reports
- James Ratzer
Deutsche Telekom (Buy, €36, +33%) CMD outlook and thoughts
Following on from the TMUS CMD a few weeks ago (write-up here), DT is now hosting its own CMD (due to start shortly) and in advance of that has set out its key targets. We run through our reaction to those in this note and the questions we will be most interested in getting answers to.
- Julian Dobrovolschi
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/10/2024
Thanks to unit revenue that has proven more resilient than anticipated, real discipline on capacity and a decline in the fuel bill, we expect margins to recover, especially for the legacies. IAG remains our top pick. We are upgrading Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to Neutral and downgrading Ryanair to Underperform as well as WizzAir on Neutral. - ...
- Julian Dobrovolschi
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 10/10/2024
Grâce à une recette unitaire qui se tient mieux que prévu, une discipline capacitaire notable et une baisse de la facture carburant, nous anticipons un rebond des marges tout particulièrement pour les majors. IAG reste notre valeur préférée. Nous relevons Air France-KLM et Lufthansa à Neutre et abaissons Ryanair à Sous-performance ainsi que Wizz Air à Neutre. - ...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Stephane Beyazian
Deutsche Telekom : New 2024-2027 targets: stronger growth but 2027 FCF...
>Two days of presentations under way - Deutsche Telekom announced its 2024-2027 targets this morning. The company will now present the outlook for each division over the next two days (Europe, Germany, TMUS, branding, networks & AI, business, portfolio, group financials).The good news: faster growth in Europe and AI to cut costs - Deutsche Telekom targets group revenue growth of 4% CAGR over 2023-2027 vs a consensus of 0%, and group EBITDAaL growth of...
- Stephane Beyazian
Deutsche Telekom : New 2024-2027 targets: stronger growth but 2027 FCF...
>Two days of presentations under way - Deutsche Telekom announced its 2024-2027 targets this morning. The company will now present the outlook for each division over the next two days (Europe, Germany, TMUS, branding, networks & AI, business, portfolio, group financials).The good news: faster growth in Europe and AI to cut costs - Deutsche Telekom targets group revenue growth of 4% CAGR over 2023-2027 vs a consensus of 0%, and group EBITDAaL growth of...
- Research Team
- Julian Dobrovolschi
Euronext : Raising our TP on CMD expectations (8 November), with organ...
>Q3 net profit materially boosted by Euroclear divi - ENX is set to come out with its Q3 figures and CMD presentation on 7 November post-market. Overall, we forecast revenue of € 402.7m in the quarter, up 11.8% YoY (but down 2.5% QoQ). The main drivers of growth in the quarter are trading (up 15.4% YoY, lifted by outstanding performance in fixed income trading at 47.9% YoY) and post-trade business (up 27.6% YoY, on the back of ENX Clearing expansion). We expect ENX to...
- Stefano Toffano
Givaudan : Very few (if any) signs of slowing down
>Broad based growth - This morning Givaudan reported on yet another quarter of strong results. Total revenues were CHF 1,907m for the quarter, +10.2% yoy reported and +14.1% on a lfl basis. Q3 24 revenues were +2.4% higher than ccs and +2.9% vs. AAOBe. No earnings are disclosed at Q1 and Q3 results. Givaudan‘s performance was once again driven by relatively high volumes across all markets (c. +12% yoy volume growth in the quarter for the group), segments and customer...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Airbus Group : 50 deliveries in September…and some hope of achieving t...
>50 deliveries in September…which leaves some hope for the achievement of the FY 2024 target - Airbus actually delivered 50 aircraft in September (-5 vs September 2023 and just +3 on a sequential basis), i.e. a shade above the 45 anticipated by Cirium, which leaves another 273 units to be delivered in Q4 alone if the group is to achieve its FY 2024 target of around 770 aircraft. In detail, 46 narrowbodies and just 4 long-haul aircrafts were delivered in September.§rch...
- Stephane Beyazian
Orange : Our analysis of the new consensus
>Stable estimates per business but FCF affected by spectrum costs and taxes - Orange published its most recent consensus yesterday evening. Overall, 2024-2028 revenue estimates are stable, 2024-2028 EBITDAaL forecasts are increased by ~1%, 2024-2028 EPS forecasts are raised by ~1%, and cashflow forecasts are stable. However, FCF forecasts are lowered by 5% due to a 13% increase in frequency purchases over 2024-2028 (€ 400-500m per year) and 3% increase in cash tax cos...
- Sinan Doganli
Bechtle AG : CMD feedback: FY 2024 guidance relies on spending flush f...
