A director at Great Wall Motor Co bought 160,000 shares at 13.610CNY and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile: Weekly: 2024 as a year of pullback as evidenced by ytd data. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium. Renewable Energy: Solar: Awaiting catalyst for sustainable valuation recovery; the rise of N-type cell. Update Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.18/Target: HK$9.00): Margin pressure bigger than expected; downgrade from BUY to HOLD. Cut target price from HK$13.50 to HK$9.00. Li Auto (2015 HK/SELL/HK$113.20/Target: HK$100.00): Doub...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: 2024 as a year of pullback as evidenced by ytd data. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium. Renewable Energy: Solar: Awaiting catalyst for sustainable valuation recovery; the rise of N-type cell. Update Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.18/Target: HK$9.00): Margin pressure bigger than expected; downgrade from BUY to HOLD. Cut target price from HK$13.50 to HK$9.00. Li Auto (2015 HK/SELL/HK$113.20/Target: HK$100.00): Double wham...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We add a mix of turnaround stocks and beneficiaries of policy support to our BUY list − CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return: Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks trounced the FBMKLCI in Nov 23, mostly thanks to Hume’s run-up. De...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90): 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.76/Target: HK$4.00): 3Q23: Below expectations; 3Q23 WTG sales growth slows to +6.0% yoy. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$10.82/Target: HK$13.50): 3Q23: Earnings tripl...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: We expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Potential Bull Market in 4Q23: Our picks: BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, MAPI, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Handful Of Events To Capitalise On: Our Alpha Picks modestly outperformed the FBMKLCI in Sep 23. Oct 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB a...
China’s PEV retail sales growth accelerated to 40% yoy in the third week of September, driven by seasonality and stimulus measures. CPCA estimates Sep 23 PEV sales at 750,000 units (+22.7% yoy/+7.4% mom), in line with expectations. The top EV companies in China jointly saw 7% mom and 17% wow growth in insurance registrations. BYD’s insurance registrations grew 19.8% mom/20.7% wow to 64,700 units during 18-24 Sep 23, hitting a record high. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Li Auto.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines still loss-making but improving; expecting a turnaround in 2H23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$26.40/Target: HK$39.30): 1H23: In line; expecting a smooth price hike. Estun Automation (002747 CH/BUY/Rmb23.23/Target: Rmb31.50): 2Q23: Earnings impacted by forex loss, but robot business remains solid. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.30/Target: HK$5.20): 2Q23: Results rebound qoq, but 1H23 earnings still fall short of tar...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries like Baidu, COPH, CR Beer, CR Land, Ping An Insurance and Sands China to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Again, An Outperformance In Jul 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR, MAPI; short ADRO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Jul 23. Au...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in July, and add CG Services and Li Auto to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In Jun 23: Our picks are BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, BMRI, BUKA, SMGR, KLBF and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: More Re-energised in July: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Jun 23. Jul 23 picks: BUY BAT, Malaysia Airports, Mr DIY, My EG Services, NationGate and Yinson. SINGAPORE ...
China’s PV retail sales dropped 10% yoy and 25% mom to 425,000 units during 1-11 Jun 23, missing estimates, due to high-base effect and wage cuts. Passenger EV retail sales grew 18% yoy and dipped 4% mom to 160,000 units, below estimates but still better than the overall PV market. Nio cut product prices by Rmb30,000 or c. 10% across the board for cancelling its free battery swap services. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector, with preference for the EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: We like oversold sectors like consumer and TMT. Add COSCO Shipping Port, KE Holdings, Kuaishou and Kweichow Moutai to our BUY list and Great Wall Motor to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in May 23: Our picks are BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, BMRI, BUKA, SMGR, KLBF and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Anticipating A Lull June: Our Alpha Picks slightly underperformed the FBMKLCI in May 23. June 23 picks: BUY B...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: We like oversold sectors like consumer and TMT. Add COSCO Shipping Port, KE Holdings, Kuaishou and Kweichow Moutai to our BUY list and Great Wall Motor to our SELL list. Sector Property Management: GFA expansion largely on track; weak economic recovery weighing on community value-added service. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in May 23: Our picks are BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, BMRI, BUKA, SMGR, KLBF and MAPI. SINGAPORE Stra...
China took over Japan’s position as the world’s largest car exporter in 1Q23 with vehicle export volume spiking 75% yoy to 1.49m units in 4M23, driven by EVs. Exports are emerging as the new growth driver of China’s EV industry. As for the China market, passenger EV retail sales in the first two weeks of May doubled yoy and grew 17% mom, in line with expectations. China is mulling stimulus for promoting EV sales in rural areas. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT with preference for the EV segment. Top BUYs: B...
CPCA expects China’s retail sales of PV and passenger EV to drop 1.3%/8.4% mom in Apr 23, given the sharp mom drop in the last week of Apr 23. China’s auto sales were still curbed by the wait-and-see attitude amid a price war, but this is abating with car prices stabilising and more new models being launched. During the Golden Week of the Labour Day holiday, auto retail sales value grew 25.1% yoy, beating expectations. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD and CATL. Top SELL: Ganfeng Lithium.
GWM’s 1Q23 net profit came in worse than expected at Rmb174m (-89% yoy/+65% qoq). Stripping out one-off items, GWM registered core net loss of Rmb217m in 1Q23. The disappointing 1Q23 results were due to sales declines and price cuts, which squeezed margins. We cut our 2023 net profit forecast by 14% to Rmb3,501m and keep those for 2024-25 at Rmb3,462m/Rmb3,274m respectively. Maintain SELL. Cut target price from HK$6.00 to HK$5.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Initiate Coverage Aviation Airline recovery largely priced in; focus on rebuilding balance sheet strength. Re-initiate coverage with UNDERWEIGHT on the aviation sector. Results Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.24/Target: HK$5.20) 1Q23: Core earnings turned negative, missing our estimates. Maintain SELL. Cut target price to HK$5.20. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb27.23/Target: Rmb30.00) 1Q23: Net profit misses expectations; not entirely unexpected. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/BU...
GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage Aviation: Airline recovery largely priced in; focus on rebuilding balance sheet strength. Re-initiate coverage with UNDERWEIGHT on the aviation sector. Results Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.24/Target: HK$5.20): 1Q23: Core earnings turned negative, missing our estimates. Maintain SELL. Cut target price to HK$5.20. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb27.23/Target: Rmb30.00): 1Q23: Net profit misses expectations; not entirely unexpected. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/BUY/...
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