JOG has released its full year results to the end of December 2024. These reiterate the company’s significant cash position and the optionality this affords, alongside acting as a reminder of the company’s attractive asset position, including a full carry on its 20% stake in the >70mmbbl Buchan development project in the UK North Sea.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Adding four low risk drill-ready shallow gas prospects to start drilling by YE25 – ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria. The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin. Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date. The prospects benefit from AVO anomalies, enhanc...
• From January to April 2025, production averaged 26.5 mboe/d. This is consistent with 1Q25 production of 27.6 mboe/d, which benefited from one month of output from Triton. • Repairs at Triton have been completed, and production remains on track to restart in June. The FY25 production guidance of 33–37 mboe/d, with US$220–250 mm in capex, has been reaffirmed. Assuming 2Q25 production of 25 mboe/d (excluding Triton), this implies 2H25 production of 41–47 mboe/d. • The BE01 well (SQZ: 100% WI) has...
• ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria. The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin. Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date. • The prospects benefit from AVO anomalies, enhancing confidence in their potential. Four of these prospects, with a best-case recoverable resource estimate of 16.1 bcf, are drill-ready. ADX holds a 100% interest and is currently in discussions w...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: Recovering 75% WI of licences in Morocco – Energean has returned its Moroccan offshore interests to Chariot. As a result, Chariot now holds 75% in the Lixus Offshore and Rissana Offshore licences. Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Acquiring a LNG facility for Kazakhstan to deliver first LNG sale in 2Q26 – 1Q25 production in Uzbekistan was 11,179 boe/d (+6% vs. production in 4Q24). Condor ...
• Sintana has agreed terms to acquire a 5% net interest in KON-16 onshore Angola from Corcel for US$2.5 mm. In addition, Sintana will receive a 2.5% net profit interest on 71.5% of KON-16 until reaching US$50 mm, after which the net profit interest reduces to 1.5%. • There are multiple post-salt (shallow) and pre-salt (deeper) prospects that were highlighted by 2010 2D seismic. The pre-salt prospects are analogous to what is being developed offshore with significantly lower cost. Corcel, plans t...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...
• The envisaged merger between EnQuest and Serica is not proceeding at this time. Given the drop in Brent since the potential transaction leaked on 7 March, this outcome is unsurprising. Given Serica’s prospects as a standalone company, there was no imperative for the company to force a deal. There are multiple catalysts to the share price in the coming months. • Production at Triton is expected to restart in June. With the W7Z well on the Guillemot North West field (Serica: 10%) and the EV02 we...
• 1Q25 net production was 246 boe/d. This is in line with our expectations. ADX held A$6.7 mm in cash at the end of March. • ADX is prioritizing production growth in Austria, with plans to advance up to 12 shallow gas prospects across ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II where it has varied its exploration acreage to maximise exposure to the proven gas play. The company aims to secure a partner for the first cluster of three prospects in 3Q25, with two of these wells potentially being drilled in 4Q25. • These...
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in G...
• The Capricornus 1-X exploration well on PEL 85 (bp/Eni/Rhino) found 38 m of net pay, with the reservoir showing good petrophysical properties and no observed water contact. The well achieved a surface-constrained flow rate in excess of 11,000 bbl/d. The light 37° API oil exhibited limited associated gas with less than 2% CO2 and no hydrogen sulphide. • There are potential readthroughs for Sintana’s assets. Capricornus-1X is located ~40-50 km south of Mopane-3X that encountered light oil and c...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels. The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir. The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing. The CN ...
• Galp’s independent auditor estimated approximately 700 mmboe of 3C contingent resources net to Galp for Namibia as of the end of November 2024, translating to ~875 mmboe gross 3C contingent resources or 43 mmboe net to Sintana • The resources estimate is based on AVO-1, AVO-2 and AVO-3 and does not include the impact of the results of the Mopane-2A and Mopane-3X wells. Mopane-2A confirmed the lateral extent of AVO-3 and encountered a hydrocarbon column of light oil at AVO-4. Mopane-3X encounte...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.10 per share: Significant power transaction highlights the value of the S. Africa electricity trading business – Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading business (49% held by Chariot) has arranged a US$55 mm guarantee finance facility through Standard Bank and secured an equity investment of up to US$20 mm from Norfund for working capital. In exchange, Standard Bank and Norfund will ho...
• Woodside has elected not to exercise its option to farm into PEL 87. While this decision is disappointing and likely to result in some delays until Pancontinental secures a new partner, it likely reflects Woodside’s increased focus on LNG and its recent reduction in exploration spending. The company is currently advancing three capital-intensive development projects: Scarborough LNG (7.3 Tcf, ~80% complete), Trion Oil (20% complete), and the recently acquired Louisiana LNG expansion. • PEL 87 ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Reserves increase showcases FY24 drilling success – YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase ...
JOG has announced that the agreement for the Buchan JV to acquire the Western Isles FPSO, having reached its longstop date at the end February 2025, has been terminated by Dana KNOC. The Buchan JV continues to work towards FID on Buchan, in the context of continued positive momentum in the UK oil and gas sector, with further government consultations recently launched and news on scope 3 emissions guidance and subsequently long-term tax terms upcoming. In our view, the value and attractiveness of...
Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps @HybridanLLP 3rd March 2025 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement ****Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from the current price on the day o...
JOG has announced a two-year extension to its Buchan license, helping continue to underpin the project as the JV works towards project FID, including awaiting UK government updates on scope 3 emissions and the post 2030 fiscal regime. The project continues to represent an attractive proposition for the JV and for the UK overall. Alongside its Buchan work, JOG is also progressing potential UK acquisitions, which could accelerate cash flows and drive further value.
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