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Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

ACS: 3Q’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'24 vs. 3Q'23 Results Sales: € 10.953 Bn (+17.0% vs. +15.5% BS(e) and +15.2% consensus); EBITDA: € 522.0 M (+6.3% vs. +11.3% BS(e) and +27.6% consensus); EBIT: € 272.0 M (-11.4% vs. -8.7% BS(e) and -0.4% consensus); Net Profit: € 189.0 M (-1.0% vs. -82.3% BS(e) and -16.8% consensus); 9M'24 vs. 9M'23 Results Sales: € 29.702 Bn (+12.5% vs. +12.0% BS(e) and +11.9% consensus); EBITDA: € 1.679 Bn (+17.8% vs. +19.5% BS(e) and +25.2% consensus); EBIT: € 1.079 Bn (+11.0% vs. +11.9% BS(e) and +14.5% co...

Virginia Romero
  • Virginia Romero

GREENING: APOSTANDO POR LA DIVERSIFICACIÓN (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Apostando por la diversificación. Incrementamos rango de valoración a 6,93 euros/acc. y 9,86 euros/acc. GGR ha batido al sector en Bolsa en 2024 al cumplir guidance en COD&UC y por la estrategia llevada a cabo de diversificación e internacionalización (Norte América y resto de Europa). Actualmente, GGR cuenta con una cartera de 9 GW (268 MW en COD&UC y 783 MW Backlog). Nuestras estimaciones asumen dos escenarios (prudente y base, que implica asumir el 61% del Plan Estratégico) según capacidad CO...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

ACS: RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 10.953 M euros (+17,0% vs +15,5% BS(e) y +15,2% consenso); EBITDA: 522,0 M euros (+6,3% vs +11,3% BS(e) y +27,6% consenso); EBIT: 272,0 M euros (-11,4% vs -8,7% BS(e) y -0,4% consenso); BDI: 189,0 M euros (-1,0% vs -82,3% BS(e) y -16,8% consenso); Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 29.702 M euros (+12,5% vs +12,0% BS(e) y +11,9% consenso); EBITDA: 1.679 M euros (+17,8% vs +19,5% BS(e) y +25,2% consenso); EBIT: 1.079 M euros (+11,0% vs +11,9% BS(e) y +14,5% consen...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Rafael Bonardell
  • Rafael Bonardell

AENA: FONDO DE ARMARIO CON YIELD INTERESANTE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Fondo de armario con yield interesante. SOBREPONDERAR A pesar de la buena evolución que lleva el valor en 2024 (+26% en absoluto; +8% vs Ibex 35 y vs -7%/-10% de sus comparables ADP y Fraport) la debilidad reciente tras los Rdos. 9meses’24 (-4% en absoluto; -1% vs Ibex 35) ha incrementado el potencial que se ve impulsado con la fortaleza del tráfico de pasajeros, donde no se atisba ningún cambio de tendencia. Ante esa sólida evolución (+9,4% hasta octubre’24) y unas buenas perspectivas hemos rev...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 13 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 3T'24. IDEAS DESTA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACS, AENA, CAF, GREENING, NEINOR HOMES, SACYR, SECTOR INMOBILIARIO - SOCIMI. EUROPA: ALLIANZ, PROSUS. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Alemania celebrará elecciones en febrero El contagio desde Asia junto con el incremento en...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 13 NOVEMBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREV...

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, AENA, CAF, GREENING, NEINOR HOMES, REAL ESTATE SECTOR, SACYR. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Germany to hold elections in February The contagion from Asia, along with the increased geopolitical risk, dragged down European stock markets. In the STOXX 600, only Technology ended in gree...

Ana Arjona-Martinez
  • Ana Arjona-Martinez

ACS : In line results both on P&L and cash flow

>Good operating performance… - ACS’s Q3 2024 operating results were in line with our estimates: revenues 1% or € 155m above our estimates and EBITDA € 521m vs € 519m ODDO BHFe (i.e. 1% or € 3m above). More importantly, once excluding the Hochtief results already reported, Dragados, the main operating division outside Hochtief, posted EBITDA slightly ahead of our estimates. The beat, was the result of the strong margin reported in the division that more than offset the...

