Apr 24 GGR was in line with our estimate but 2% above consensus forecast. While we expect a GGR surge in the coming May Golden Week, we see margin pressures for companies under our coverage in the coming quarters, given higher marketing expenses and labour costs rising from the intensifying industry competition, and potential market share losses from the ongoing facility upgrades. Downgrade the sector to MARKET WEIGHT.
SC’s adjusted EBITDA missed the street’s estimates, impacted by its ongoing renovations and a lower hold rate. Management expects the renovations to continue to disrupt operations throughout the year, especially during the summer holidays. We foresee pressure on SC’s EBITDA margin due to its ongoing facility upgrades, the industry’s persistently intensive promotional activities, and uncertainty in China’s economic recovery. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$26.80. 1Q24 results belo...
In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
The sequential uptick in Mar 24’s GGR, which surpassed our and the street’s estimates, implies a sustained and resilient gaming demand after the CNY holiday. Notably, this marks another milestone as the industry’s GGR peaked at MOP19.5b after the reopening, marginally above Oct 23’s level. We are confident on the industry’s growth momentum. May 24 Golden Week is a potential catalyst for the sector. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK).
Feb 24 GGR was below our and the street’s estimates despite the strong demand seen during the CNY holidays, likely due to volatility in win rates and post-holiday seasonal effects. Nevertheless, Macau is focusing on expanding its international markets, which we view positively as efforts to uplift casino and non-gaming revenues. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK). Feb 24 GGR declined 4% mom. According to the Gaming Inspection & Coordination Bureau (DICJ), Feb 24 GGR h...
Going into Feb 24, we expect daily GGR to rise further from Jan 24 (MOP624m) in view of a probable visitation surge during the CNY holidays, supported by the robust forward hotel bookings and free transportation offered to international visitors. The Macao Government Tourism Office expects a daily average of 120,000 visitors during the holiday, exceeding that of the National Day Golden Week (115,411). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK). Jan 24 GGR rose 4% mom. Accordi...
SC’s adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed slightly in 4Q23 on lower VIP win rates, but would have been the same as 4Q19’s 35.9% if we adjusted for luck, despite an about 79% recovery in 4Q23 GGR. Management expects further growth in base mass visitorship as transportation capacity recovers progressively. In our view, concerns over renovation work disruptions and increasing competition have been reflected in its share price. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$28.50. 4Q23 results below exp...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile: Weekly: 2024 as a year of pullback as evidenced by ytd data. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium. Renewable Energy: Solar: Awaiting catalyst for sustainable valuation recovery; the rise of N-type cell. Update Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.18/Target: HK$9.00): Margin pressure bigger than expected; downgrade from BUY to HOLD. Cut target price from HK$13.50 to HK$9.00. Li Auto (2015 HK/SELL/HK$113.20/Target: HK$100.00): Doub...
SC’s 3Q23 EBITDA of US$631m was 3-4% above our and the street’s expectations. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 35.3% in 3Q23, which could expand further and exceed 2019’s level as revenues and international flight capacity recover. The concert line-ups at The Venetian and The Londoner are expected to lift both properties’ visitations in 4Q23. Maintain BUY. Trim target price to HK$35.80. Results above expectations. Sands China’s (SC) 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA came in at US$631m (+10% qoq; ~84% of 3Q1...
We met with some long-only investors recently and their key focuses were on Golden Week performance, labour costs, and impact of non-gaming amenities (such as concerts). The market has concerns on the EBITDA recovery pace in 3Q23 given the increasing labour market competition in Macau, and we believe further share price retreats could be a good entry point for Galaxy and Sands China. Our top pick is Galaxy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
We expect mass GGR during the Golden Week holiday to surpass 2019’s level, given the new supply of casinos and higher contributions from premium players, despite visitation recovering to only 84% of 2019’s level. Share prices of the companies we cover have corrected by 11-15% since 1 Sep 23 (HSI: -5%). In our view, now is a good time to enter the sector, given the cheap valuation (9.9x 2024F EV/EBITDA). We prefer Galaxy for its premium-mass positioning and potential market share gains from the o...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
Both the MSCI China and HSI fell about 8.5% in August as the lack of significant stimulus announcements dampened market sentiment. The August earnings season also saw relatively conservative management guidance and emphasis on cost efficiencies and asset light strategies. Against this backdrop, we focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins; we add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com to our BUY list.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries like Baidu, COPH, CR Beer, CR Land, Ping An Insurance and Sands China to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Again, An Outperformance In Jul 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR, MAPI; short ADRO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Jul 23. Au...
The HSI rebounded more than 6% in July with the rollout of new policies to promote consumption and investment. The government recognises the need to restore economic confidence and that the demand and supply situation in the real estate market has changed. We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries such as Baidu
Sands China’s 2Q23 EBITDA of US$541m was largely in line with the street’s estimates. 2Q23 mass GGR was 85% of 2019’s level and that in Jun 23 accelerated to 97%. Although EBITDA margin in 2Q23 was still below pre-pandemic levels, we expect it to improve gradually as top-line rises with further uplifts in visitations. Maintain BUY and lift target price to HK$36.00.
MSCI China now trades at an undemanding 12-month forward PE of 10.2x, or a 37.0% discount to Emerging Asia. This steep discount is unwarranted and we expect valuation to normalise in 2H23, backed by additional policy support. However, a significant re-rating is only possible if credit growth accelerates; hence, our index target is at 74 points for now, implying 12.0x target PE. We prefer exposure to automobiles, consumer, industrial automation and online gaming. Steep discount unwarranted. We...
The industry’s mass GGR has largely recovered to 2019’s level during the holidays despite a lower visitation recovery, beating our and the street’s expectations. We believe the renewed concern on virus reinfection and consumption power is likely to drag nearterm share prices. Our top pick in Macau’s gaming sector is Sands China, as we expect the company to continue to gain market share in the remaining quarters with the return of group tours and the grand opening of the Londoner Macao on 25 May ...
Volatility could increase in May, as investors are also increasingly concerned about a possible slowing of the recovery in China, in addition to the rising Sino-US tensions. However, given the supportive macro policies, we expect downside to be limited and not skew towards defensives. Domestic consumption and travel-related names should outperform in the near term. Adding CATL, Inovance, Sands China and Tongcheng Travel to our BUY list.
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