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Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

OTE (Buy from Neutral, TP: €22.1, +30%) EBITDA growth to be further s...

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating commentary from the results call as well as from a meeting with management (CEO/CFO) yesterday.

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish ISE back in the lead

EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...

BRE MBANK SA
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
DOC DO & CO AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
RBW RAINBOW TOURS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
DVL DEVELIA SA
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
CTPNV CTP NV
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
BOROUGE BOROUGE
H2O HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
THEON THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
BOCHGR BANK OF CYPRUS
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
PE RO PREMIER ENERGY
Stamatios Draziotis CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Riding the HALO rotation; thesis mainly yiel...

Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...

Stamatios Draziotis CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Riding the HALO rotation; thesis mainly yiel...

Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EAT PW; KRU PW; TXT PW; ENA PW; CTPNV NA; RICHT HB; DHS HB...

HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q25 miss, due mainly to allegations about food safety in Czechia NEGATIVE • Kruk: 4Q25 results – bit of a mixed bag • Text: 3Q25-26 (calendar 4Q25) results – EBITDA down 25% yoy, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Enea: impairments and higher provisions to reduce 2025 net income by PLN 1.37bn and EBITDA by PLN 162m NEUTRAL • CTP: 4Q25 results and conference call • Richter: 4Q25 beat, on gross margin and tight opex control POSITIVE • Duna House: 4Q25 in line, guidance implies ...

Piotr Raciborski ... (+2)
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

WOOD Flash – OTE: 4Q25 results review – organic adjusted EBITDA up 2% ...

OTE has reported a solid set of 4Q25 results, with its Greek sales up 9% yoy, to EUR 916m (6% above our forecast) and its Greek adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, to EUR 366m (in line with our estimate). The fixed-line segment recorded sales growth of 10.2% yoy, to EUR 536m (driven by an ICT sales hike of 57.8% yoy and a 2.6% increase yoy in retail sales, despite the 5.0% yoy drop in wholesale sales), while the mobile segment increased by 3.4% yoy, to EUR 340.5m, as the 5.2% increase in retail sales (dr...

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

OTE (Neutral, TP: €17.2, -3%) Q4 25: Solid results, and good guidance

OTE has reported a solid set of results (very good at the revenue level due to low margin ERF revenues, but EBITDAaL in-line) and given some good EBITDAaL guidance for FY26. We recently downgraded to Neutral due to the PPC FTTH overbuilder risk

Stamatios Draziotis CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: Q4 in line, 7% distribution ...

Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...

Stamatios Draziotis CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: Q4 in line, 7% distribution ...

Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: LPP PW; PL Macro; BDX PW; EBS AV; SNG RO; RO Macro; HTO GA...

HEADLINES: • LPP: 4Q prelims in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold • Budimex: bids rank highest in two PSE tenders NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 4Q25 operational results NEUTRAL • Romania macro: positive news • OTE: Greek telecoms regulator launches public consultations on 900MHz and 1,800MHz spectrum POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells 283MW UK solar portfolio to Schroders Greencoat POSITIVE • Aselsan: strategic JV agreement with CSG POSITIVE • Erste Bank: 4Q25E preview (due on...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: SPL PW; Polish media; DVL PW; SNP RO; BELA GA; Turkish aut...

HEADLINES: • Santander BP: posts solid 4Q25 numbers; rebranding costs guidance in line; DPS of PLN 46 seems very feasible NEUTRAL • Polish media: CPS's audience share at 22.30%, while WP TV is at 0.57% in January 2026 NEUTRAL • Develia: management targets for 2026E close to our forecasts NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 4Q25 results and dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Jumbo: January sales +8% on easy comps; guiding for 5% sales growth and EUR 310-320m net earnings in 2026E NEUTRAL • Turkish automotive: strong ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish ISE 30 in the red in Novem...

EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).

OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
KRKG KRKA D.D.
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
DOC DO & CO AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
RBW RAINBOW TOURS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
DVL DEVELIA SA
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
R22 R22
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
VRC CTP NV
GPP VERCOM SA
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
2381 ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
9526 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
SHO HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 SHOPER SA
ACAG ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
H2O AUSTRIACARD HOLDINGS AG
7203 HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
OPTIMAr ELM CO
MUR2 OPTIMA BANK S.A.
AQ MURAPOL SA
TRESTATES AQUILA PART PROD COM
THEON TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
AIRA THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
PRIUA GEVORKYAN A.S.
BOCHGR PRIMOCO UAV SE
DSPW BANK OF CYPRUS
DIAG DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
PE RO DIAGNOSTYKA SA
PREMIER ENERGY
Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – yield hunting after markets ha...

The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: HTO GA; PZU PW; ALE PW; CPS PW; GPP PW; PKN PW; DOM PW; TP...

HEADLINES: • OTE: multiple tailwinds supporting the equity story (stays BUY) • PZU: very strong 3Q25 bottom line, strong beat vs. expectations, but slower revenue growth raises questions for the future POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q25 above expectations; FY25E guidance trimmed due to slower November NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 12% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, 2% above our forecast and 11% above ...

George Grigoriou ... (+3)
  • George Grigoriou
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

OTE: multiple tailwinds supporting the equity story (stays BUY)

We reiterate our BUY on OTE and increase our price target (PT) to EUR 23.0 (from EUR 20.3), implying 37% upside potential. Since our previous report on the company (October 2024), we have recognised multiple tailwinds reinforcing OTE’s equity story and our positive view on the name, including: 1) the finalisation of the Telekom Romania sale, which supports the FCF and dividend outlooks materially; 2) the implementation of CPI-related price increases, and the easing competitive pressure in the mo...

Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A.: 1 director

A director at Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A. sold 1,500 shares at 16.857EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: AEGN GA; ELM AB; EAT PW; CAR PW; HSBK LI; ELPE GA; SNG RO;...

HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: summer performance ahead of our estimates (upgraded to BUY) • Elm: clarity is on its way (stays BUY) • AmRest: 3Q25 below expectations NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q25 EBITDA above our expectations and the market by 3-6% NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: 3Q25 highlights before the call - good quarter with an 8% beat to our estimate, 2026E guidance POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q25 results beat, on record-high refining output POSITIVE • Romgaz: 3Q25 results - net income beat our expec...

Stamatios Draziotis CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Cleaner but not materially faster; retain Ho...

Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...

Stamatios Draziotis CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Cleaner but not materially faster; retain Ho...

Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...

Piotr Raciborski ... (+2)
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

WOOD Flash – OTE: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA 1% up yoy, in ...

OTE has reported a solid set of 3Q25 results, with the Greek sales up 5% yoy, to EUR 874m (2% above our forecast) and the Greek adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, to EUR 375m (in line with our estimate). The fixed-line segment recorded sales growth of 8% yoy, to EUR 468m (driven by an ICT sales hike of 13.6% yoy, a 1.3% increase yoy in retail sales and 4.2% yoy growth in wholesale sales), while the mobile segment remained flat, at EUR 342m, as the 2.7% increase in retail sales was offset by a 15% yoy dr...

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