reports
CAPITEC BANK is slightly downgraded to Slightly Positive due to an inc...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of CAPITEC BANK (ZA), active in the Money Center Banks industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title confirms its rating of 3 out of 4 stars while its market behaviour remains unchanged and can be qualified as defensive. However, a marginally less favourable environment forces theScreener to downgrade slightly the title, which now shows an overall rating of Slightly Positive. As of the analysis...
1 director sold
A director at Capitec Bank Holdings Limited sold 34,000 shares at 1,334.500ZAR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...
- Harry Botha
Capitec Bank | Actively managing the book
Capitec's H1 '20 results highlighted that the bank's earnings growth prospects remain strong despite challenging SA economic conditions. Capitec is managing its loan book towards higher quality and higher growth segments of the SA unsecured lending market. Despite 20% CAGR in earnings over the next three years, we find the stock expensive at current levels. In our view, muted SA economic growth and deteriorating consumer credit health represents the greatest threat to Capitec's earnings growt...
- Harry Botha
SA Banks | Resilient earnings growth
We expect the big five SA banks (ABG, CPI, FSR, NED and SBK) to continue reporting earnings growth ahead of SA nominal GDP (forecast 6%) over the next three years. We expect cost containment, retail lending growth, the banks' operations outside SA and SA interest rate cuts (keeping credit impairment charges low) to support earnings growth. We also believe that the diversification of SA banks' corporate lending should result in benign credit write-offs compared to previous cycles. In our view,...
- Harry Botha
SA Banks | Weighing up returns
The big five SA banks (ABG, CPI, FSR, NED and SBK) can each earn returns in excess of the cost of capital through-the-cycle given their scale and profitability, in our view, despite numerous new fintech players. In our analysis, Capitec and FirstRand (FSR) achieved the highest franchise scores while ABSA (ABG) received the lowest score. However, we believe ABG is penalised for historic underperformance. Over the last 18 months, ABG has restructured its segments and the management structures, ...
- Harry Botha
- Warwick Bam
- Harry Botha
Capitec Bank | More growth required
Capitec's FY '19 results pointed to slowing transactional banking revenue growth. Transactional banking revenue growth (29% CAGR) has been pivotal to the bank's revenue ( 17% CAGR after credit impairment charges) and headline earnings growth (18% CAGR) over the last three years. Due to a competitive unsecured lending market and challenging SA employment conditions (elevated risk of retrenchments in 2019), we do not believe Capitec's credit growth can offset transactional banking revenue growth...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Opportunity in EM countries Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. • Opportunity in EM. Both a top-down and bottoms-up analysis po...
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- Harry Botha
SA Banks | Unpacking SA consumer credit
We have used aggregated credit bureau data to analyse important trends in consumer credit in SA. The data shows that SA banks' arrears to advances remain low. However, the operating environment does not support meaningful leading growth. Therefore, we expect SA banks to report flat retail credit impairment charges in H2 ‘18, supporting earnings growth. Please find our analysis and updated forecasts in this report.
- Harry Botha
Capitec Bank | Banking on transactions
Capitec Bank's (CPI) H1 '19 results showed that the bank's transactional banking growth prospects remain strong as the credit business transitions to a lower risk profile. While Capitec's credit card, business banking ambitions and strategy to compete more with secured lending (possibly at lower ROEs) will support advances growth, in our view meaningful advances growth depends on improved SA economic and employment conditions.
- Harry Botha
Capitec Bank | Managing risk
Capitec's FY '18 results highlighted that the bank managed its credit risk appropriately in a muted operating environment. Capitec also provided additional disclosure which further mitigates Viceroy's concerns. Please find our analysis and updated forecasts in this note.
- Harry Botha
Capitec Bank | Viceroy still lacks credibility
Viceroy published a third report on Capitec yesterday. The report makes some concerning claims about Capitec's loan curing (or restructuring), credit extension to distressed or high-risk customers, and debit order disputes. While Viceroy provides some examples, there is no conclusive evidence in the report. Viceroy highlights that they have evidence that they are willing to share with the SARB and NCR. Considering Viceroy's lack of credibility following the first two reports, Viceroy should publ...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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