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David Vagman ... (+2)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA

Proximus/Faustian pact/HOLD (previously Sell)

We upgrade Proximus from Sell to HOLD and cut our target price from €9.1 to €7.5. Proximus is negotiating complex fibre cooperation agreements to achieve fixed infra monopolies, likely in medium and less dense areas. We expect improved wholesale rates but tougher competition, the trade-off from the ‘faustian pacts' that are in our view fully open fixed networks and the MVNO deal with Digi. We see Digi taking >10% mobile market share, c.4% in fixed by 2030. In Flanders medium dense areas, we thin...

Kris Kippers
  • Kris Kippers

Proximus - Strong EUR 700m bond placement

•    Yesterday, Proximus successfully placed a EUR 700m 10-year bond at a 3.75% coupon, ensuring financing and enhancing its maturity schedule•    In the coming weeks and months, we expect positive newsflow stemming from the Telesign-RouteMobile combination as well as collaborations to lower the fiber related investments•    With valuation being extremely low, strong commercial momentum and FCF profile improving materially, we stick to our BUY rating

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Econocom: Exclusive negotiations to sell maritime salvage group Les Abeilles. Exor: Now a long-term investor in Clarivate, Suzanne Heywood to be a board member. Kinepolis: Slow recovery in Feb box office revenue and attendance in US/Canada, France. Proximus: Telesign reportedly lays off three top executives. TKH Group: FY23 results in line, FY24 outlook sober

Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AMS AMS AG
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
MUV2 MUNICH REINSURANCE COMPANY
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
UCB UCB S.A.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AMS AMS AG
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
MUV2 MUNICH REINSURANCE COMPANY
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
UCB UCB S.A.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : Germany: DTE, Freenet and 1&1 set to be the winners again in 20...

>Clients: Freenet inTV, Deutsche Telekom in broadband and 1&1 in mobile - In broadband, Deutsche Telekom added 66,000 clients in Q4 2023 vs Vodafone -94,000, O2D +23,000 and 1&1e -10,000 by our estimates. Deutsche Telekom continues its fibre roll-out (2-3 million new lines per year). Telefonica and 1&1 hope for better trends in the future but we see no visible signs. Freenet, which launched its offering in 2023, underlines the difficulty of building a brand on this ma...

Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : Allemagne : DTE, Freenet et 1&1 encore gagnants en 2024

>Clients : Freenet #1 (TV), Telekom #2 (internet) et 1&1 #3 (mobile) - Sur l’internet fixe, Deutsche Telekom a ajouté 66 000 clients au T4 2023 vs Vodafone -94 000, O2D +23 000, et 1&1e -10 000 selon nous. Telekom poursuit le déploiement de la fibre (2-3 M de lignes nouvelles par an). Telefonica et 1&1 espèrent de meilleures tendances à venir mais nous ne voyons pas de signe visible. Freenet, qui a lancé son offre en 2023, souligne la difficulté de construire une mar...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AB InBev: A Bit Light, Bud. Ackermans & van Haaren: Core units AM/Banks and DEME. Adecco: Beats by 17% on 4Q23 EBITA; outlook solid. Air France-KLM: Peak reached already? Allfunds Group PLC: MoreFunds. ASR: 2H23 squeezed between two CMDs, no surprises. Belgian telecoms: Digi to launch convergent offers in Belgium. CM.com: FY23 results, EBITDA positive in 2H23. Fugro: Strong? Excellent!. NN Group: FY23 better, modest 2025 targets, capital distribution strategy better. Recticel...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ASM International: 4Q23 preview, good year ahead. CFE: Preview - focus on quality of order book. CM.com: Preview 2H23/FY23. Just Eat Takeaway.com: Preview FY23, more profits ahead. PostNL: FY23 results, FY24 outlook well below, looks to improve LT performance. Proximus: BICS CEO let go after Telesign tensions, Niel/Iliad invest €1.2bn in Tele2. Retail Estates: Sound operational trends and portfolio valuation

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica, and Proximus

Telecom: Deutsche Telekom reports solid FY23 results. Telefonica provides soft guidance for 2024. Proximus reports mixed FY23 results

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Proximus (Neutral, TP: €10.5, +20%) Q4 23: EBITDA growth remains lac...

Proximus has reported a solid set of numbers, with domestic EBITDA +0.3% ahead of consensus. Domestic 2024 guidance implies slightly higher EBITDA as well (growth of “up to 1%“ vs consensus at +0.2%), but this is offset by a slightly weaker than expected guide for International. SR trends are very good (c+6% y/y), but are nearly wholly offset by higher costs. EBITDA will return to growth in 2024, but only just.

Michiel Declercq
  • Michiel Declercq

Proximus First Reaction: good results and outlook, but soft internatio...

Proximus reported solid 4Q23 results driven by a strong underlying domestic performance, adding 38k mobile postpaid customers and 16k new internet customers (the highest in 5Y). This resulted in a nice underlying EBITDA increase of 1.4% to € 421m, in line with expectations (css: € 420m). The 1.5% revenue growth to € 1534m nevertheless came in below expectations (css: € 1567m) on the back of soft top-line development for its international activities, although this was countered by solid margins. ...

Konrad Zomer
  • Konrad Zomer

Proximus : Solid underlying momentum and guidance, with TeleSign disap...

>Q4 operational momentum was good, all guidance parameters comfortably met - Proximus reported Q4 revenue of €1,534m, -1.6% yoy. This is some 2% below consensus of €1,565m (we were at €1,538m), which we believe is mainly related to tough comparables for both BICS and TeleSign. The company’s domestic revenue growth was 3.5% at € 1,196m, some 1% ahead of consensus of € 1,185m. Group underlying EBITDA came in at € 421m, +1.4%, which compares with consensus of €419m (we a...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Brunel International: 4Q23 results in line, touch weaker FY24 start, mainly in Germany. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Done and dusted. Cofinimmo: Resilient FY23 results, investment neutrality reiterated for FY24. EVS: Very strong 2H23 and orders beat, net cash/WCR dampen the mood. Proximus: Q4 in line results, better net adds, guidance in line

Guy Sips ... (+8)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Kris Kippers
  • Kris Kippers

Proximus - Solid Q4, FY24 guidance in line

Strong commercial momentum also continued in Q4 resulting in Domestic revenues and EBITDA that were (slightly) ahead of expectations and a key driver for group numbers. International was below on top lineFor 2024, Proximus is guiding for ‘+1% sales & EBITDA growth' which is in line with expectations and capex drops from peak levels to EUR 1.2bnWith discussions on fiber collaborations “progressing well”, we believe momentum remains strong – BUY reiterated

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