A director at Tenaga Nasional Berhad sold 7,900 shares at 13.560MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
4Q24: Results Within Expectation; Lower Generation Cost And Opex TNB reported a strong 4Q24 core net profit of RM1,370m. Earnings doubled yoy on the back of revenue flow-through, lower staff costs and lower depreciation charges. This brought 2024 core net profit to RM4,330m (+16% yoy) in the absence of a negative fuel margin. Earnings are in line with our expectation but ahead of street estimates. We take this opportunity to raise 2025/26 net profit estimates by 3%/6% respectively, factoring in ...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Uptick in February. Sector Macau Gaming: Feb 25 GGR beat thanks to tail-end effect post CNY; switch top pick to Galaxy. Results New World Development (17 HK/HOLD/HK$4.82/Target: HK$4.45): 1HFY25: Net loss in line with profit warning and primarily caused by inventory impairment; refinancing progress to be the key. Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/HOLD/HK$3.29/Target: HK$3.60): 2024: Below expectations; industry coordination and production discipline crucial to restore mar...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Review of the mainland and Hong Kong property markets in 2024. INDONESIA Update Alamtri Resources Indonesia (ADRO IJ/HOLD/Rp2,380/Target: Rp2,600): Transition into sustainability. MALAYSIA Results Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK/HOLD/RM14.58/Target: RM13.20): TNB is set to benefit from a healthy Regulatory Period 4 regime. SINGAPORE Update CSE Global (CSE SP/BUY/S$0.425/Target: S$0.59): Good buying opportunity as company scales up in the US. THAIL...
Set To Benefit From A Healthy Regulatory Period 4 Regime TNB announced a healthy RP4 base capex growth of 30% and maintained a rate of return of 7.3%. We understand that the base capex will form the base tariff from which TNB derives pre-tax profit for 2025-27. Thus, the 30% increase in base capex will lift 2025-27 net profit by 3% annually. At this stage, we have no further details on demand growth, coal and LNG price assumptions. Current valuation has largely priced in TNB as a key beneficiary...
3Q24: Results Below Expectations; Stock Is Fairly Valued The group booked a sequentially weak 3Q24 core net profit of RM750m (-44% qoq, -7% yoy). This brings 9M24 core net profit to RM3b (flat yoy). The results accounted for 69% of our earnings which we deem below expectations. Pending an analyst briefing today, we look to trim our earnings by at least 5%. We believe expectations of a favourable RP4 outcome is largely priced in. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged DCF-based target price of RM13.20. ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: Suppliers pushing back against BYD’s request for 10% price cut. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.65/Target: HK$2.55): On track for five-year plan. INDONESIA Strategy Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies: Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results...
A Visit To Company’s Hydro Asset To Understand Plant Rejuvenation Plans We recently visited Chenderoh hydro plant, which has been earmarked for plant rejuvenation and solar PV under NeTR. Broadly, TNB aims to modernise 650MW of its existing hydro plants in Malaysia in 2026-33. In addition, there are plans to plant up to 400MW of floating solar PVs on those dams. This will help drive Malaysia towards net zero carbon emission by 2050 with a 70% green energy mix. Maintain HOLD. Target price: RM13.2...
GREATER CHINA Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) 3Q24: Risk-and-reward is more balanced. Upgrade to BUY. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb24.42/Target: Rmb22.70) 3Q24: Net profit misses, but visibility of recovery improving. Downgrade to HOLD. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$62.15/Target: US$85.00) 1QFY25: In line; moderated growth outlook in 2QFY25 on low seasonality. Update Xtep International Holdings (...
A Strong 2Q24; Malaysia To Play Catch Up In Terms Of Plant-ups Sector earnings came in within our expectations as generation profits boosted the net profit of Tenaga Nasional (TNB) and Malakoff. Gas Malaysia benefits from volume growth. 2Q24 key takeaways are: a) daily reserve margin of 15-30%, b) 2GW of shortterm PPAs extended, c) 6GW of new power plants awarded and operational in 2030/31, and d) data centre demand estimated at 4GW. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: Malakoff and Pekat Group. B...
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Property Results wrap-up for Hong Kong developers: Navigating the cycle. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,270/Target: Rp2,900) Fixed broadband ARPU might increase by 10% post-acquisition of ServeCo. MALAYSIA Sector Utilities A strong 2Q24 with companies coming in broadly within expe...
1H24: Results Within Expectation; A Strong Quarter TNB booked a strong 2Q24 core net profit of RM1,314m (+44% qoq, +68% yoy). This brought 1H24 core net profit to RM2,226m (+27% yoy), in line with expectations. All in all, 2Q24 net profit was driven by a flow-through from revenue, positive TNB genco contribution, higher associate earnings, lower interest expenses and lower effective tax rates. Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of RM13.20. Foreign shareholding stood at 15.3% as of Jul 2...
GREATER CHINA Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$27.65/Target: HK$42.50) 1H24: Results missed on margins. Expect peak season to bolster profitability in 2H24. China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.22) 1H24: Steady profit growth; accelerated revenue expansion in 2H24. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.16/Target: HK$6.10) 1H24: Below expectations; power generation dragged by low wind speed. ...
Government To Award Short-term Power Plant Extensions The government is likely to offer short-term PPAs (two-year validity) to expired gas-fired power plants. We expect at least 2GW of capacity to be awarded under this short-term PPA extension, as the build-up of data centres requires higher power capacity. Key beneficiaries are Malakoff and TNB Genco. As a pure play, Malakoff will stand to benefit from at least RM100m in cashflow from the extension of its Prai power plant. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
Energy Boost In Peninsular Malaysia The onset of aggressive DC plant-ups alongside Malaysia’s net-zero ambition suggest ample opportunities for power players to expand their businesses. We expect 5GW of new plant-ups by 2030 and another 10-15GW by 2040. Key beneficiaries are: a) EPCC contractors with experience in building power plants, b) TNB genco and IPP Malakoff, and c) RE players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: Malakoff and Pekat. Blue-sky scenario for TNB implies a fair value of RM14.5...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity 2Q24 growth below expectations. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Sharper property price decline in 1H24 weighing on margins of Chinese developers; upcoming interest rate cut to support value of Hong Kong retail landlords. Update Kingmed Diagnostics (603882 CH/BUY/Rmb38.10/Target: Rmb35.00) 1H24 and 2024 results under pressu...
1Q24: Results Within Expectations; Bright Outlook Largely Priced In The group reported 1Q24 core net profit of RM1,071m (-7% yoy; +40% qoq) – in line. The yoy decline was due to the Manjung 4 outage, higher repair & maintenance costs and higher effective tax rates. Sequential earnings were driven by the absence of year-end expenses. Maintain HOLD with a higher DCF-based target price of RM13.20, factoring in the doubling of regulated capex (from RM7b to RM15b p.a.) for RP4 and WACC of 7% (from 7....
GREATER CHINA Sector Property - Hong Kong Limited Downside Risks To Property Price in Near Term; Watch For Policy Support For Hong Kong Tourism. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,320/Target: Rp2,900) 2024 net profit could grow 45% yoy, partly driven by network improvement. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas Petrona...
2023: Results Below Expectation; Higher Opex Offsets Positive Fuel Margin TNB booked a weak 4Q23 core net profit of RM763m (-11% qoq, +33% yoy) vs our expectation of RM1b profit per quarter. This brings 2023 core net profit to RM3,735m (- 19% yoy), below our expectations. 2023 earnings were below normalised earnings of RM4-4.5b due to a negative fuel margin of RM620m vs a positive fuel margin of RM1.1b in 2022. Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of RM10.70. The stock offers dividend yie...
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