reports
- Dan Salmon
Netflix (NFLX, Neutral, target lowered to $100) NFLX + WB First Take:...
This morning NFLX announced a definitive agreement to acquire Warner Brothers for $82.7 billion in cash and stock, with $50B of new debt financing supporting the cash portion of the bid. This implies 25x pre-synergy EV/EBITDA, or 14x after ~$2.5B in cost savings.
- Blair Levin
Update on WBD: What Trump Transaction Tax Could NFLX Pay?
Yesterday, multiple stories appeared on how the bidding for WBD by PSKY, NFLX and CMSCA is playing out, the biggest one—that WBD is now exclusively negotiating with NFLX—coming out late last night. In this note we update our thinking on the implications of the news and our sense where the game is headed.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
RPM RPM INTERNATIONAL INC.
UNVA UNILEVER PLC ADS
LNG CHENIERE ENERGY INC.
WDAY WORKDAY INC. CLASS A
SYY SYSCO CORPORATION
SLGN SILGAN HOLDINGS INC.
SLF. SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC.
POST POST HOLDINGS INC.
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY
OMC OMNICOM GROUP INC
MKTX MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC.
MKC MCCORMICK & COMPANY INCORPORATED
MDLZ MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC. CLASS A
LOPE GRAND CANYON EDUCATION INC.
GIS GENERAL MILLS INC.
CPB CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CALM CAL-MAINE FOODS INC.
CAG CONAGRA BRANDS INC.
BAH BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION CLASS A
AMSF AMERISAFE INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
EFX. ENERFLEX
STN. STANTEC INC
BRO BROWN & BROWN INC.
MSM MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO. INC. CLASS A
AJG ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO.
RDED RELX PLC
NTNX NUTANIX INC. CLASS A
TRNS TRANSCAT
KNSL KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP INC.
WDFC WD-40 COMPANY
AXON AXON ENTERPRISE INC
CRVL CORVEL CORP.
ZLAB ZAI LAB LTD. SPONSORED ADR
SMPL SIMPLY GOOD FOODS CO
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES
ZS ZSCALER INC.
SPOT SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY SA
IIIV I3 VERTICALS
VITL VITAL FARMS
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
OTIS OTIS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION
TT TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC
2VZ LEONARDO DRS INC.
SKWD SKYWARD SPECIALTY INS GROUP INC
LIN LINDE PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
ASPI ASP ISOTOPES INC
TRI THOMSON REUTERS CORPORATION
TXO TXO PARTNERS L.P.
WAY WAYSTAR HOLDING CORP
- Wedbush Research
MCS MARCUS CORPORATION
IMAX IMAX CORPORATION
CNK CINEMARK HOLDINGS INC.
AMC AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
ROKU ROKU INC. CLASS A
DNLI DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC
DOCU DOCUSIGN INC.
PRAX PRAXIS PRECISION MEDICINES
PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES
S SENTINELONE INC
RBRK RUBRIK INC
ZBIO ZENAS BIOPHARMA INC.
- Alicia Reese
- Kade Barr
- Matthew McCartney
- Dan Salmon
Netflix (NFLX, Neutral, $121 target) WBD bid anxiety building + updat...
We adjust our target to $121 (vs $1,210 prior) owing to the 10:1 stock split. There are no changes to fundamental estimates for members, revenue, margins, or investments. There are immaterial changes to net interest expense, net income, EPS and FCF owing to minor below-the-line changes
- Wedbush Research
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
TSLA TESLA INC
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
ESTC ELASTIC N.V.
CRWD CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES
STX SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
- Anish Jog
- Daniel Ives
- Matthew Weiss
- Sam Brandeis
- Scott Devitt
- Steven Wahrhaftig
- Blair Levin
As WBD Collects Bids, Has Anything Changed in Likely Government’s Appr...
Bids are due tomorrow for purchasing the WBD’s assets. In this note, we update our thoughts on the government’s likely reaction while also pointing out other market developments that may prove critical to investor thinking about what’s next.
- Blair Levin
WBD Drama Continues: What are Known Knowns?
