EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Gentoo Media: one step back, two steps forward (stays BUY) • Colt CZ Group SE: 1Q25 results – strong beat, no change in guidance POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 earnings call – management optimistic on 2H25E, but we see challenges NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Elbit Systems: raises USD 512m on the Nasdaq POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25E preview (due on 26 May) • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q25E...
HEADLINES • Budimex: growth acceleration on the horizon (upgraded to BUY) • Halyk Bank: 1Q25 results highlights before the call POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA 15% above our forecast, but April sales disappoint NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: strong 1Q25 - EBITDA 15% above our expectations; 2025E conservative guidance POSITIVE • Titan Cement: completes divestment of its 75% stake in Adocim in Eastern Türkiye NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: key takeaways from our call with the CF...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid, but neutral, set of 1Q25 results; FX mortgage saga still eating material part of profits • Jahez: mixed 1Q25 results, affected by seasonality and intensified competition NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA beats expectations by 2-8%, on FX differences NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: April sales growth slows down to 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: April sales growth decelerates to 6% yoy NEGATIVE • Richter: Trump promises 30-80% cuts in US drug prices NEGATIVE • For...
Following the CMB’s approval on 30 April, Ford Otosan’s earlier announced (board decision dated 27 November 2024) 900% bonus issue, raising the number of outstanding shares from 350.9m to 3,509.1m, took place on 7 May. Therefore, we have adjusted our 12M price target (PT) of TRY 1,554/share for the Ford Otosan shares, to TRY 155.4/share, effective as of today. There are no changes in our earnings estimates or valuation for the company.
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 1Q25 results largely in line NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Enea: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA 13% above our expectations, driven by strong Supply; only 8% of 2025E capex plan realisation POSITIVE • Titan America: soft 1Q25 results, guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Romania macro: reflections on the resignation of PM Ciolacu • Brisa: takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: earnings call takeaways - targeting 2025E revenu...
HEADLINES: • Romania: first round of presidential election signals tough times ahead • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 April-4 May) • Al Arabia: signs Riyadh train and buses contract POSITIVE • Al Arabia: Faden Media signs a contract with the Jeddah Municipality POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: April bookings estimate down 10% mom, to USD 9m NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: April bookings estimate down 3% mom, deeper declines in core titles NEGATIVE • Gentoo Media: delisting from the Oslo Børs to b...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak set of results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • Akbank: 1Q25 highlights – management cautious on margin, but positive on fees • Yapi Kredi: 1Q25 highlights, before the call – beat on NII and fees (evolved better than the guidance) • Solutions by STC: weak 1Q25 financial results, disappointing revenue growth NEGATIVE • Poland macro: April data paint an encouraging picture • PCF Group: PLN 173m write-offs to hit the 2024 results, related mostly to Bifrost NEGATIVE • Richter: positive ...
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: the art of the meal (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Diagnostyka: strong 4Q24, in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 1Q25 a little below 1Q25E expectations, but valuation (1Q25 P/BV at 1.2x) still very low NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q25 results almost in line with expectations, ROE of 18% fully priced in by 1Q25 P/BV of 2.2x NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1Q25 sales +31% yoy, to EUR 1.5bn, in line NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strategy update, expands pipeline to...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: post-4Q24 earnings call takeaways – supportive 2025E outlook, exploring new markets NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: Alteri PE ready to buy Poundland, according to Sky News POSITIVE • Tofas: Competition Authority approves acquisition of Stellantis Otomotiv Pazarlama POSITIVE • Elm: announces completion of procedures to acquire Thiqah POSITIVE • Erste Bank: 1Q25E preview (due on 30 April) • Bank Handlowy: 1Q25E preview (due on 8 May) • ING BSK: 1Q25E preview (due on 8 May) • CCC:...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: shifting up a gear for e-commerce growth (stays BUY) • OMV: making chemical bonds (stays BUY) • Budimex: final 4Q24 results confirm prelims fully NEUTRAL • Budimex: recommends PLN 25.43 DPS from the 2024 earnings, 4.5% dividend yield NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Enea: key takeaways from the 4Q24 conference NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: release date of The Alters set as 13 June NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • Enea: full 4Q24 results in line with preliminaries; PLN 7.9bn capex planned in 2025E NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 15% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kruk: issues 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – a strong start to the year POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – 4% ASK growth yoy NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: March sales growth recovers to 13% yoy, but still well below our FY expectations NEUTRAL • Bank M...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: tariff impact – a preliminary assessment • VIGO Photonics: signs framework agreement with PCO on infrared arrays; minimum 2026-31 contract value of PLN 191.9m POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: confirms 4Q24 preliminary EBITDA of PLN 261m NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: Medicover gets conditional approval to acquire CityFit gyms NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • CEZ: ANO wants to nationalise CEZ • Richter: proposes D...
HEADLINES: • Mavi: a mispriced story with solid fundamentals (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkish banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, Isbank and Yapi Kredi with HOLDs) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: just move on up (stays BUY) • Benefit Systems: March sports cards addition surprises positively, mostly in Poland POSITIVE • MOL: announces dividend proposal of HUF 275/share NEUTRAL • EU macro: cohesion funds can be deployed for defence, housing and energy investments • Dino...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong delivery in 4Q24, due mainly to the lower costs booked POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q24 EBIT 7% above our forecast; The Witcher 4 to be released after 2026E NEUTRAL • KazMunayGas: 4Q24 results – below expectations NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: earnings call takeaways – focus on flagship games’ monetisation improvement in 2Q25E NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H24 earnings call NEUTRAL...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 17% yoy, 8% above the consensus POSITIVE • Alior Bank: 2027E targets – PLN 2.6bn of net profit; ROE above 18%; payout ratio above 50% POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: mixed newsflow – solid 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA, strong dividend recommendation, but disappointing trading update POSITIVE • Eurowag: 2H24 operating results in line, special dividend announced NEUTRAL • Polish retail: Zabka's 4Q24 below the consensus NEGATIVE • CEZ: up...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: conditional USD 420m agreement to buy leading MAC Group fitness chain in Türkiye POSITIVE • Inter Cars: February sales growth decelerates to 3% yoy NEGATIVE • CTP: issues EUR 1bn of green bonds in two tranches, 6Y and 10Y POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: signs agreement with Iveco to develop heavy truck cabin models NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: comments on electricity price freeze for 4Q25 NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: acquires Lithuanian real estate valuation platform ...
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