Two Directors at Dorian LPG Ltd sold 45,000 shares at between 34.840USD and 35.190USD. The significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the l...
Monitoring for a Pullback We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold. We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we expect a period of consolidation/pullback, the afo...
Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500). We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range if it gets there, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on the SPX. Technolo...
The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...
We believe the risk/reward in Dorian LPG screens attractively on solid market prospects, with limited 4% annualised deliveries for the next six quarters, and demand growth support from close to a 40% increase in US terminal capacity by 2026. Thus, we see potential for a tight market, and shipowners to capture its historical share of the arbitrage, currently implying USD60k/day for 2025e. Applying this as our spot rate estimate results in a 23% earnings yield for 2025e. We reiterate our BUY but h...
We have updated our estimates, reflecting the Q2 report, Q3 QTD fixtures and other minor adjustments. We remain positive on the outlook for the VLGC market, with upside potential to current rates on a still-healthy USD120k/day arbitrage and limited 3% supply growth in 2025e. The current ‘irregular’ DPS of USD1.0 equates to a healthy 14% run-rate dividend yield, with further upside potential if shipowners’ share of the arbitrage returns to historical levels. Applying the current USD60k/day arbitr...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
We see the possibility of negative near-term news flow on soft VLGC headline rates and the potential for reduced utilisation. However, we are positive medium-term, with solid US-FE arbitrage (average USD72k/day in calendar 2025) and limited vessel deliveries over the next seven quarters (~4% annualised), leaving solid upside potential to rates. By using the arbitrage as our spot rate for 2025e, we calculate a 23% earnings yield. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to USD40 (51).
We believe the soft VLGC spot market will rebound, with demonstrated US terminal capacity to ramp up exports, raising vessel demand and improving the shipowner’s ability to capture more of the ~USD110k/day arbitrage. Thus, limited deliveries (4% of fleet by end-2025) should offer solid earnings potential, in our view, presented by a 12% yield for Dorian on the 1-year TC. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to USD51 (52).
We expect the robust VLGC freight market to persist due to solid US production and exports (up 7% and 17% YTD YOY), fuelling the arbitrage, with the longevity of the cycle backed by slowing vessel deliveries in the next two years. Hence, we see upside potential to our USD45k/day spot rate for the next four quarters (for a 9% earnings yield). Increasing our spot rate equal to the arbitrage for the next two quarters and then to the 1-year TC rate, we calculate a 20% yield for the same period. We h...
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