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

SACYR: MENSAJES DE LA CONFERENCE CALL RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABA...

De la conference call de Rdos. 3T’24 destacamos los siguientes mensajes:  Autopista Pedemontana: Confirma que ya está trabajando con la Administración pública italiana

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

SACYR: 3Q’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'24 vs. 3Q'23 Results Sales: € 1.143 Bn (+5.8% vs. -0.7% BS(e) and +0.9% consensus); EBITDA: € 290.8 M (-13.2% vs. -10.8% BS(e) and -11.1% consensus); EBIT: € 270.35 M (+1.3% vs. -0.9% BS(e) and -6.7% consensus); Net Profit: € 22.0 M (-21.4% vs. -12.7% BS(e) and -25.0% consensus); 9M'24 vs. 9M'23 Results Sales: € 3.262 Bn (+0.6% vs. -1.6% BS(e) and -1.1% consensus); EBITDA: € 947.8 M (-3.3% vs. -2.5% BS(e) and -2.6% consensus); EBIT: € 870.0 M (+2.8% vs. +2.2% BS(e) and +0.3% consensus); Net P...

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

SACYR: RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 1.143 M euros (+5,8% vs -0,7% BS(e) y +0,9% consenso); EBITDA: 290,8 M euros (-13,2% vs -10,8% BS(e) y -11,1% consenso); EBIT: 270,35 M euros (+1,3% vs -0,9% BS(e) y -6,7% consenso); BDI: 22,0 M euros (-21,4% vs -12,7% BS(e) y -25,0% consenso); Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 3.262 M euros (+0,6% vs -1,6% BS(e) y -1,1% consenso); EBITDA: 947,8 M euros (-3,3% vs -2,5% BS(e) y -2,6% consenso); EBIT: 870,0 M euros (+2,8% vs +2,2% BS(e) y +0,3% consenso); BDI: 74,...

Virginia Romero
  • Virginia Romero
 PRESS RELEASE

Neinor Homes upsizes its Green Bond to €325mn on strong demand with €1...

Neinor Homes upsizes its Green Bond to €325mn on strong demand with €1,300mn orderbook -  4x oversubscribed   Neinor’s bond issuance saw strong investor demand upsizing it to €325mn while also improving Neinor’s overall corporate cost of debt to 5.875% (from 6.5%) and extending maturities to 5.25 years (from 2 years)The use of proceeds is mainly focused on the refinancing of the existing corporate debt (€175mn) and the remaining proceeds (€150mn) will be allocated to growth opportunitiesEven after the upsizing and cost optimization, investors demand has largely surpassed the offer size bein...

Virginia Romero
  • Virginia Romero

GREENING: 1H’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

1H’24 vs. 1H’23: Sales: € 48.9 M (+6% vs. 1H’23) EBITDA: € 5.3 M (+43% vs. 1H’23) The 1H’24 results were worse than expected on the revenues level, leading the company to lower its guidance’24e, although they were solid in terms of capacity (268 MW in COD&UC vs. 174 MW in 2023). GGR’s consolidated 1H’24 sales reached € 48.9 M (+6% vs. 1H’23), recurring EBITDA € 5.3 M (+43% vs. 1H’23) and Net Profit € 1.1 M (due to higher financial costs). These numbers have led the company to lower its 2024e rev...

Virginia Romero
  • Virginia Romero

GREENING: RDOS. 1S’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 1S’24 vs 1S’23: Ventas: 48,9 M euros (+6% vs 1S’23) EBITDA: 5,3 M euros (+43% vs 1S’23).

Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/10/2024

Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...

Rafael Bonardell
  • Rafael Bonardell

AENA: 3Q’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'24 vs. 3Q'23 Results Sales: € 1.65 Bn (+14.1% vs. +14.0% BS(e) and +14.5% consensus); EBITDA: € 1.108 Bn (+17.4% vs. +16.4% BS(e) and +17.6% consensus); 9M'24 vs. 9M'23 Results Sales: € 4.397 Bn (+16.3% vs. +16.3% BS(e) and +16.5% consensus); EBITDA: € 2.663 Bn (+26.0% vs. +25.5% BS(e) and +26.1% consensus);

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