Demand recovery continues to be delayed

Still our top pick of the international drillers

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

The token is the new transistor… on steroids – Facts & implications

We now have 2 years of history on how OpenAI has been able to optimise a generation of models with GPT4. We have gathered the data onto a chart and offer our thoughts on implications for the industry and what comes next on a single slide. Please see the link below for more details.

Welcomed tender from Petrobras

Updates suggest Petrobras yesterday launched a new tender for “one or more” deepwater rigs for the Buzios field starting late-2026/early-2027. As it has been a while since the last Petrobras tender, and there has been uncertainty related to the timing of upcoming tenders, we believe a new Petrobras tender would offer relief for investors. As we count nine rigs already contracted with Petrobras to match the start-up window, we expect the requirement would be filled by rigs already in the country,...

TSMC: AI still very strong; unchanged FY25 guide reflects tariffs caut...

TSMC reported 1Q25 this morning. Please see the attached article for our take on the print.

Tariffs & Broadcom: the baseline & what’s next:

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis, to evaluate the impact on Broadcom with more precision. This follows our recent deep dive on the impact on Nvidia

Looking at required day-rates

Although there are several ongoing deepwater tenders, the lack of recent deepwater fixtures has created uncertainty among investors related to day-rates. Consequently, we have analysed the required day-rates to support current share prices and valuations. Given the high operating leverage and multiple variables involved (utilisation, lifetime and cost of capital), we estimate the sector requires 7G drillship day-rates from the mid-USD300k and above to support the current share prices.

Tariffs – How would a recession affect our coverage?

The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.

March Sales Review

Semiconductors in the crash: Relative valuations walked back 15 years...

As we brace for another tough Monday, we share with you this morning our usual quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis, although, this time, in light of the steep pullback of the last couple of days, and the last couple of months. Over the next 30 slides. We did our best to articulate our expectations for earnings revisions with where we stand on valuation already, and the fundamental backdrop, segment by segment. We conclude with a very...

Tariffs. Figuring the right baseline to assess implications

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. We chose to help layout a simple and strong analytical baseline to understand the first-order impact of tariffs on our coverage. In a few slides we have summarised the groundwork and look forward to continuing the work and help our readers make sense of implications in weeks to come.

E&P spending sensitivity explored

With an oil price at the mid-USD60s/bbl level, focus on the oil major overspending situation, and resulting impact on the outlook for offshore-focused oil services, is set to increase further. While oil companies would likely cut, or even eliminate, buyback programmes first, we expect increased focus on spending reductions and efficiencies, creating a more challenging business environment for oil services. Hence, we see a risk of oil companies taking a more cautious approach, resulting in projec...

Making sure you saw this - Intel Vision: Where do we stand? What matte...

Making sure you saw our note on Intel prior to the Intel Vision event. Intel Vision will feature the first keynote of Lip-Bu Tan, the incoming CEO. We take the opportunity to review where things stand and options ahead.