reports
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Another operational setback at Triton; v...
• Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production. • Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved. • In the absence of further clarity, we conservatively assume that Triton production will be constrained until the scheduled Bittern pipeline shutdown in November. • We now forecast 2025 group production of 27.5 mboe/d, revised down from 30.8 mboe/d. • Reflecting the 2025 d...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 03/10/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.40 per share: Dry hole at Mateguafa Oeste but three more prospects to drill – The Mateguafa Oeste was water wet. Our ReNAV for the well was £0.09 per share. We did not carry any production from this prospect in our cash flow forecast. The rig will now move to Mateguafa Attic where the Mateguafa 5 vertical well will be drilled in November. This is a low risk well that is a step out to M...
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
MATD PETRO MATAD
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
BP. BP P.L.C.
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
CRCL CORCEL
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
UKOG UK OIL & GAS PLC
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Depth, breadth, and a cash windfall
• Serica is acquiring Prax Upstream from administrators for ~US$26 mm, adding 8–10 mboe/d net production in 2026 and 11 mmboe of 2P reserves, diversifying exposure to a key growth basin. • Prax holds a 100% WI in Lancaster with 2.6 mmbbl 2P oil reserves, 3-4 mbbl/d production forecast in 2026 (given COP in 3Q26). • Prax has also executed two SPAs (closing in 1Q26). Serica will acquire from TotalEnergies a 40% WI in the Greater Laggan Area (GLA), a gas producing hub (4.6 mmboe 2P reserves and 5....
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/09/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Deep dive into Italy – ADX has released further details on its C.R 150.AU permit; located in shallow waters offshore western Sicily, ~50 km from a potential onshore tie-in to the TransMed pipeline, which transports Algerian gas to Europe. While initial efforts centred on the Nilde oil field, ADX has shifted its strategic focus toward gas, reflecting the evidence of high quality ga...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 05/09/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Firming-up the exploration portfolio in Austria – ADX has matured its Austrian exploration portfolio following: (1) recent drilling results, (2) licence area modifications, and (3) updated technical evaluations. Excluding the Welchau-1 well drilled in 2024—where resource classification remains pending due to suspended flow testing (following an environmental objection)—ADX has del...
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Temporary blip at Triton
• Production at the Triton FPSO is currently running at a reduced rate due to a vibration issue within the compression trains, requiring bearing replacement. Normal output is expected to resume by end-September. Triton achieved net production of over 25,000 boe/d in August using only one compressor. The restart of the second unit could push volumes above this level. • In parallel, subsea intervention work on a pipeline at the Bittern field, originally scheduled for 2026, has been scheduled for N...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/08/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Formal permit award in Italy adds gas exploration upside – ADX has been formally awarded the C.R150.AU offshore exploration permit in Sicily. The permit has an initial term of 6 years, with the option for 2 additional 3-year renewal periods. In the event of a commercial discovery, an exploitation concession may be granted for 20 years, extendable by a further 10 years. ADX is now ...
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): High production at Triton. More to come
• Net production at Triton has averaged 20 mboe/d over the past two weeks. This reflects the progressive restart of all the fields, with further upside expected as additional wells are brought online. These include (1) productive wells from Bittern and Gannet E, and (2) newly drilled wells at Guillemot North West and Evelyn, which have yet to commence production. • As a reminder, Serica has a 100% interest in the Evelyn field, and has already stated that the well showed ‘encouraging results’ whe...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 08/08/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: High production at Z&G. Low risk exploration drilling in Austria to start in 4Q25/1Q26 – 2Q25 net production of 303 boe/d was higher than our expectations of ~270 boe/d following a 5 well intervention programme at the Zisterdorf and Gaiselberg fields in the Vienna Basin. The programme included (1) repair of subsurface equipment, (2) clean out of a down hole sand control (3) perfor...
EOG EUROPA OIL & GAS (HOLDINGS) PLC
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SNM SHAMARAN PETROLEUM CORP.
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
BP. BP P.L.C.
CNE CANACOL ENERGY LTD
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
ORC/B ORCA EXPLORATION GROUP CL B
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
TNZ TENAZ ENERGY CORP
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Robust 1H25 cashflow ahead of production...
