A director at Mari Petroleum Company Ltd sold 22,816 shares at 432.431PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI) reported its 4QFY23 earnings earlier today, wherein the company posted Profit After Tax (PAT) of PkR 15.84bn (EPS: PkR118.7) for the quarter, changing by –4%/183% QoQ/YoY — largely in-line with our estimates of EPS: PkR124.3/sh. For the full year, company posted PAT of PkR56.13bn (EPS: PkR420.7), up 70%YoY vs. PkR33.06bn (EPS: PkR247.8) during FY22. Along with the result, the company posted a final cash dividend of PkR58/sh, taking total payout for the year ...
Mari Petroleum (MARI) has notified the exchange for submission of Expression of Interest (EOI) to acquire majority shares in two wind power projects namely Foundation Energy I and Foundation Energy II. Both plants are 50 MW each, which were set up at a cost of US$128mn each with a capital structure of 75% debt and 25% equity. Currently, the same plant will cost around US$64mn, as per the latest petitions filed with NEPRA. Fauji Foundation and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) have stakes of...
Mari Petroleum (MARI) for 1QFY20 has posted an EPS of Rs68.0, up 21% YoY. The result came in higher than our estimate of Rs63.0 due to lower than expected operating expenditures during the quarter. Net sales of the company increased by 14% YoY due to increase in Gas sales by 6% YoY along with higher PKR/USD average of Rs167 vs. Rs158 in 1QFY20. Operating expenditures clocked in at US$1.4/barrel in 1QFY21 compared to an average of US$1.83/barrel in the last four quarters. Our estimate for O...
Mari Petroleum (MARI) has reported earnings of Rs53.1/share for 4QFY20, a decline of 6% YoY. The company also declared a final cash dividend of Rs2.0/share, taking full year dividend to Rs6.1/share. Decline in earnings is attributable to (1) decline in oil and gas flows by 10% YoY and 1% YoY respectively, and (2) increase in exploration costs by 429% YoY. Exploration costs came in higher-than-our expectations as we believe, the company has recorded a dry well Zarbab (from Hala Block), where ...
High hopes are pinned to deep-water exploration in Kekra-1 (Indus-G block) where Eni (operator of the block) has commenced drilling. Note that all previous 17 offshore exploration attempts have remained unsuccessful with the last one dating back to 2010. The success rate in high risk deep-water frontiers average 10-15% globally which is more relevant to potential success rate for local offshore explorations. If dry well is declared it would result in one-time dry well expense of PKR0.49/PKR0....
â–ª We initiate our coverage on MARI with a Jun-19 price target (PT) of PKR 2,062/share. Out PT provides a potential upside of 53% along with 0.5% dividend yield. The stock is currently trading at FY19 PER of 5.6x. We have assumed oil prices at USD 60/bbl for FY19 and USD 60/bbl for the long term, whereas, our Jun-19 end PKR/USD assumption stands at 145.â–ª MARI HRL reservoir is estimated to maintain a plateau of 650mmcfd till Jul-23, against previous estimates of 640mmcfd plateau which was proj...
We review our investment case for E&P companies incorporating changes in company specific and macro outlook including higher oil prices (USD70/bbl vs USD60/bbl previously), relatively much weaker exchange rate (PKR/USD averaging 135 vs 130 earlier in FY19) and higher interest rates (200bps further increase in interest rate during the remainder of FY19). As such, sector’s FY19/FY20 earnings are revised up by 7%/14%. However, valuations are expected to stay pat due to higher risk free rate assu...
Mari Petroleum (MARI) announced its 1QFY19 financial result where it posted earnings of PKR5.1bn (bonus adjusted EPS: PKR42.40), up 42%YoY/12%QoQ led by growth in topline and higher other/financial income. The earnings came in lower than our EPS expectation of PKR47.72 owing to higher than expected exploration expenses during the period likely due to incurrence of dry well in September. Topline grew by 54%YoY in 1QFY19 owing to 1) improved revenues from Mari Field through higher production w...
We expect MARI’s 1QFY19 earnings to jump by 60%YoY/26%QoQ to PKR5.8bn (EPS: PKR47.72). The growth in earnings is expected to be led by improved revenues on the back of higher production by Mari Field (incremental production above benchmark entitled to incentive gas pricing), higher oil prices and PKR depreciation. In the wake of higher oil prices and swift PKR depreciation, we have revised following assumptions 1) oil price to USD75 / USD70 per bbl for FY19 / FY20 and onwards (vs. USD60/bbl p...
Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY19 result on October 18, 2018, wherein the company is expected to post an earnings growth of 23% QoQ to PKR 5,641m (EPS: PKR 46.5) during the quarter. Sequential growth for the quarter is likely to be driven by improved wellhead gas prices, currency depreciation and lower exploration cost (due to lower seismic activity). The company is also expected to write off the cost associated with a dry well, Qamar X-1 in Hala Block, wh...
According to the treasury department of a Commercial Bank, PKR has started depreciating once again, and is trading at around PKR 132/134 per USD as of the writing of this flash note (9:52am). This round of depreciation is not very surprising because of news that the Finance Minister will approach IMF for a bailout this week, and because IMF has already pointed out in its press release that further PKR devaluation is needed. In addition to the devaluation, IMF believes Pakistan needs to further t...
MARI Petroleum Company (MARI) announced its 4QFY18 earnings, where company posted earnings of Rs4.6bn (EPS Rs42/share) up 62% YoY. Earnings were broadly in line with our expectations. Higher earnings could be attributed to higher well head gas prices of Mari Field at Rs141.15/mmbtu during 2Q2018, vs.~Rs106.05/mmbtu in 2Q2017 amidst higher international oil prices. Further, rupee devaluation and unwinding of entitlement factor of Mari field gas price are key reasons behind higher earnings. Exp...
We expect OGDC to post earnings of PKR76.0bn (EPS: PKR17.68), up 19%YoY in FY18, along with a final DPS of PKR3 taking full year DPS to PKR10.5 (payout: 59%). On quarterly basis, we expect OGDC’s earnings to be 19%YoY higher at PKR19.2bn (EPS: PKR4.47) in 4QFY18 but 5% lower QoQ. We project MARI’s earnings to stand at PKR15.0bn (EPS: PKR136.41), up 65%YoY in FY18. We expect it to announce DPS of PKR6.4. On quarterly basis, we expect MARI’s earnings to grow by 50%YoY/7%QoQ to PKR4.3bn (EPS: PK...
Mari Petroleum (MARI) recorded robust earnings growth in 3QFY18 on the back of i) upgrade in OGRA notified wellhead prices, which incorporated the impact of two consecutive quarters of oil price increase, ii) unwinding of Mari’s entitlement factor, and iii) higher production from Mari field, resulting in amplified impact on revenues due to incremental pricing mechanism. A reserve evaluation study carried out by the company has raised serious issues regarding the sustainability of flows from HRL ...
Investment Thesis: We initiate coverage on Mari Petroleum (MARI), Pakistan’s fourth largest Exploration & Production (E&P) company and third largest gas producer, with a ‘Buy’ recommendation and DCF based target price of Rs2,134/share. Our thesis is based on MARI’s 1) dismantling of GPA (Gas Price Agreement) and its replacement with an international crude oil price-linked market oriented formula, based on Petroleum Policy (PP) 2001, 2) incremental production (over a set benchmark) to be priced...
The latest 2Q18 report of Mari Petroleum Ltd (Mari) and our discussion with the company has revealed a not-so encouraging details on production incentive on Mari field. We now understand the production incentive on Mari field is only applicable on gas flows from HRL formation. Gas production from other formations is not included for calculation of gas production levels used for production incentives under E&P Policy 2012. In case E&P companies are able to increase field’s production by over 1...
We cut our earnings estimates for Mari Petroleum Company Ltd (MARI) by 10/2/1% over FY18/19/20E post below expected 2QFY18 results. We reiterate our Buy on MARI with TP of PKR1,850/sh. Despite earnings revision, our liking for MARI, one of our top ten picks in BMA Universe, has not subsided. MARI unveiled below expected earnings of PKR29.05/sh, down 11% QoQ with surprise driven by exploration cost and operating exp (higher amortization cost). We reiterate our view of pick-up in e...
Summary Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) is an integrated exploration and production company. It carries out exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, condensate and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It has exploration and production assets across Pakistan and owns and operates one of largest gas reservoirs at Mari field in Sindh. MPCL holds development and production leases over Zarghun South, Sujawal, and Halini X-1 and has operatorship in exploration blocks: Sujawal, Karak, Gha...
Summary Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) is an integrated exploration and production company. It carries out exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, condensate and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It has exploration and production assets across Pakistan and owns and operates one of largest gas reservoirs at Mari field in Sindh. MPCL holds development and production leases over Zarghun South, Sujawal, and Halini X-1 and has operatorship in exploration blocks: Sujawal, Karak, Gha...
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