Service revenue trends slowed in Q1 amid macro headwinds, but EBITDA returned to growth. This continued to drive earnings and therefore dividend growth. With capex continuing to fall in absolute terms, the Chinese telcos continue to look cheap. For investors unable to access this space, we recommend to monitor the developments in China as we see it as a leading indicator for EM telcos more broadly.
In 1Q25, earnings under our coverage are at Bt201.14b (-0.1% yoy, +46.2% qoq). The qoq increase was due to seasonality. The banking, telecommunications and consumer staples sectors reported remarkable results. For 2025 we reduce earnings growth by 3.8%, but opportunities remain in domestic and external plays. Overall, we lower 2025F EPS to Bt80 from Bt94and our SET target to 1,280 (from 1,500 in 1Q25) based on 16.0x forward PE. Top picks are ADVANC, RATCH, BCH, IVL, PTTGC.
MTN Rwanda has reported a somewhat mixed set of Q1 numbers. On the one hand, service revenue trends slowed, impacted by strong competition. On the other hand, EBITDA growth is back into positive territory and low capex spend this quarter translated into solid OpFCF
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. Sector Aviation Airlines: 1Q25 results below expectations. Weak fuel prices to support full-year performance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Strategy 1Q25 Results Recap ...
Chinese Telcos saw service revenue return to mid-single digits growth in 4Q24. Despite a blip in EBITDA trend, the industry ended 2024 with 6% earnings growth which translated to higher dividend payouts (CM: 73%, CT: 72%, CU: 60%).
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon tariff pressures. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp348/Target: Rp480) Iphone 16 series to be available in 2Q25. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Matrix Concepts Holdings (MCH MK/BUY/RM1.27/Target: RM1.66) We view the RPT deal as fair and strategic as the acquisition allows Matrix to see faster ro...
ADVANC's 1Q25 net profit is projected to rise 14% yoy and 4% qoq to Bt9.76b, mainly on the back of revenue improvement and cost reduction. We estimate 1Q25 revenue at Bt55.4b (+4% yoy, -2% qoq), supported by the mobile and FBB businesses. EBITDA margin should be strong due to the high base of SG&A in 4Q24 brought about by increased performance-based staff costs, the impact of TTTBB consolidation, and provisions for obsolete assets. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt330.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Selective Buy On Individual Stocks We maintain our cautiously optimistic view on the Thai equities market in Apr 25. We decide to take profit on TFG and cut losses on CPALL and MAJOR. We also add ADVANC, BJC, and PTTEP. Update Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt281.00/Target: Bt330.00) Expect strong 1Q25 earnings on revenue improvement and cost reduction.
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming: Mar 25 GGR slightly above expectations. MALAYSIA Results Yinson Holdings (YNS MK/BUY/RM2.20/Target: RM3.15): FY25: FPSO income misses expectations against the lower income base as per its inaugural Enterprise Reporting, and higher-than-expected financing costs. Update IJM Corporation (IJM MK/BUY/RM2.10/Target: RM3.00): Prospects remain resilient with a robust pipeline of infrastructure and industrial contract flows. Maintain BUY and target price of RM3.00. SI...
Trends continued to benefit from last July’s tariff hike with sustained margin expansion across all three operators. Capex intensity is expected to moderate further for Bharti as network build decelerates, whereas VIL would accelerate its spending on the back of its 5G launch in March. India’s FWA development remains promising, with potential positive implications on EM Telcos
Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.
ADVANC’s 4Q24 net profit of Bt9.3b is in line with our forecast but exceeds consensus by 5%. Net profit grew strongly (+32% yoy, +5% qoq), driven by higher revenue, improved gross margin and a lower SG&A-to-sales. The ARPU trend continued to rise qoq due to seasonal effects. 2024 full-year earnings totalled Bt35.0b (+32% yoy). We expect ADVANC’s earnings growth to continue in 2025. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt330.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB/BUY/Bt280.00/Target: Bt330.00) 4Q24: Results in line with our forecast but above consensus. Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB/BUY/Bt17.40/Target: Bt22.00) 4Q24: Results in line; impressive recovery momentum. SVI (SVI TB/BUY/Bt6.90/Target: Bt8.00) 4Q24: Earnings improve qoq and yoy, above expectations. Update Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.74/Target: Bt5.00...
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