Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Company Update | TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB/HOLD/Bt2.04/Target: Bt2.04) We expect TTB to post 4Q25 net profit of Bt4.88b (-5% yoy, -8% qoq). Loan growth and NIM remain challenging and are expected to be muted and miss the company’s 2025 target. We foresee the company maintaining its focus on asset quality with higher provision. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt2.04.
Top Stories Company Update | TISCO Financial Group (TISCO TB/HOLD/Bt110.00/Target: Bt105.00) We expect TISCO to report a 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.6b, down 6% yoy and 7% qoq. We expect TISCO’s loan portfolio to be flat yoy and grow 1% qoq in 4Q25 due to the seasonal high loan demand during the festive season and the new year. We expect the loan portfolio to be flat in 2025, and expect credit costs to decline qoq in 4Q25. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt105.00. Company Update | TMBThanachart Bank ...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
Company Results | Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB/HOLD/Bt50.50/Target: Bt57.00) TCAP reported a 3Q25 net profit of Bt2.1b (+27% yoy, +1% qoq). The results beat our and market expectations by 29% and 27%, respectively. The company’s credit costs dropped significantly by 121bp yoy and 62bp qoq to come in at 122bp in 3Q25. The NPL ratio rose qoq, due to the loan portfolio shrinking. We maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Bt57.00.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Company Results | TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB/HOLD/Bt1.86/Target: Bt2.04) TTB posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt5.3b (+1% yoy, +6% qoq). The results beat our and consensus forecasts by 9%. The remaining tax benefit is Bt6.9b. The CEO has expressed concern about hire-purchase loans, especially for new cars. TTB will roll out a share buyback programme early next year. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt2.04
Top Stories Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt155.50/Target: Bt170.00) BBL posted a 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.8b, +11% yoy and +17% qoq. The results beat our and consensus expectations by 40% and 27%, respectively. The loan portfolio contracted 3.2% in 9M25. Meanwhile, an investment gain boosted bottom line, beating expectations in 3Q25. We should see the NPL reduction pattern continuing in 4Q25, in line with the guidance. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Bt170.00. Compan...
Greater China Sector Update | Property Property investment has declined since Jul 25 due to weak demand, LGFV financing controls, slow destocking and urban-redevelopment, and limited new loans. Sep 25 data showed a rebound in Tier 1 city home sales, led by Shanghai. Central government capital is needed. However, the existing policy stance points to a low possibility of direct injection by the central government. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with CR Land as our top pick. Indonesia Strategy | T...
TTB posted a 2Q25 net profit of Bt5.0b (-7% yoy, -2% qoq). The results are in line with our and consensus forecasts. TTB’s CEO stated that the bank prefers to protect the balance sheet and grow selectively amid a weakening economic outlook. The net impact from the “You Fight We Help” measure should be neutral to TTB. The bank may consider rolling over the remaining first-year budget of the share buyback programme to next year's budget instead. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt1.95.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt27.75/Target: Bt45.00) 2Q25: Results in line; robust bottom line performance and strong asset quality affirm the company's fundamental resilience despite recent share price volatility. TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB/HOLD/Bt1.89/Target: Bt1.95) 2Q25: Results in line; well-managed asset quality. Update PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/SELL/Bt22.50/Target: Bt20.00) 2Q25 core earnings expected to remain a loss. Downgrade to SELL.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Operational update and 1H25 earnings preview for CR Land and COLI. Update Tiangong International (826 HK/NOT RATED/HK$2.10): Leading global provider of specialty steels benefitting from recovery. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ/BUY/Rp810/Target: Rp1,300): A blue ocean leader in integrated mobility and logistics. MALAYSIA Update PPB Group (PEP MK/BUY/RM9.63/Target: RM15.80): We expect 2Q25 results to come in flat qoq at RM340m-370m, given st...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Internet 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued focus on value for money. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.85/Target: HK$3.31) Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KL...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
TTB posted a 1Q25 net profit of Bt5.1b (-5% yoy, flat qoq). The results were in line with consensus forecast but missed our expectation by 6%. The share buyback programme will help to limit the downside. TTB’s CEO said it is too soon to estimate the impact of US reciprocal tariffs. However, we expect TTB to raise its provision expenses given the uncertainties surrounding the US tariffs. We have factored in the expected policy rate of 1.5%. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of Bt1.95.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB/HOLD/Bt21.30/Target: Bt22.50) 1Q25: Results in line with consensus; bottom line beats our forecast due to investment gain. Downgrade to HOLD. Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt46.25/Target: Bt58.00) 1Q25: Results in line; credit costs decline qoq with a stabilised NPL ratio. TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB/HOLD/Bt1.89/Target: Bt1.95) 1Q25: Results in line with consensus; reiterates selective lending po...
INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,395) Strong growth track record in an industry with room for further expansion. MALAYSIA Update QL Resources (QLG MK/BUY/RM4.69/Target: RM4.80) Fairly insulated from trade tariff war but overall outlook does not excite. Maintain HOLD. WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK/SELL/RM0.635/Target: RM0.55) Minimal orderbook replenishments and inconsistent earnings deliv...
TTB posted a 4Q24 net profit of Bt5.1b (+2% yoy, -2% qoq). The results are in line with our and consensus forecasts. The contraction in loans in 2024 was due to a selective focus on growing a quality portfolio. The remaining tax benefit amounting to Bt10.6b will serve as a cushion to support growth. TTB preserved its good asset quality in 2024. The bank intends to reach a medium-term ROE milestone of 10%. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt2.16.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB/HOLD/Bt51.50/Target: Bt52.00) 4Q24: Results a huge positive surprise, but provisions jump qoq. TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB/BUY/Bt1.82/Target: Bt2.16) 4Q24: Results in line; well-controlled asset quality in 2024.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Per capita tourism spending weakens further despite a yoy increase in visitor numbers; 2025 will continue to be a challenging year. Update Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$2.74/Target: HK$4.00): Business operations deteriorate in 4Q24; being cautious on new store openings; continuous closures of underperforming stores may happen in 2025. INDONESIA Sector Property: Undemanding valuation amid increased uncertainty. MALAYSIA Update Hap Seng Plantati...
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