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Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – yield hunting after markets ha...

The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...

Erol Danis ... (+2)
  • Erol Danis
  • Koray Pamir

Model Portfolio Update - Removing Aygaz from our Model Portfolio

Following a very strong run and the partial normalization of the core valuation anomaly that underpinned our initial call, we have downgraded Aygaz to Hold from Buy and simultaneously remove it from our model portfolio, while retaining a constructive fundamental stance. Since the inclusion in our model portfolio, the shares are up 23% in USD, outperforming the BIST-100 by 22%. At the time of our rating upgrade, Aygaz’s participation portfolio (Tupras, Opet Aygaz REIC, United LPG, Sendeo) more t...

Koray Pamir
  • Koray Pamir

Aygaz - Relative upside compression following strong run. Downgrade to...

Downgraded to Hold on risk/reward normalization: Since our upgrade to Buy on 30 July 2025, Aygaz has delivered a 31% return in USD, outperforming the BIST-100 by 32% and Tupras by 12%. This has substantially eroded the relative valuation cushion. Our 12M TP of TL272/share is unchanged, but implied upside has compressed to 30%, versus 43% for our coverage universe and 40% for our ex-banks coverage. On a 12M rating basis, this moves Aygaz into Hold territory: we continue to like the name fundament...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: THYAO TI; CIMSA TI; TUPRS TI; ISCTR TI; ELM AB; ARABIAND A...

HEADLINES: • Turkish Airlines: buy the dip (upgraded to BUY) • Cimsa: 3Q25 financial results review POSITIVE • Tupras: 3Q25 results – net income beats expectations NEUTRAL • Isbank: 3Q25 highlights – slower margin rebound and 11% miss vs.to our estimate • Elm: 3Q25 financial results review NEGATIVE • Arabian Drilling: 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: receives recalls for three land rigs POSITIVE • Akcansa: 3Q25 conference call takeaways • CEZ: nationalisation in draft government plan, bu...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Hungarian BUX in the lead in Octob...

EME Equity Market – October 2025 Hungarian BUX leads in October, Türkiye and Greece lag. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.5% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in USD terms in October. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 9.1% mom in EUR terms; followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.9% mom) and the Romanian BET (+5.4% mom) (in EUR terms). The Czech PX was also in the green (+2.8% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Turkish ISE30 (-1.9% mom and -1.1% mom, in EUR terms, respectively) both los...

BRE MBANK SA
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
RBW RAINBOW TOURS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ADNOCDRILL CTP NV
2381 ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
9526 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
BOROUGE HELLENIQ ENERGY
H2O BOROUGE
AQ HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
THEON AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIRA THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
NOVAL GEVORKYAN A.S.
ZAB NOVAL PROPERTY
DSPW ZABKA GROUP
DIAG DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
DIAGNOSTYKA SA
Koray Pamir ... (+2)
  • Koray Pamir
  • Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz

Monthly Refining Margin Data (October 2025)

In October, within mid distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 26.4 (down 0.2 m/m, up 11.4 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 24.2 (up 2.6 m/m, up 10.8 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 18.4 (down 3.4 m/m, up 4.5 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 5.3 (up 0.7 m/m, down 1.1 y/y). Differentials were slightly wider m/m. As outlined in our report published today, regional mid distillate cracks remain strong in the region, as evidenced in this mo...

Koray Pamir
  • Koray Pamir

Aygaz - Buy re-iterated. Appealing valuation & favourable dividend yie...

Buy maintained; 12M roll-forward and TP raised: We maintain Buy and roll our 12M valuation to Dec-2026, lifting our TP 9% to TL272/share, implying 38% upside (Coverage: 43%; ex-bank Coverage: 37%). Shares have outperformed the BIST-100 by +9%/+18% over 1M/3M (+7%/+17% in USD). We keep Aygaz in our model portfolio, as earnings carry, balance-sheet strength, and look-through value continue to screen well on our cross-coverage stack. Valuation appeal with earnings support—still room to run: Despit...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EBS AV; BRISA TI; AKCNS TI; TKNSA TI; YKBNK TI; ADNOCDIS U...

HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: 3Q25 beat, mostly on one-off, but core result also stronger; current valuation levels justified, while waiting for finalisation of acquisition in Poland POSITIVE • Brisa: delivers 3Q25 earnings turnaround POSITIVE • Akcansa: 3Q25 financial results review – mixed NEGATIVE • Teknosa: 3Q25 results – operating recovery overshadowed by bottom-line losses NEUTRAL • Yapi Kredi: 3Q25 – first look • ADNOC Distribution: 3Q25 results POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 3Q25 high...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Romanian BET in the lead in Septem...

EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...

BRE MBANK SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
OMV OMV AG
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCC CCC SA
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
RBW RAINBOW TOURS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
MAVI MAVI GIYIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
R22 R22
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
VRC VERCOM SA
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
SHO SHOPER SA
MUR2 MURAPOL SA
TRESTATES TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
THEON THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
NOVAL NOVAL PROPERTY
BOCHGR BANK OF CYPRUS
ZAB ZABKA GROUP
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
DIAG DIAGNOSTYKA SA
PE RO PREMIER ENERGY
Koray Pamir ... (+2)
  • Koray Pamir
  • Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz

Monthly Refining Margin Data (September 2025)

In September, within mid distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 26.6 (up 4.6 m/m, up 11.8 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 21.6 (up 3.3 m/m, up 9.4 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 21.8 (up 3.4 m/m, up 10.5 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 9.1 (down 2.3 m/m, up 4.2 y/y). Differentials were slightly wider m/m. On a quarterly basis, diesel cracks came to 25.0 (up 60% y/y, up 46% q/q), jet cracks rose to 20.0 (up 48% y/y, up 26% q/q) and ...

Erol Danis ... (+2)
  • Erol Danis
  • Koray Pamir

Model Portfolio Update - Adding Aygaz to our Model Portfolio

Yesterday may have been about iPhone 17; today is about Aygaz where, even after a 10% holding discount, the participation portfolio now trades broadly at par with its market cap, leaving the core LPG franchise (including net cash of TL2.3bn) effectively priced at zero—an inefficiency we expect to mean-revert. We recently upgraded to Buy and the shares have outperformed the BIST-100 by c.5% since; we now add Aygaz to our model portfolio to reiterate our conviction. Near-term EPS is supported by ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Poland – worst performer in August

EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...

PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
DOC DO & CO AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
RBW RAINBOW TOURS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
GPP CTP NV
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
GIG KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
2381 GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
7202 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
9526 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
4071 HELLENIQ ENERGY
ACAG ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 AUSTRIACARD HOLDINGS AG
OPTIMAr ELM CO
AQ OPTIMA BANK S.A.
THEON AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIRA THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
BOCHGR GEVORKYAN A.S.
ZAB BANK OF CYPRUS
ALPHA ZABKA GROUP
PE RO ALPHA BANK S.A.
PREMIER ENERGY
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: TUPRS TI; KRU PW; WPL PW; ENA PW; G2M SS; TLV RO; TEN PW; ...

HEADLINES: • Tupras: enjoying life in the margins (stays BUY) • Kruk: 2Q25 beat, on a positive tax balance, lower financial costs and a drop in the cost to collect ratio POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 24% yoy, 6% above the consensus; weak 2H25E outlook NEGATIVE • Enea: preliminary 2Q25 EBITDA 15% above our expectations, supported by strong Supply and better Generation; PLN 2.8bn capex, including wind farm acquisitions POSITIVE • Gentoo Media: 2Q25 financial...

Bram Buring ... (+3)
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA
  • Jonathan Lamb

Tupras: enjoying life in the margins (stays BUY)

We maintain our BUY on Tupras, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of TRY 276.0 (from TRY 84.9), offering 59.7% upside. We have prepared our latest forecasts based on a USD-denominated model, converted to a fixed TRY rate to meet the IAS 29 accounting standard. Refining margins remain above the mid-cycle averages, despite a downward trend in the last three years. The opportunities available for cheap Russian feedstock have reduced, but not disappeared. A solution to the Kirkuk pipeline issue w...

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