Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) released preliminary January production figures for the NCS, showing a 6.5% YOY decline, with overall production at 4.17mmboed on weaker gas output. Uncertainty remains over Kurdistan oil exports, with reports suggesting a potential March restart, although Turkey has yet to receive confirmation. In exploration, the NOD confirmed the Bounty Updip prospect as dry.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 21/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Very high flow rate at bypassed zone boosts production and unlocks reserves - A potential bypassed 60 m gas pay section, identified using advanced cased-hole logging tools and reprocessed existing 3-D seismic data, was put in production over a 23 m perforated interval at a rate of 1,100 boe/d, increasing to 1,300 boe/d over the past five days as the completion fluid has been ...

January NCS production down YOY

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary January NCS figures showed liquids production of 1,990kboed (0.5% above its forecast) and soft gas production of 346mcm/d (2.6% below its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed (1% below its forecast), down 2.8% MOM and 6.5% YOY. Company-wise, December production should be well known following the Q4 results for our NCS coverage.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, Aker BP reported solid Q4 results, with 2025 production guidance in line with our estimates and consensus, although 2025 capex was slightly above. Vår Energi reported softer Q4 results than expected but raised its quarterly dividend from USD270m to USD300m (~15% yield). However, we remain cautious on long-term dividend sustainability, given the expected decline in FCF from 2027e due to raised capex guidance. Meanwhile, BlueNord announced its first dividend of USD215m (~15% yield), sch...

Energy Morning - 14 February 2025

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk, shallow gas - ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities. One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production. ...

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Gas development capex only US$3-5 m...

• FY25 oil production is expected to be 1,000-1,200 bbl/d with 8-12 work-overs costing US$0.04-0.07 mm per well (total of US$0.32-US$0.84 mm). This in line with our expectations (1,150 bbl/d production and ~US$1 mm capex). • The capex requirement to reach first gas in 1Q26 at SE MGH based on modular LNG is now estimated at US$3-5 mm (we assumed US$5 mm). This is significantly lower than the initial estimate of US$14 mm, which included the construction of a short pipeline to the main trunk. Resta...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/13/2025

Quality at a very attractive valuation

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/02/2025

Aker BP : Q4 results in line, a period of heavy capex followed by an u...

Aker BP : Résultats du T4 en ligne, une phase de Capex lourds suivie d...

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Set for operating tailwinds in 2025

Aker BP reported Q4 EBITDA slightly above our forecast and consensus. For 2025, the production was guided at 390–420kboed, capturing our estimate of 418kboed and consensus of 407kboed, while capex for 2025 edged slightly higher than expected. Still, we find Aker BP attractively valued, trading at a P/NAV of ~0.95x and a dividend yield of 11%, with dividends set to grow by 5% YOY over the few next years. We reiterate our BUY and NOK280 target price.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): New acreage in Austria increases prospect inven...

• ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities. • One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production. ADX has more than tripled the number of these prospects within its revised acreage positions at ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II, holding 100% WI in the new prospects. A typical well at a shallow gas prospect has an...

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): 245% Reserves Replacement Ratio. 2C Resourc...

• YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 50 mmbbl (up from 38 mmbbl at YE23). This represents a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 245%, significantly above our expectations of ~100%. • The reserves revision reflects (1) upward revision of STOIIP estimates (the high achieved recovery factors suggest that the volumes initially in place had been underestimated), (ii), positive drilling results which reflect Valeura's application of advanced drilling and completion technologies including geosteering and inf...

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: EnQuest Plc, Rexel, United Group, Telecom Italia, PHM Group, Huhtamaki, Best Secret (Schustermann & Borenstein), Solenis, Iceland Foods, Asmodee, Axactor, Hurtigruten, Hapag-Lloyd

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Frontera Energy, Brava Energia, KUO, Buenaventura, EPM, Nexa, Minerva

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/12/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 12/02/2025