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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02.04.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Good flow rate at M-11. Very strong performance at Mateguafa Attic Hz wells – The M‑11 well has been brought online from the C7 formation, which contains 18 ft of net pay, at 784 bbl/d (392 bbl/d net) with a 26% water cut. The well also intersected ~30 ft of net oil pay in the C9, which will be brought into production at a later stage. Net production from the M‑7 and M‑9 ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 27.03.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.45 per share: High production, reserves addition at Tapir – Production has increased to 5,325 boe/d, up from 4,900 boe/d in early March, driven by rising output from the M‑9 Hz well. Further growth is expected with the imminent addition of the M‑11 well, which encountered 48 ft of net pay across the C7 and C9 formations and is scheduled to be brought online in the coming weeks. M‑11 in...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Increasing materiality with exposure to ...

• FY25 production and YE25 net debt were previously disclosed. • FY26 guidance of 40+ mboe/d is reiterated. YE26 output remains guided at ~65 mboe/d. • The guidance is unchanged despite 1Q26 production being impacted by a 24‑day maintenance shut-in at Triton. Legacy assets still averaged 38.5 mboe/d YTD, rising to 50+ mboe/d after Triton resumed on 9 March. • Adding the pro forma contributions from the recently acquired assets (not all the transactions are completed yet), production is running a...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 13.03.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A0.22 per share: Raising new equity for Austria and Italy – ADX has raised A$4.4 mm of new equity priced at A$0.027 per share. Participants will also receive one unlisted option for every two new shares with an exercise price of A$0.0405 per share. New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C; Target price of C$1.25 per share: Positive well result. Supportive environment – Ngaere‑1 is currently producing around 1...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 27.02.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of C$0.21 per share: Well test results at Welchau support interpretation of an updip light oil accumulation – Following a small acidisation treatment (6 m³ across 45 m of perforations) in the Reifling interval at the Welchau‑1 well, gas and light oil were recovered at surface during swabbing operations. Although stable inflow was not achieved—indicating that the limited acid volume did not access the ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22.01.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C; Target price of C$1.70 per share: Raising new equity – New Zealand is raising up to C$3.5 mm of new equity at a price of C$0.20 per share to progress its gas storage project. Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK46 per share: 2026: Drilling Resumes in Gabon, EG Normalises, and Visibility Improves on EG‑23 – 4Q25 production averaged 9,928 boe/d, comprising 5,343 boe/d from Gabon (as previously report...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Over US$300 mm FCF in 2026. Potential to...

• 4Q25 production averaged 33.5 mboe/d, including 1.4 mbbl/d from Lancaster, slightly ahead of our 32.7 mboe/d forecast. • The balance sheet at the end of 2025 was in line with expectations, taking into account the timing of liftings from Triton. • January‑to‑date production has averaged ~43 mboe/d, with current rates of ~50 mboe/d comprising 20 mboe/d at Bruce, 21 mboe/d at Triton, and 6 mbbl/d at Lancaster. The second Triton compressor has been commissioned, and with Evelyn EV‑02 and Belinda a...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09.01.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Accelerating drilling following C$13.65 mm financing – Following the closing of the C$13.65 mm convertible financing, Condor plans to accelerate its Uzbekistan drilling programme by deploying a second rig, enabling the drilling of 12 new wells in 2026. This programme has the potential to lift gross production to 18–20 mboe/d by YE26 and materially increase reserves. The C$13....

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Another accretive gas acquisition

• Serica is acquiring a Southern North Sea (SNS) asset package from Spirit Energy for ~US$74 mm, with an effective economic date of 1 January 2025. The assets produced 13.5 mboe/d in 1H25 (96% gas) and hold 18.7 mmboe of 2P reserves. Completion is expected in 2H26, with an expected modest cash payment at closing. • Key assets acquired include: (1) a 15% WI in Cygnus, one of the UK’s largest gas fields (operated by Ithaca), contributing 8.6 mmboe net 2P reserves and 4 mboe/d net production, (2) ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/12/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.40p per share: Equity raise from blue chip new investors bolsters balance sheet ahead of busy 2026 – Corcel has raised £3 mm of new equity at a price of 0.35 p per share from two blue chip new investors. Following the raise, Corcel’s cash balance is expected to reach ~£6 mm by YE25. In addition, Sintana Energy will pay Corcel ~US$2 mm in cash upon closing the acquisition of a 5% interest in KON‑16. ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/11/2025