The last several weeks have featured tons of analysis about potential bids for WBD. We think it dangerous to have conviction about who will bid what amount for what assets; the potential bids have many known unknowns. One, however, can have conviction about certain principles underlying the government review of the eventual proposed acquisition. In this note we address what we think investors should understand about that review, with some key points at odds with common perceptions.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
TGL. TECNOGLASS INC.
SM SM ENERGY COMPANY
MTDR MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
MDLZ MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC. CLASS A
KAI KADANT INC.
JJSF J & J SNACK FOODS CORP.
HRL HORMEL FOODS CORPORATION
EEFT EURONET WORLDWIDE INC.
CVLT COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC.
APOG APOGEE ENTERPRISES INC.
APD AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS INC.
ADP AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC.
WFT. WEST FRASER TIMBER CO. LTD.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
HNI HNI CORPORATION
LPX LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORPORATION
SXC SUNCOKE ENERGY INC.
TREX TREX COMPANY INC.
WSO WATSCO INC.
SPOT SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY SA
MGY MAGNOLIA OIL & GAS CORP. CLASS A
CARR CARRIER GLOBAL CORP.
HPK HIGHPEAK ENERGY INC (A)
DFH DREAM FINDERS HOMES
FOUR SHIFT4 PAYMENTS
SRAD SPORTRADAR GROUP AG
2VZ LEONARDO DRS INC.
LIN LINDE PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
ETOR ETORO GROUP LTD
- Wedbush Research
TTWO TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC.
TSLA TESLA INC
TRIP TRIPADVISOR INC.
EXPE EXPEDIA GROUP INC.
CTMX CYTOMX THERAPEUTICS INC.
BCRX BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
INOD INNODATA
PTGX PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS
NTLA INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS INC.
ANAB ANAPTYSBIO INC.
ROKU ROKU INC. CLASS A
RCKT ROCKET PHARMACEUTICALS
BKNG BOOKING HOLDINGS INC.
DNLI DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC
HEAR TURTLE BEACH CORP.
STRO SUTRO BIOPHARMA
STTK SHATTUCK LABS
ABNB AIRBNB INC. CLASS A
IMNM IMMUNOME
SANA SANA BIOTECHNOLOGY
PLTK PLAYTIKA HOLDING
TTD THE TRADE DESK
GLUE INC.
ATXS MONTE ROSA THERAPEUTICS INC
JANX ASTRIA THERAPEUTICS INC
YOU JANUX THERAPEUTICS INC
SOUN CLEAR SECURE INC
EWTX SOUNDHOUND AI INC
SYRE EDGEWISE THERAPEUTICS INC
NATL SPYRE THERAPEUTICS INC.
OS NCR ATLEOS CORPORATION
MAZE ONESTREAM INC
CBIO MAZE THERAPEUTICS INC
SNDK CRESCENT BIOPHARMA INC.
SANDISK CORP
- Alicia Reese
- Kade Barr
- Matthew McCartney
- Wedbush Research
RNG RINGCENTRAL INC. CLASS A
AMC AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
ROKU ROKU INC. CLASS A
DDOG DATADOG INC CLASS A
FUBO FUBOTV
PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES
NUVB NUVATION BIO INC (A)
TTD THE TRADE DESK
PAY INC.
SLDB PAYMENTUS HLDGS INC
SOLID BIOSCIENCES INC
- Alicia Reese
- Kade Barr
- Matthew McCartney
- Wedbush Research
MCS MARCUS CORPORATION
LGIH LGI HOMES INC.
IMAX IMAX CORPORATION
CNK CINEMARK HOLDINGS INC.
BMRN BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC.
AMC AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
OSTK OVERSTOCK.COM INC.
DHI D.R. HORTON INC.
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
PTGX PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS
DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
- Alicia Reese
- Kade Barr
- Matthew McCartney
- Blair Levin
Trump Administration Confirms Media Antitrust Policy (and It’s Not Abo...
The New York Post just ran a story headlined “Trump Admin Favors Paramount Skydance in Race to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery.” That conclusion is no surprise; it confirms our previous published analysis. It also, however, lays out new information about the Trump approach to reviewing deals, particularly involving media. In this note we analyze what the article signifies, including how it is an effort to lower bidding tension that will result in a “Trump Transaction Tax” on WBD shareholders, and h...
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