Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Macau’s Sep 25 GGR was MOP$18.3b, down 17% mom but up 6% yoy, recovering to 83% of 2019’s level. This missed market consensus by 3%, largely due to Super Typhoon Ragasa forcing a 33-hour closure of all casinos and disrupting entry points. However, we expect October to be another strong month due to the Golden Week holiday. We hence raise our full-year GGR forecast by 1% to MOP$245b, implying 8% yoy growth and 84% recovery to 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in September 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in August 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on de...
Aug 25 GGR came in at MOP$22.2b, setting yet another post-pandemic high. The Aug 25 GGR remained largely flat mom and increased 12% yoy, recovering to 91% of 2019’s level. For the first eight months combined, GGR reached MOP$163.1b, up 7% yoy and recovering to 82% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Macau’s gaming sector. Top pick remains Galaxy (27 HK).
ISticking With China We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 3-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Short-term supports to w...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in July 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on deve...
In 2Q25, GGR increased 7% qoq, with improvements in the base mass segment driven by visitations, and normalised property EBITDA grew 3% qoq. SC has adopted a more aggressive customer reinvestment policy since late-Apr 25 to drive its business growth. Going forward, it will implement the strategy flexibly across its entire Macau portfolio, aiming to achieve an annual EBITDA of US$2.7b in the short term. Maintain BUY; target price unchanged at HK$22.00.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
Jun 25 GGR came in at MOP$21.1b, up 19% yoy but down 1% mom, slightly below its May level when it hit a new post-pandemic high. Jun 25 GGR beat consensus by 9% and recovered to 88% of 2019’s level. Macau’s gaming revenue has regained momentum in recent months, driven by a strong May Day Golden Week holiday and sustained demand thereafter. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Macau gaming sector. Top pick remains Galaxy (27 HK).
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Modest recovery with construction rebound. Sector Macau Gaming Jun 25 GGR beat consensus by 9%; GGR has regained momentum in recent months. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp700) Expanding active lifestyle retail business; 1Q25 NPAT up 21% yoy. MAL...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in June 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on deve...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In May: Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising Emphasis On Infrastructure Plays: Our May 25 Alpha Picks outperformed with resounding success. June 25 picks: Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, MYEG, Northeast Group. SINGAPORE S...
Macau’s May 25 GGR came in at MOP$21.2b, up 5% yoy and 12% mom. May 25 GGR beat consensus by 3% and recovered to 82% of 2019’s level, marking the strongest month in 2025 so far and the highest level since borders reopened in Jan 23. In Apr 25, visitations to Macau were up 19% yoy, recovering to 90% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Macau’s gaming sector. Top pick remains Galaxy (27 HK).
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