Muted fundamentals, strong price performance ytd, mixed news flow; EBITDAaL growth far lower than EU peers, warranting a Hold – OTE shares have had several twists and turns in 2024, with the stock posting a modestly positive return in H1 followed by a rally until Nov and a c8% correction from its recent peak in the last few weeks. Catalyzing the bounce since early summer was a confluence of factors including the end of the decline in GR fixed (mainly due to easy comps), hopes for the sale of Rom...
Muted fundamentals, strong price performance ytd, mixed news flow; EBITDAaL growth far lower than EU peers, warranting a Hold – OTE shares have had several twists and turns in 2024, with the stock posting a modestly positive return in H1 followed by a rally until Nov and a c8% correction from its recent peak in the last few weeks. Catalyzing the bounce since early summer was a confluence of factors including the end of the decline in GR fixed (mainly due to easy comps), hopes for the sale of Rom...
HEADLINES: • 11 bit studios: 3Q24 surprises slightly positively, but ytd Frostpunk 2 sales disappoint NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: small beat in 3Q24 – new Cioccolatitaliani franchise signed for Italy POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q24 results and interim dividend NEUTRAL • OTE: 3Q24 results review – soft quarter, with flat yoy adjusted EBITDA, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 3Q24 results N...
OTE has reported a soft set of 3Q24 results, with sales up 2% yoy, to EUR 897m (3% below our forecast), and the adjusted EBITDA flat yoy, at EUR 370m (in line with our estimate), due mainly to the contraction of the Romanian segment’s adjusted EBITDA offsetting the growth in Greece. We see the 3Q24 results as neutral, as the adjusted EBITDA is in line with our estimate, while the misses on the reported EBITDA and the bottom-line were driven by a negative operating one-off.
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: stellar 3Q24 print sponsored by OTP RO integration POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 3Q24 results – small beat; FY24E guidance reiterated; buyback programme expires POSITIVE • Sok Marketler: highly weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q24 broadly in line with recent trends NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: weak 3Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: 3Q24 results highlights – improved outlook NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: Oc...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: 3Q24 results – strong NII delivery • mBank: underlying 3Q34 business delivery in line; beat on headline net profit due to tax charges NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24 results – minor miss on high credit risk charges, as corporate NPL ratio surges NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 3Q24, Biedronka at -2% lfl and stable margin erosion; price war continues POSITIVE • Komercni Banka: 3Q24 results – net profit largely in line with expectations • Medicover: 3Q24 operating numbers in l...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: agrees to acquire Türkiye's Hepsiburada NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q24 highlights - on track to meet guidance NEUTRAL • Al Arabia: MBC Group sells 4.9% of shares of Al Arabia NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: establishment of JV with Jedco completed NEUTRAL • OTE: ANAF imposes EUR 33.5m in additional tax charges related to alleged VAT and CIT miscalculations NEGATIVE • Greece macro/banks: BOG increases the countercyclical capital buffer rate to 0.25%, with effect from October 2025E N...
HEADLINES: • Medicover: private healthcare pioneer keeps on rolling (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OTE: safe dividend play (upgraded to BUY) • National Bank of Greece: HFSF launches the sale of a 10% stake in NBG NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 2Q24 results in negative territory, below our expectations NEGATIVE • mBank: issues traditional profit warning related to the CHF mortgage saga, ahead of 3Q24E results NEUTRAL • InPost: 4.9% price hike for Allegro NEUTRAL • Allegro: introduction of spirits from 21...
We have upgraded our rating on OTE to BUY from Hold, with a price target (PT) of EUR 20.3 (from EUR 18.8), implying 26% upside potential. We appreciate the strong investor remuneration that we expect it to offer: on our estimates this should reach 7.3% in 2024E and 7.6% in 2025-26E, and could also be supported by proceeds from the sale of the Romanian business. We also see an easing in the competitive pressure in Greece as positive. On our estimates, OTE trades at 2025-26E EV/EBITDAs of 5.1-5.0x...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
A director at Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A. bought 10,000 shares at 14.594EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...
HEADLINES: • Trade Estates: Greek retail parks – a dividend growth story (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Wizz Air: thrust issues (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: posts bottom line slightly below expectations, NPL ratio down to below 5%, solid 19%+ ROE intact NEUTRAL • CCC: 12% EBITDA beat in 2Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 2Q24 results – strong margin recovery, FY24E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • CEZ: 2Q earnings beat, EBITDA guidance up 2-3%, but net guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • CTP:...
OTE has reported a soft set of 2Q24 results, with sales up 7% yoy, to EUR 911m (in line with our forecast), and an adjusted EBITDA decline of 2% yoy, at EUR 344m (in line with our estimate), due mainly to a contraction in the Romanian segment adjusted EBITDA. We see the 2Q24 results as neutral as they are in line with our expectations in terms of sales and EBITDA, while the beat on the net income level was driven primarily by lower-than-expected D&A. We expect no significant market reaction.
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Krka: 2Q24 earnings review NEUTRAL • PZU: AGM refuses to discharge entire management board from performance of duties for 2023 • PKO BP: Supervisory Board updates its recommendations for the AGM, due to reconvene next week • Mo-BRUK: signs PLN 9m contract for ecological bomb decommissioning in Katowice NEUTRAL • Richter: EMA accepts Denosumab submission NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 2Q24E results preview (due on 30 July) NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 2Q24E results preview (due on 4 August) NE...
HEADLINES: • Noval Property: a Greek real estate growth story (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Pepco Group: weak lfl trends continued in 3Q; FY24E EBITDA guidance of EUR 900m maintained NEGATIVE • OTE: Greek government to launch EUR 80m voucher scheme, to boost fibre uptake, in September POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: announces establishing of Alarabia Alliances For Smart Advertisement, in partnership with the Saudi Company for Artificial Intelligence NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new job ...
European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • Text: 4Q23-24 (calendar 1Q24) results – EBITDA down 12% yoy, 11% below our forecast NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: giving credit where credit is due, but keep realistic lags in mind • PKO BP: partial resolutions of AGM, dividend approved, AGM paused • Poland macro: CPI well-behaved, wage growth still soaring • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q24 CHF mortgage saga charges of PLN 1,109m NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: calls to improve Air Traffic Control in Europe in wake of delays NEGATIVE • Public Power Cor...
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