%/38% qoq/yoy to PKR7.7bn in 3QFY22, from PKR9.6bn in 2QFY22 and PKR13.1bn in 3QFY21. Despite better retention prices and import of coal from Afghanistan, lower utilization levels during the winter season and elevated international coal and oil prices will reduce sequential gross margins, by c.5ppt. Therefore net profits are estimated to decline. During the quarter, IMS Cement cluster declined by 5.8%, underper...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pakistan Cement: Valuations are attractive despite imminent risks

* We are revising estimates for our Cement coverage led by (i) elevated international energy prices, (ii) slower demand growth amid rising construction cost and lower government spending, (iii) inclusion of new expansions, and (iv) potential resumption of monetary tightening. * We assume that local cement demand growth will be flat in FY22f and expect an increase of 3%/5% yoy in FY23/24f, much lower than our previous growth estimates and also past 20yr average. Besides demand, major thr...

Muhammad Saad Ali
  • Muhammad Saad Ali

Pakistan: OGDC and PPL venture into the promising Reko Diq mining proj...

A RECONSTITUTED PROJECT… Oil & Gas Development Co. (OGDC) and Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) have entered into a non-binding agreement with the Government of Pakistan (GoP), Government of Baluchistan (GoB) and Barrick Gold Corporation to participate in the reconstituted Reko Diq project. As per the arrangement, Barrick Gold will have 50% stake in the project – along with being the operator and manager of the mining field. The remaining 50% stake will be divided among the GoB – 10% as free-carry...

Muhammad Saad Ali
  • Muhammad Saad Ali

Pakistan Petroleum: 2QFY22 review – Misses expectation on one-time cha...

Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) has posted net profits of PKR14.3bn (EPS: PKR5.25) for 2QFY22, down 15% qoq but up 21% yoy; which misses our EPS estimate of PKR6.80 due to higher exploration expenses and share of loss from PIOL (without which 2Q EPS would have been PKR6.74/sh). The result takes 1HFY22 net profits to PKR31.1bn (EPS: PKR11.44), up 19% yoy. PPL also announced an interim payout of PKR1.5/sh, in line with expectations; it will be the first interim payout since 2018. KEY HIGHLIGHTS FO...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pioneer Cement: 2QFY22 Review: Lower-than-expected sales lead to earni...

Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC) has posted a NPAT of PKR663mn (EPS: PKR2.92) for 2QFY22, up 3% yoy and 38% qoq. Same period last year, PIOC had booked a one-time tax credit of PKR235mn, which helped the company to post decent profits; hence the yoy growth is modest. The result has come in slightly lower than our estimated net profits of PKR752mn (EPS: PKR3.31). Lower-than-expected sales is the major deviation. The result takes net profits in 1HFY22 to PKR1,143mn (EPS: PKR5.03), up 88% yoy. KEY RESU...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Dec 31, 2021)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 In the closing week of CY21, market remained almost flat throughout the week, gaining just 1.08%WoW to close in at 44,596 points level. This took the cumulative performance throughout CY21 to 1.92% whereas the dollar adjusted return currently stands at –ve 8.52%. The volumes also remained flattish on WoW bases where ADT was recorded at 217.99mn shares as opposed to 215.43mn shares, down 1.2%WoW. The performance du...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Dec 24, 2021)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 Market remained flat throughout the week, gaining 0.5%WoW to close in at 44,118 points level. This took the cumulative performance throughout CY21 to 0.8% whereas the dollar adjusted return currently stands at –ve 9%. Volumes dried up significantly on WoW bases where ADT was recorded at 215mn shares as opposed to 265mn shares, down 18.7%WoW. The performance during the week was dictated by the news-flows related to...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Dec 17, 2021)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 Ending an otherwise volatile week, the KSE-100 index closed at 43,901pts, +1.2%WoW – the steepest performance in the past 4 weeks, with the catalyst being the forward guidance by the Central Bank. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SBP delivered another 100bps hike, taking the policy rate to 9.75%, and communicated to “pause” monetary settings in the near term, expecting recent policy decisions to moderate...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Dec 10, 2021)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 After taking a heavy beating during last week on the back of high trade deficit for Nov’21, market took a breather on the first trading session of the week while in the second session, the news of assistance from Saudi Arabia being deposited into SBP’s account provided some relief and the market rallied 1.3% during the session. However, towards later part of the week, market set its sight on the upcoming monetary ...

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