>Public sector of huge importance to Bechtle’s long-term success - The capital markets day centred around the public sector business which accounts for roughly 40% of Bechtle’s business volume (i.e. roughly € 3.2bn in 2024e). Two-thirds of the public sector business is conducted in Germany and one-third internationally (especially France, DACH (excl. Germany) and Benelux). Bechtle operates a central and decentralized approach which gives the company a competitive adva...
- Research Department
INFORME DIARIO 10 0CTUBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: REPSOL. EUROPA: AIRBUS, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM. Jornada de transición A excepción del Ibex que cerró plano, ganancias moderadas en Europa en otra jornada sin casi referencias macroeconómicas y sin novedades desde Medio Oriente. Así, en el STOXX 600, tan sólo Energía cerró con pérdidas, frente a las mayores ganancias de Tecnología y Autos. En EE.UU. las actas de la última reunión de la Fed reflejan bastante desacuerdo para recortar -50 p.b. y que será muy ...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Safran : A Q3 2024 that should demonstrate the robustness of the model...
>Q3 in line with previous quarters - We forecast Q3 sales in line with previous quarters despite a more demanding comparison base. Sales should grow by 13.7% to € 6,621m notably driven by i/ growth of 19%e in the aftermarket segment for USD-denominated civil engines (after 32.3% in Q2 and 27.3% in Q1 but vs 39% in Q3 2023) still driven by the services activities but also spare parts for CFM56 which benefit from the price hikes introduced on 1 August; ii/ strong growth...
- Stephane Beyazian
Orange : Notre analyse du nouveau consensus
>Des prévisions métier stables mais des FCF impactés par spectre et taxes - Orange a publié hier soir son dernier consensus. Dans l’ensemble, les prévisions de CA 2024-2028 sont stables, d’EBITDAaL 2024-2028 relevés de ~1%, de BPA 2024-2028 relevés de ~1%, et cashflows stables. Toutefois, les prévisions de FCF sont abaissées de 5% en raison d’une hausse de 13% des achats de fréquences sur 2024-2028 (400-500 M€ par an) et de 3% des impôts cash. Où le conse...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Airbus Group : 50 livraisons en septembre… et un mince espoir d’attein...
>50 livraisons en septembre… qui laissent un peu d’espoir sur l’atteinte de l’objectif FY 24 - Airbus a finalement livré 50 appareils sur le mois de septembre (-5 vs septembre 2023 et seulement +3 en séquentiel), soit légèrement au-delà des 45 anticipés par Cirium, ce qui laisse un reste à livrer de 273 unités sur le seul T4 pour atteindre l’objectif FY24 d’environ 770 avions. Dans le détail, 46 monocouloirs et seulement 4 long-courriers ont été livrés en septembre.§r...
- Juan Ros-Padilla
Jeronimo Martins : Q3 preview: still a challenging environment
>Q3 2024 earnings preview - Jeronimo Martins is due to publish its Q3 2024 results on 30 October. We expect sales to grow 6% y-o-y to € 8.4bn (vs +7% in Q2) while we expect margin deterioration of 68bp to 6.7% (vs -79bp in Q2) as the competitive environment in all regions remains challenging with no sign of uptrading for now. Lastly, we expect the bottom line to post a negative y-o-y trend of -20% impacted by EBITDA (-4% y-o-y), bigger depreciation charges and somew...
- Konrad Zomer
Adecco : Heightened risk of a dividend cut and Q3 likely more challeng...
>Staffing markets were marginally more challenging in the last three months - Adecco is set to reports its Q3 results on 5 November. We believe trading conditions in key staffing markets like North America, France and Germany remained very difficult in Q3, and we believe Adecco might have faced a marginally more challenging trading environment in recent months. Easier comps and 1.1 additional working days are likely to be fully offset by margin pressure from weak perm...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Safran : Un T3 2024 qui démontrera la solidité du modèle. Le risque su...
>Un T3 dans la lignée des trimestres précédents - Nous tablons sur un CA T3 dans la lignée des trimestres précédents modulo une base de comparaison plus élevée. Le CA devrait croitre de 13.7% à 6 621 M€ porté notamment par i/ une croissance de 19%e de l’après-vente pour moteurs civils en USD (après 32.3% au T2 et 27.3% au T1 mais vs 39% au T3 2023) toujours tirée par les activités de services mais aussi par les pièces détachées CFM56 qui ont bénéficié de...
- Konrad Zomer
Randstad : As long as downside risk exceeds upside potential….
>Market conditions have remained challenging - Staffing markets in North America, France, the Benelux and in particular Germany have not shown signs of improvement in recent months versus the first half of the year. Recent macro-economic data have not yet recovered and we believe corporates remain reluctant to recruit and candidates remain reluctant to change jobs. Staffing volumes in manufacturing, automotives and logistics are likely to remain under pressure. As a r...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.