EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Sphera Group: out of the shadows (stays BUY) • PCF Group: 1Q24 EBITDA above our and the market's expectations, driven by self-publishing POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 1Q24 review – net profit up 16% yoy, 10% the above consensus POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA as expected NEUTRAL • Echo Investment: 1Q24 – benign margin environment continuing for Polish homebuilders NEUTRAL • GTC: 1Q24 in line, management recommends PLN 0.22 DPS NEGATIVE • PGE: 1Q24 earnings in line with...
A director at Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A. bought 15,000 shares at 14.259EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...
HEADLINES: • InPost: strong 1Q24, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained; slight volume deceleration in 2Q24 so far POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q24 – occupancy and results stable so far; guidance maintained POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q24 above our expectations POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: 1Q24 – lower power prices offset by no tax on producers NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 22% yoy, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: weak 1Q24 results, ...
OTE has reported a decent set of 1Q24 results, with sales up 9% yoy, to EUR 878m (5% above our forecast), and an adjusted EBITDA increase of 2% yoy, to EUR 349m (in line with our estimate). We see the 1Q24 results as neutral, as they are in line with our expectations. We expect no significant market reaction.
HEADLINES: • mBank: solid 1Q24 results justify one of the top market valuations (1Q24 P/BV of 2.1x) POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24 results in line • CCC: 40% EBITDA beat in 1Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA miss in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • AmRest: 1Q24 broadly in line with our forecasts, but below the consensus NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q24 results – EBITDA below expectations on maintenance NEUTRAL • MedLife: 1Q24 results poin...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q24 results softer than demanding market expectations, but our medium-term outlook confirmed NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (29 April-5 May) • Huuuge Games: April bookings estimate at USD 11m, down 21% mom NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: April bookings estimate down 20% mom NEGATIVE • 11 bit studios: INDIKA release attracts very positive reviews on Steam, but low peak in number of players NEGATIVE • Cyf...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Electrica: takeaways from the FY23 earnings call NEGATIVE • Elm: 4Q23 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • OTE: planning to spin off its mobile infrastructure POSITIVE • OMV: acquires retail sites in Austria and Slovakia NEUTRAL • InPost: 4Q23E preview – adjusted EBITDA growth of 41% yoy expected (due on 28 March)
Firstly, the positives – After a weak period with declines in GR retail fixed, the segment seems to have finally inflected in Q4’23 (+1.2%) as easy comps kicked in. KPIs in general are healthy (rising BB/fiber/TV subs) while domestic wireless continues to display robust trends thanks to better mix (contract sub adds) which is accretive to ARPU. ICT is also set to ramp up further, as project implementation accelerates. Meanwhile, fibre deployment by competitors is progressing slowly, which, in it...
Firstly, the positives – After a weak period with declines in GR retail fixed, the segment seems to have finally inflected in Q4’23 (+1.2%) as easy comps kicked in. KPIs in general are healthy (rising BB/fiber/TV subs) while domestic wireless continues to display robust trends thanks to better mix (contract sub adds) which is accretive to ARPU. ICT is also set to ramp up further, as project implementation accelerates. Meanwhile, fibre deployment by competitors is progressing slowly, which, in it...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Public Power Corporation: shifting into high gear (stays BUY) • Turkey macro: CBRT extends the cautious pause • Magyar Telekom: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 16% yoy, in line with the consensus; strong 2024E guidance POSITIVE • NLB Group: strong 4Q23 results and massive increase in 2023 dividends POSITIVE • Kruk: announces PLN 1,012m of 2023E net profit NEUTRAL • OTE: 4Q23 results review – solid quarter, with 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth; EUR 450m shareholders' payout guidance PO...
OTE has reported a solid set of 4Q23 results, with its sales up 5% yoy, to EUR 930m (3% above our forecast), and an adjusted EBITDA increase of 2% yoy, to EUR 360m (in line with our estimate). We see the results and the 2024E outlook as solid, and we appreciate the increase in the guided shareholders’ returns. We expect a positive market reaction.
Q4 EBITDAaL +2.8% yoy, as expected, on easy comps – OTE has reported Q4 in sync with our expectations, with Q4 EBITDAaL finally inflecting (+2.8% following -1.5% in 9M23) bringing an end to the 3-quarter streak of negative yoy growth. This was driven by sequentially improved core trends (with GR fixed standing out, with retail revenues 1.2% following -3% in 9M23), better ICT due to phasing and an easy comp (with the yoy swing in Romania contributing c1.2pps to Q4 EBITDA growth). Overall, Q4 reve...
Q4 EBITDAaL +2.8% yoy, as expected, on easy comps – OTE has reported Q4 in sync with our expectations, with Q4 EBITDAaL finally inflecting (+2.8% following -1.5% in 9M23) bringing an end to the 3-quarter streak of negative yoy growth. This was driven by sequentially improved core trends (with GR fixed standing out, with retail revenues 1.2% following -3% in 9M23), better ICT due to phasing and an easy comp (with the yoy swing in Romania contributing c1.2pps to Q4 EBITDA growth). Overall, Q4 reve...
HEADLINES: • TBC Bank: 4Q23 results and conference call • PKO BP: decides to beef up FX mortgage provisions in 4Q23E NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (12-18 February) • OTE: 4Q23E results preview – 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 22 February)
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q23 results - stronger than expectations • OPAP: 3Q23 results and FY23 guidance slightly below expectations NEGATIVE • Fourlis: 3Q23 review - slightly weaker quarter, on soft Intersport results NEGATIVE • PGE: 3Q23 results in line with preliminary figures • Ten Square Games: earnings call takeaways - no major surprises, no detailed targets for 2024E NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB moves ahead wi...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: en route to the best year on record, by far (stays HOLD) • Alro: deep net loss of RON 230m in 3Q23 NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: 3Q23 reported net profit 4% lower yoy, fully in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: solid 3Q23 results, but spoiled, once again, by the Volksbank saga • Graphisoft Park: 3Q23 - steady as she goes • OTE: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • MedLife: targeting return to c.15% EBITDA margins NEUTRAL • ADNOC D...
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