EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q25 miss, due mainly to allegations about food safety in Czechia NEGATIVE • Kruk: 4Q25 results – bit of a mixed bag • Text: 3Q25-26 (calendar 4Q25) results – EBITDA down 25% yoy, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Enea: impairments and higher provisions to reduce 2025 net income by PLN 1.37bn and EBITDA by PLN 162m NEUTRAL • CTP: 4Q25 results and conference call • Richter: 4Q25 beat, on gross margin and tight opex control POSITIVE • Duna House: 4Q25 in line, guidance implies ...
OTE has reported a solid set of 4Q25 results, with its Greek sales up 9% yoy, to EUR 916m (6% above our forecast) and its Greek adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, to EUR 366m (in line with our estimate). The fixed-line segment recorded sales growth of 10.2% yoy, to EUR 536m (driven by an ICT sales hike of 57.8% yoy and a 2.6% increase yoy in retail sales, despite the 5.0% yoy drop in wholesale sales), while the mobile segment increased by 3.4% yoy, to EUR 340.5m, as the 5.2% increase in retail sales (dr...
OTE has reported a solid set of results (very good at the revenue level due to low margin ERF revenues, but EBITDAaL in-line) and given some good EBITDAaL guidance for FY26. We recently downgraded to Neutral due to the PPC FTTH overbuilder risk
Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...
Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 4Q prelims in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold • Budimex: bids rank highest in two PSE tenders NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 4Q25 operational results NEUTRAL • Romania macro: positive news • OTE: Greek telecoms regulator launches public consultations on 900MHz and 1,800MHz spectrum POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells 283MW UK solar portfolio to Schroders Greencoat POSITIVE • Aselsan: strategic JV agreement with CSG POSITIVE • Erste Bank: 4Q25E preview (due on...
HEADLINES: • Santander BP: posts solid 4Q25 numbers; rebranding costs guidance in line; DPS of PLN 46 seems very feasible NEUTRAL • Polish media: CPS's audience share at 22.30%, while WP TV is at 0.57% in January 2026 NEUTRAL • Develia: management targets for 2026E close to our forecasts NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 4Q25 results and dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Jumbo: January sales +8% on easy comps; guiding for 5% sales growth and EUR 310-320m net earnings in 2026E NEUTRAL • Turkish automotive: strong ...
EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...
HEADLINES: • OTE: multiple tailwinds supporting the equity story (stays BUY) • PZU: very strong 3Q25 bottom line, strong beat vs. expectations, but slower revenue growth raises questions for the future POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q25 above expectations; FY25E guidance trimmed due to slower November NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 12% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, 2% above our forecast and 11% above ...
We reiterate our BUY on OTE and increase our price target (PT) to EUR 23.0 (from EUR 20.3), implying 37% upside potential. Since our previous report on the company (October 2024), we have recognised multiple tailwinds reinforcing OTE’s equity story and our positive view on the name, including: 1) the finalisation of the Telekom Romania sale, which supports the FCF and dividend outlooks materially; 2) the implementation of CPI-related price increases, and the easing competitive pressure in the mo...
A director at Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A. sold 1,500 shares at 16.857EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: summer performance ahead of our estimates (upgraded to BUY) • Elm: clarity is on its way (stays BUY) • AmRest: 3Q25 below expectations NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q25 EBITDA above our expectations and the market by 3-6% NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: 3Q25 highlights before the call - good quarter with an 8% beat to our estimate, 2026E guidance POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q25 results beat, on record-high refining output POSITIVE • Romgaz: 3Q25 results - net income beat our expec...
Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...
Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...
OTE has reported a solid set of 3Q25 results, with the Greek sales up 5% yoy, to EUR 874m (2% above our forecast) and the Greek adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, to EUR 375m (in line with our estimate). The fixed-line segment recorded sales growth of 8% yoy, to EUR 468m (driven by an ICT sales hike of 13.6% yoy, a 1.3% increase yoy in retail sales and 4.2% yoy growth in wholesale sales), while the mobile segment remained flat, at EUR 342m, as the 2.7% increase in retail sales was offset by a 15% yoy dr...
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