Kalekim announced its 2023 IAS 29 results on 18 April, reporting net earnings of TRY 430m, +3% yoy, in its income statement, which was prepared under the IAS 29 inflation-accounting principles. It posted a strong set of operating results under IAS 29, with an expanding EBITDA margin on an annual basis. Kalekim also released its non-inflation-adjusted key financial figures for 2023, implying a solid operating performance in 4Q23, in line with consensus expectations. We believe that Kalekim should...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
We are revisiting and transferring coverage of the Greek banks. We estimate their earnings to plateau, and their ROTEs to normalise in 2024-26E, as the market expects short-term Euribor rates to decline. Capital and liquidity gain importance as there is less easy money. The emphasis will be on optimising balance sheets, returning capital, and minimising funding costs relative to Euribor. We like National Bank of Greece (NBG; BUY) for its profitability, simplicity, and potential to return capital...
HEADLINES: • Auto Partner: 4Q23 EBITDA misses our forecast by 4%, but the consensus by 12% NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 17% yoy, 4% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q23 bottom-line beat lacking some quality NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: lfl worsens to -2.9% in 2Q24; new CEO appointed NEGATIVE • DataWalk: actual 4Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries; strong 1Q24 sales funnel POSITIVE • CEZ: Parliament formally drops Lex CEZ 2.0 N...
Profitability step-up confirmed; where do we go now? – Titan Cement reported FY’23 EBITDA of €540mn, delivering 63% yoy growth on the back of 3.5% volume growth, double-digit pricing and c7pps margin expansion. With FY’23 EPS at €3.4, Titan has effectively beaten its FY’26 target three years earlier, rendering the communicated business plan obsolete. Going forward, mgmt echoed a positive outlook but refrained from updating the guidance, something we believe reflects more management conservatism ...
Profitability step-up confirmed; where do we go now? – Titan Cement reported FY’23 EBITDA of €540mn, delivering 63% yoy growth on the back of 3.5% volume growth, double-digit pricing and c7pps margin expansion. With FY’23 EPS at €3.4, Titan has effectively beaten its FY’26 target three years earlier, rendering the communicated business plan obsolete. Going forward, mgmt echoed a positive outlook but refrained from updating the guidance, something we believe reflects more management conservatism ...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...
HEADLINES: • Tofas: fortune favours the bold (stays BUY) • LPP: 4Q23 in line with prelims; FY24E guidance maintained; stellar rollout plans NEUTRAL • Aselsan: strong pre-IAS29 4Q23 results, bullish FY24E guidance POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB turns cautious, with a slower pace of rate cuts • Logo Yazilim: weak 4Q23 results, but the details matter NEGATIVE • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Ten Square G...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today affirmed the Baa1/(P)Baa1 senior unsecured debt/senior unsecured MTN program ratings of CEZ, a.s. (CEZ) and the baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA). At the same time, Moody's has changed the outlook to negative from stable. Today's rating action follows the co...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but trading update disappoints NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: weak 4Q23 results, but bullish FY24E guidance NEGATIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: proposes RON 0.06 DPS (11.8% dividend yield) POSITIVE • PKO BP: new acting CEO and two new board members appointed; more to come; but CRO Mazur stays • CEZ: starts divestment of Polis...
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: MPC surprises with a 500bp hike • Hungary macro: Hungary ends the cap on bank deposits • Aselsan: new USD 0.6bn contract • Dino: 8-10% EBITDA miss in 4Q23 - qoq sales erosion • Benefit Systems: conference call takeaways - solid 2024E outlook, Türkiye promising, churn-related risks from the Czech Republic should not materialise in Poland • 11 bit studios: Indika release date set for 8 May • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Jahez: conference call takeaways •...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: quo vadis? New contracts, new products and upcoming transition to inflation accounting POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG cuts policy rate by 75bps • CEZ: press reports CEZ has won tender for 55% of GasNet, could weigh on the 2023 dividend payout NEGATIVE • Allegro: 4Q23 results above expectations; guidance for a strong 1Q24E POSITIVE • Verbund: 4Q23 results in line with guidance NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q23 results – in line operationally NEUTRAL • OPAP: 4Q23 results and FY...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: good news and challenges – the state of play in March • Aegean Airlines: caps off another strong year with a good 4Q, to pay out a EUR 0.75 DPS POSITIVE • Sarantis: 2H23 results slightly above guidance NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: 4Q23 and 2024-26E outlook highlights • Budimex: annual conference takeaways – targeting maintaining 2024E revenues and margins flat yoy NEUTRAL • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders called to approve continuation of SMR project, based...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q23 profits largely in line; 2024E guidance assumes continuation of profits, but ROE is likely start to normalise • Alpha Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Eurobank: 4Q23 highlights • Fondul Proprietatea: Court of Appeal admits Fund’s request to annul share capital increase decision at Bucharest Airports POSITIVE • Arcelik: CMA approves Arcelik-Whirlpool Deal POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the preliminary 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23E results preview ...
Erste’s net income came to EUR 688 mln in Q4, down by 16% q-o-q and up by 34% y-o-y while the figure came 3% ahead of consensus and slightly below our estimate. The market beat came from provisioning mainly as the Bank released FLI provisions in the amount of EUR 200 mln in the Other Austria Segment. Risk cost was allocated mainly at savings banks due to SME and medium-sized real estate projects. NII declined 3% q-o-q due to moderately rising deposit pass-through rates, interest rate caps in ...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
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