A director at Tenaga Nasional Berhad sold 15,000 shares at 14.400MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
Strategy For ‘Trump-dora’s’ Box (Prolonged Iran Conflict) Highlights While there is fresh optimism of the US’ touted 15-point plan to close the global economic Pandora’s box that was pried open by US-Israel attack on Iran, we provide a current damage report and explore a protracted conflict scenario. Malaysia remains a net exporter of oil & gas (O&G), but there are wide concerns that the government deficit will significantly widen under the scenario of the Brent crude oil price sustaining we...
Digging Into A More Defensive Mode Highlights The past week’s events require reassessment of the financial impact of the US-Israel vs Iran conflict. With Iran’s organised and persistent military response that has targeted/crippled the regional logistics/production of crude oil, the situation could morph into a war of attrition and further elevate Brent crude oil prices by more than 20% to over US$88/bbl. Such a scenario raises the probabilities of Brent crude oil prices rising to US$100/bbl, s...
Assessing Risk Of High Fuel Cost: Tenaga Nasional Is Sheltered; Gas Malaysia May Stand To Benefit If Crisis Prolonged Highlights Combing through our universe, if we assume the crisis leads to high crude oil prices over a long period of time (>6 months), Gas Malaysia may stand to benefit from higher NG prices. Logically, this positive flow-through may also be mitigated by weak NG demand as higher fuel prices hurt the overall economy. Tenaga Nasional is likely to be sheltered under the IBR str...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
Alpha Picks: Staying Selectively Defensive As Volatility Intensifies Highlights Our Feb 26 Alpha Picks marginally underperformed the FBMKLCI (-1.7% vs FBMKLCI: -1.4%). Oxford (+6.1%), Tenaga (+3.2%) and Zetrix AI (+1.9%) were the only gainers while VS Industry (-17.9%) and IJM Corporation (-6.3%) led the losers. For Mar 26, we favour stocks with firm domestic earnings visibility as a defensive anchor amid lingering external uncertainties, while selectively accumulating beaten-down names wi...
4Q25 Results Wrap-Up: Improving Breadth And Earnings Visibility Lay Foundation For A Firmer 2026 Highlights The substantial improvements in market earnings breadth in the 4Q25 results season reinforces our view of improving corporate earnings momentum in 2026. Large-cap domestic proxies which topped expectations were amply rewarded, notably Sunway Construction, Sunway Bhd, Sime Darby, KPJ Healthcare and Tenaga Nasional. Strategy: Selective, favouring liquid large-cap proxies. Against a flu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...
US-Israel-Iran Escalation: Volatility Spike, But Limited Structural Fallout For Malaysia Highlights Over the past few days, tensions between the US, Israel and Iran have escalated sharply following a coordinated USIsrael military campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear-linked facilities. Multiple strategic sites were reportedly struck, marking one of the most direct confrontations among the parties in recent years. Iran’s leadership has since vowed retaliation, heightening fears of a b...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price ra...
4Q25: A Strong Finish; Above Expectations Highlights TNB reported a 4Q25 normalised net profit of RM1,532m – a strong finish to the year on the back of higher regulatory revenue base and low effective tax rate of 9% as TNB utilises its investment allowance granted by MOF. A final net DPS of 28 sen/share was declared for 4Q25, bringing full-year 2025 net DPS to 53 sen/share (2024: 51 sen/share). Payout of 65% is slightly ahead of our expectation. Maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price o...
US Tariff Shock: Rotation Opportunities Amid US Trade Uncertainty Highlights Late Friday (US time), the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime, dealing a major blow to Trump’s signature trade policy and marking his most significant legal setback since returning to the White House. In a 6-3 ruling, the court held that President Trump overstepped his authority by invoking federal emergency-powers legislation to impose broad “reciprocal” tariffs and ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Alpha Picks: Focusing On Laggards And Selective Catalysts Highlights Our Jan 26 Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI on a price-weighted (+5.2%) and market cap-weighted (+5.9%) basis. IOI Properties Group (IOIPG) (+20.8%) and Lagenda Properties (+20.0%) led the gains while Pekat (-14.6%) and VSI (-13.4%) lagged. For Feb 26, we favour stocks with firmer domestic earnings visibility amid lingering external uncertainties and names with company-specific catalysts amid sector rotation. Feb 26...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Navigating Rising Costs Amid Elevated Orderbook Highlights 4Q25 results will remain robust on the back of elevated orderbook and healthy margins. Beyond that, we expect share price to trade sideways in 2Q26 given rising solar PV prices (11 cents/kwh vs 9 cents/kwh a year ago) and slowerthan- expected residential rooftop take up under the ATAP programme. In the longer run, positive regulatory outlook – under NeTR – will continue to drive sector performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We prefer large ...
1H26 Strategy: Fired Up For A Risk-On Re-Acceleration Highlights We expect Malaysian equities to fire up for outperformance in 2026 after a muted and defensive-driven 2025, fuelled primarily by a confluence of pre- GE domestic liquidity, the ringgit’s appreciation, and corporate earnings growth recovery. Externally, easing geopolitical tensions and accommodative monetary policy backdrop should keep risk-asset sentiment buoyant while domestically, a firmer ringgit, and follow-through buying o...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Energy Regulatory Insights; Residential Projects To Experience Slowdown In 1Q26 Highlights The year-end Energy Regulatory Insight 2025 (ERI 2025), organised by Energy Commission Malaysia (EC), featured dialogue sessions and insights into Malaysia’s evolving energy landscape and regulatory framework. Near-term focus including: a) an optimal tariff structure with the AFA, b) regasification plants to address depleting indigenous gas supply, and c) longer-term electricity market liberalisation. ...
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