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.40 per share: Another positive result at Mateguafa Attic – The M-6 vertical well has encountered 30 ft of net oil pay in the Carbonera C9 formation (previously named Guadalupe). This compares favourably with the results of the M-5 well that encountered ~ 26 feet of net oil pay in the same formation. This result provides a strong foundation for the first horizontal well at Mateguafa (M-HZ7), already spudded and expected to come onstream in Decemb...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): UK budget neutral for Serica

• Average 3Q25 production was 27.5 mboe/d, comprising 15.4 mboe/d from Bruce, 7.7 mboe/d from Triton, and 4.4 mboe/d from other assets. This performance is in line with expectations, given issues at Triton, that are now solved, were previously flagged. • Production at the Bruce hub is above 20 mboe/d, though output was temporarily curtailed to ~16 mboe/d in October. • Portfolio production had rebounded to once again be over 50,000 boe/d, of which Triton was 25.3 mboe/d ahead of planned subsea wo...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/11/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: A$3.5 mm funding boost ahead of busy activity programme – ADX has raised A$3.5 mm through a new equity placement at A$0.026 per share. Investors in the placement will also receive one option for every two new shares subscribed, exercisable at A$0.039 per share. The capital raise strengthens ADX’s balance sheet ahead of its 2026 work programme and effectively removes the funding ov...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/11/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Busy 1H26 – 3Q25 WI sales averaged 251 boe/d, in line with expectations. The company held ~A$4 mm in cash at the end of September, also in line with forecasts. A busy operational period is anticipated in 1H26. Flow testing at Welchau is scheduled to recommence in January, starting with fluid sampling and pressure measurements in the already perforated Reifling formation—the shallo...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Farm-in transaction boosts upside at Tri...

• Serica has agreed to acquire a 40% interest in Licence P2530 from Finder Energy for an upfront consideration of US$0.65 mm. The licence contains the Wagtail discovery. Should the joint venture proceed to Phase C (commitment to drill, with a decision to be made by the end of August 2026), Serica will pay Finder an additional £0.94 mm. • Wagtail was originally discovered in 1986, encountering an 11-metre net oil column within Fulmar reservoir sandstones. Recent 3D seismic reprocessing suggests t...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 24/10/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.80 per share: Well results derisk the deeper clastic play. The horizontal leg could add 13-20 mmcf/d – Condor’s inaugural well in Uzbekistan has intersected 28.5 meters of net gas pay within the productive carbonate reservoir; which in line with expectations. The company now plans to drill a 1,000-meter horizontal section through this interval, with results anticipated in November. IP rate...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): 25 mboe/d net production at Triton

• Triton production has ramped to over 25,000 boed net to Serica. This elevated level of output could be sustained until the commencement of the Bittern pipework in November. • The pace of ramp-up has exceeded forecasts. For 4Q25, we currently model average production at Triton of approximately 7 mboe/d net to Serica. Our FY25 corporate production estimate stands at ~27.5 mboe/d. • Serica remains well-positioned for inorganic growth, supported by a robust balance sheet and substantial tax loss ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Major potential acquisition

• Serica has agreed to acquire BP’s 32% interest in the P111 and P2544 licences in the Central North Sea. P111 includes the Culzean gas condensate field—the UK North Sea’s largest producing gas asset. • Culzean commenced production in 2019, with remaining net 2P reserves of ~33 mmboe attributable to BP as of 1 January 2025. Net production to BP in 1H25 was 25.5 mboe/d. The remaining interests are held by TotalEnergies (49.99%) and NEO NEXT (18.01%). • The transaction consideration includes an up...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 10/10/2025

Please click here to access the financial metrics for Auctus' coverage universe AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.05 per share: Another operational setback at Triton; value and distribution profile intact – Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production. Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Another operational setback at Triton; v...

• Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production. • Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved. • In the absence of further clarity, we conservatively assume that Triton production will be constrained until the scheduled Bittern pipeline shutdown in November. • We now forecast 2025 group production of 27.5 mboe/d, revised down from 30.8 mboe/d. • Reflecting the 2025 d...

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