Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with the local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Given recent news around future interest rate actions by the Fed, we performed a sensitivity analysis to better understand potential AFFO per share implications for each of the three major tower companies. Based on a detailed, tranche by tranche debt analysis, SBAC (Neutral, PT $212) has the largest near-term exposure given its short-term refinancing needs. CCI (Neutral, PT $93) has limited exposure given that we expect its debt reduction using proceeds from its small cells and fiber business sa...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
Indonesia Company Update | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp800/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA is entering a structural earnings upcycle driven by full in-house fleet utilisation, sharply higher operating capacity, and tighter cost control. Funding is secured to support expansion, while balance sheet optimisation could unlock dividends. With execution risk materially reduced and copper upside unpriced, we see scope for a valuation re-rating and maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of Rp1,500. Malay...
The last 3 months have seen substantial tower price dislocation catalyzed by news that SATS intends to invoke contractual clauses and stop paying the tower industry for current leases. We highlight some key industry developments impacting sentiment and preview 4Q results based on our catch-up conversations with the companies in recent weeks.
Today, we are publishing the Automotive section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. We will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Foundry later this week. Auto demand came in above expectations, with limited signs of an air-pock...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Small/Mid Ca...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China has launched a three-month MIIT-led campaign to curb online misconduct in the auto industry, using selfinspections and penalties to reduce misinformation and promote competition on product quality. China’s PV insurance registrations fell 30% wow due to seasonality and consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment. Lithium carbonate prices correct on the production resumption of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s auto sector; top...
Attractive yield differentials. With Singapore government bond yields trending lower, the yield differential between fixed income and equities has narrowed in 2025, thus reinforcing the relative appeal of companies offering high, sustainable dividend payouts. Equity yields in the 4-6% range now offer a compelling pickup versus the 10-year Singapore Government Bond yield (1.8579% as at 4 Sep 25), while also providing potential for capital gains. In our view, this widening yield gap should support...
Today, we are publishing the Autos section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, PCs, Enterprise IT, Foundry and Semicap Equipment. The auto semiconductor recovery is underway, with revenues up 4% QoQ ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
This note covers results and changes to the model. Results were fine, with beats to most metrics driven by higher non-organic revenue from the early close of Millicom, strong services revenue, and a smaller headwind from FX. Guidance is up on the same drivers. The only change to organic growth came from higher Oi churn.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales growth slows to 0.8% yoy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update Sun Hung Kai & Co (86 HK/BUY/HK$3.47/Target: HK$5.86) 1H25 Preview: Positive market sentiment improves asset valuations. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,590) Building the future o...
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