reports
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Thoughts on upcoming spectrum auction
We give our thoughts on pricing and total spend ahead of the upcoming THB 121bn (USD 3.6bn) spectrum auction in Thailand (likely in May 2025). Reserve prices seem reasonable, but the early auction of expiring 2027 spectrum means total spend this year is likely to be above our original forecasts.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q4 23 review: Turning the corner as ARPU grew after more ...
Thai operators witnessed a notable uptick in growth as industry mobile ARPU reverted to growth after more than three years. EBITDA also bounced higher led by TRUE, setting the stage for 9-11% growth in FY24. Guided capex also suggests moderating capex intensity which is key driver of ROIC upside. The outlook is turning more optimistic than before, validated by our recent visit of the two telcos.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2023; Duopoly in Thailand & Malaysia
2022 was mixed in the ASEAN Telecom space. In 2023, we are likely to see improving trends in all 3 countries covered in this note driven by Covid bounce back with China re-opening borders as well as the benefit of consolidation in both Thailand and Malaysia.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) - 3Q22: Earnings Below Our And Co...
DTAC posted a qoq and yoy weaker net profit below our and consensus estimates on the huge one-off expenses related to amalgamation expenses. However, core earnings slightly increased qoq mainly from lower SG&A expense on effective cost control. Although we are positive on the NBTC allowing TRUE/DTAC to process their merger deal, DTAC/TRUE share prices are already priced in. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt50.00.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Kwanchai Atiphophai
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thailand Daily: Tuesday, October 25, 2022
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB/BUY/Bt146.00/Target: Bt186.00) 3Q22: Results in line. Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB/BUY/Bt71.75/Target: Bt89.00) 3Q22: Strong results. Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB/HOLD/Bt17.00/Target: Bt16.90) 3Q22: Results beat from outstanding non-II. Krungthai Card (KTC TB/SELL/Bt56.75/Target: Bt50.00) 3Q22: Results are in line. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB/BUY/Bt106.00/Target: Bt138.00) 3Q22: Results miss on extraordinary tax expenses. Total Access Communic...
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
BEC BEC WORLD PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCB SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
DTAC TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION PUBLIC CO. LTD.
DTAC-R TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION PUBLIC CO NVDR
KTB-R KRUNG THAI BANK PCL NVDR
KBANK-R KASIKORNBANK (NVDR)
SCB-R SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Jonathan Koh
- Kong Ho Meng
- Kwanchai Atiphophai
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Malaysia Research Team
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, October 25, 2022
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: 3Q22 economic activities – a mixed bag. Trade: September export growth lower, but above expectations. Results China Resources Cement (1313 HK/HOLD/HK$3.25/Target: HK$3.37): 3Q22: Below expectations; quarterly gross margin plunged to 6.4%. Downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA Results Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ/BUY/Rp4,530/Target: Rp5,500): 9M22: Results in line with expectations. MALAYSIA Update Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/HOLD/RM1.89/Target: RM1.92): Strong...
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) - Expect 3Q22 Earnings To Improve...
We expect 3Q22 net profit to be enhanced qoq on the back of: a) improving economic conditions; b) better market competition, which will boost new subscriber additions; c) stabilising ARPU; and d) lower handset subsidies. Moreover, we expect SG&A expense to decline to a normal level. We recommend investors to wait and see until there is a clearer picture on the merger process and the synergistic benefits after the merger is completed. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt50.00.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Chong Lee Len
- Jieqi Liu
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, September 21, 2022
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Observing policy effectiveness. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights BFI Finance (BFIN IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,155): One of the oldest multifinance companies in Indonesia. MALAYSIA Results Top Glove (TOPG MK/HOLD/RM0.70/Target: RM0.76): 4QFY22: Industry softness prevails. Maintain HOLD. SINGAPORE Update Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP/BUY/S$2.69/Target: S$2.90): Proxy to regional economic recovery and reopening. THAILAND Update Total Access Communication (DTAC TB/HO...
- Chris Hoare
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) - 2Q22: Net Profit Above Our And ...
DTAC posted a 2Q22 net profit above our and consensus estimates on the back of net one-time gain recognitions in 2Q22. However, stripping out the extraordinary items, DTAC’s 2Q22 core earnings were in line with our estimate. We have revised down our core earnings forecasts for 2022-23 to reflect the new revenue guidance from DTAC. The key catalyst should be the merger deal with TRUE. We have rolled over our target to next year. Downgrade to HOLD with a target price of Bt50.00.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Carolyn Ching
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Chong Lee Len
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Selvi Ocktaviani
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, July 18, 2022
REGIONAL Sector Plantation: Indonesia to suspend export levy for 1.5 months to expedite exports and raise domestic selling prices, which translates into higher FFB prices. GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: COVID-Zero to cap rebound in 2H22; lower GDP target to 3.7%. Sector Healthcare: Regaining momentum in 2H22. INDONESIA Sector Telecommunications: Newcomer MORA adds diversity in telco industry and speeds up FMC implementation. MALAYSIA Results DiGi.Com (DIGI MK/BUY/RM3.42/Target: RM...
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) - Expect 2Q22 Earnings To Soften ...
We expect 2Q22 net profit to soften qoq on the back of the economic slowdown hurting consumer spending and pressuring DTAC’s service revenue trend. The key date to watch is 10 Jul 22, with NBTC’s board expected to make a decision on the TRUE/DTAC merger deal. DTAC’s share price has mostly priced in the negatives and provides an 8% upside to the tender offer price. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt52.00.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
Total Access Communications Plc: 1 director
A director at Total Access Communications Plc bought 222,000 shares at 45.000THB and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the las...
- Chris Hoare
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Chun Sung Oong
- Clement Ho Jia Xing
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Peerawat Dentananan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, April 25, 2022
REGIONAL Sector Plantation: Trading opportunity for plantation companies with higher Malaysia operations exposure, thanks to Indonesia’s flip-flopping policy. GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Under the shadow of the lockdown. Results Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$11.18/Target: HK$20.00): 1Q22: Net profit dropped 8% qoq, missing estimates. Maintain BUY. Cut target price from HK$21.50 to HK$20.00. Sinopharm Group (1099 HK/SELL/HK$17.02/Target: HK$15.00): 1Q22: Earnings up 17.4% yoy; COVID-19 out...
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) - 1Q22: Results Beat Our And Mark...
1Q22 net profit beat our and consensus estimates by 16% and 7% respectively due to better cost control. Management expects the outlook to be better in the next couple of quarters on the back of better economic conditions. Maintain HOLD as DTAC’s share price has increased 60% in the past six months and should have priced in most of the positive factors. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt52.00.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Peerawat Dentananan
Thailand Daily - Monday, April 25, 2022
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Construction Margin pressure from high material prices to improve in 2H22 from new backlog. Retail 1Q22 results preview: Recovery across the sector. Results Total Access Communication (DTAC TB/HOLD/Bt47.75/Target: Bt52.00) 1Q22: Results beat our and market estimates; merger deal remains the catalyst.
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