• While 1H25 production was only 24.7 mboe/d with BKR producing 16.7 mboe/d, Serica’s FY25 production guidance of 33-35 mboe/d implies a significant 2H25 uplift to 41.3–45.3 mboe/d, as Triton ramps up to full production and BKR rebounds. We continue to forecast 4Q25 production of ~48 mboe/d, supported by expected contributions of 21–22 mboe/d from BKR and ~25 mboe/d from Triton. • Production in 2H25 will benefit from new wells coming onstream as a result of Triton drilling, with five successful ...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/08/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Operating update – Net production in Austria was 303 boe/d. The company held A$4.8 mm in cash at the end of June. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price of C$0.35 per share: Successful flow test at North-MGH boosts expected 2H26 gas production to 7-10 mmcf/d – The MGH-20 well in the North Mengoepeh (MGH) field tested 2.8 mmcf/d with associated oil. This is a positive surprise a...
QEC QUESTERRE ENERGY CORP.
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
RKH ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION
OMV OMV AG
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
BWE BW ENERGY
SEPLAT SEPLAT ENERGY PLC
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
PXEN PROSPEX ENERGY PLC
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
PRD PREDATOR OIL & GAS HOLDINGS PLC
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
MCFNF MCF ENERGY LTD
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Triton ramp-up to full production delaye...
• Following the July production restart at Triton FPSO, ramp-up to the steady-state plateau of has been delayed into August. With Bittern now back online and Evelyn and Gannet expected to follow shortly, net production at Triton is set to reach 25 mboe/d in the near future. • It is expected that the production plateau will exceed this level once the new wells are then brought onstream later in August. • The delay has not resulted in any incremental costs. • Production from other assets remains r...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/07/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ New Zealand Energy (NZE CN)C; Target price of C$1.70 per share: Equity raise to progress Tariki gas storage – New Zealand Energy (NZE) has raised C$3 mm of new equity priced at C$0.18 per share. The proceeds of the raise will fund the desktop studies required to prepare the field development plan, derisking the gas storage project ahead of expected monetization within the next 12 months. It will also fund the repayment of the convertib...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 04/07/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Under review: Potential demerger – The management of Chariot is considering splitting the company in two entities, one focusing on upstream oil and gas and the other on renewable power. The latter will also house the hydrogen and water assets. Pending further details, we are placing the company under review. New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C: Operating update in New Zealand. Equity raise – The copper Moki-2 well has bee...
Serica Energy: 1 director
A director at Serica Energy bought 45,000 shares at 161p and the significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Start up at Triton in line with expectat...
• Repairs and scheduled maintenance work on the Triton FPSO have been completed, and the restart process for production operations is now underway. • This is consistent with the management’s indicated timing of “around end of June” as stated in the AGM update. • Production is expected to ramp up progressively, reaching steady-state levels later in July. • No further shutdowns are planned for Triton in 2025. We continue to anticipate 2H25 production in the range of 41–47 mboe/d. Before shutdown, ...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 23/05/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Adding four low risk drill-ready shallow gas prospects to start drilling by YE25 – ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria. The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin. Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date. The prospects benefit from AVO anomalies, enhanc...
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
CNE CAIRN ENERGY PLC
PANR PANTHEON RESOURCES
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SAVE SAVANNAH ENERGY
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
ANGS ANGUS ENERGY
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
AST ASCENT RESOURCES PLC
HEX HELIX EXPLORATION PLC
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Another very good well result. Triton on...
• From January to April 2025, production averaged 26.5 mboe/d. This is consistent with 1Q25 production of 27.6 mboe/d, which benefited from one month of output from Triton. • Repairs at Triton have been completed, and production remains on track to restart in June. The FY25 production guidance of 33–37 mboe/d, with US$220–250 mm in capex, has been reaffirmed. Assuming 2Q25 production of 25 mboe/d (excluding Triton), this implies 2H25 production of 41–47 mboe/d. • The BE01 well (SQZ: 100% WI) has...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/05/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GPRK GEOPARK
MSMN MOSMAN OIL AND GAS
CNE CAIRN ENERGY PLC
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
GENL GENEL ENERGY
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SNM SHAMARAN PETROLEUM CORP.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
BWE BW ENERGY
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
IGAS IGAS ENERGY PLC
TNZ TENAZ ENERGY CORP
- Hybridan Team
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 08/05/2025
Claire Louise Noyce Managing Partner, Chief Executive Birchin Court, 20 Birchin Lane, London EC3V 9DU Tel direct: +44 (0)203 764 2341 Mobile: +44 (0)7894 267 530 Call me on teams E-mail: Whilst it suits me to email now, I do not expect any response outside your own work times. Linkedin: /in/claire-louise-noyce-25b4588a Website: Follow us on X @hybridanllp Follow us on Linkedin Hybridan LLP would love your feedback. Post ...
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