The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
A director at Dorian LPG Ltd bought 30,000 shares at 17.750USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...
We believe the risk/reward in Dorian LPG screens attractively on solid market prospects, with limited 4% annualised deliveries for the next six quarters, and demand growth support from close to a 40% increase in US terminal capacity by 2026. Thus, we see potential for a tight market, and shipowners to capture its historical share of the arbitrage, currently implying USD60k/day for 2025e. Applying this as our spot rate estimate results in a 23% earnings yield for 2025e. We reiterate our BUY but h...
We have updated our estimates, reflecting the Q2 report, Q3 QTD fixtures and other minor adjustments. We remain positive on the outlook for the VLGC market, with upside potential to current rates on a still-healthy USD120k/day arbitrage and limited 3% supply growth in 2025e. The current ‘irregular’ DPS of USD1.0 equates to a healthy 14% run-rate dividend yield, with further upside potential if shipowners’ share of the arbitrage returns to historical levels. Applying the current USD60k/day arbitr...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
We see the possibility of negative near-term news flow on soft VLGC headline rates and the potential for reduced utilisation. However, we are positive medium-term, with solid US-FE arbitrage (average USD72k/day in calendar 2025) and limited vessel deliveries over the next seven quarters (~4% annualised), leaving solid upside potential to rates. By using the arbitrage as our spot rate for 2025e, we calculate a 23% earnings yield. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to USD40 (51).
We believe the soft VLGC spot market will rebound, with demonstrated US terminal capacity to ramp up exports, raising vessel demand and improving the shipowner’s ability to capture more of the ~USD110k/day arbitrage. Thus, limited deliveries (4% of fleet by end-2025) should offer solid earnings potential, in our view, presented by a 12% yield for Dorian on the 1-year TC. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to USD51 (52).
We expect the robust VLGC freight market to persist due to solid US production and exports (up 7% and 17% YTD YOY), fuelling the arbitrage, with the longevity of the cycle backed by slowing vessel deliveries in the next two years. Hence, we see upside potential to our USD45k/day spot rate for the next four quarters (for a 9% earnings yield). Increasing our spot rate equal to the arbitrage for the next two quarters and then to the 1-year TC rate, we calculate a 20% yield for the same period. We h...
The VLGC freight market has remained firm in recent weeks, supported by US inventories fuelling arbitrage, implying cUSD110k/day. As deliveries are set to slow, with just 29 vessels due until end-H1 2026 (40 in 2023), we see upside potential to our 2025–2026e average spot rate of USD44k/day. On the FFA curve, we calculate a c14% earnings yield, potentially allowing for an increased DPS. Despite the solid market outlook, we find the valuation fair at a P/NAV of 1.14x, and reiterate our HOLD, but ...
New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook We continue to view the latest pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Throughout the last week of April, we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that led us to believe the lows were likely in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Market dynamics remain health...
Solid US fundamentals with inventories c14% above the 5-year average have kept rates above USD50k/day, and with an outlook for a slowdown in VLGC deliveries, we see strong earnings potential for 2024. Hence, we see upside potential to the USD1.0 ‘irregular’ quarterly DPS and calculate a c14% run-rate earnings yield for the next four quarters on today’s FFAs and 1-year TC rates. Despite a solid market outlook, we find the valuation fair at a P/NAV of 1.15x. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised o...
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
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