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Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Macau Gaming: Apr 24 GGR down 5% mom; Downgrade To MARKET WEIGHT

Apr 24 GGR was in line with our estimate but 2% above consensus forecast. While we expect a GGR surge in the coming May Golden Week, we see margin pressures for companies under our coverage in the coming quarters, given higher marketing expenses and labour costs rising from the intensifying industry competition, and potential market share losses from the ongoing facility upgrades. Downgrade the sector to MARKET WEIGHT.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Sands China (1928 HK): 1Q24 -- Market share loss; facility upgrades to...

SC’s adjusted EBITDA missed the street’s estimates, impacted by its ongoing renovations and a lower hold rate. Management expects the renovations to continue to disrupt operations throughout the year, especially during the summer holidays. We foresee pressure on SC’s EBITDA margin due to its ongoing facility upgrades, the industry’s persistently intensive promotional activities, and uncertainty in China’s economic recovery. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$26.80.  1Q24 results belo...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Focus on four key theses for the sector.

In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Macau Gaming: Mar 24 GGR grew 6% mom; may Golden Week a potential cata...

The sequential uptick in Mar 24’s GGR, which surpassed our and the street’s estimates, implies a sustained and resilient gaming demand after the CNY holiday. Notably, this marks another milestone as the industry’s GGR peaked at MOP19.5b after the reopening, marginally above Oct 23’s level. We are confident on the industry’s growth momentum. May 24 Golden Week is a potential catalyst for the sector. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK).

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Macau Gaming: Feb 24 GGR declines 4% mom. OVERWEIGHT

Feb 24 GGR was below our and the street’s estimates despite the strong demand seen during the CNY holidays, likely due to volatility in win rates and post-holiday seasonal effects. Nevertheless, Macau is focusing on expanding its international markets, which we view positively as efforts to uplift casino and non-gaming revenues. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK).  Feb 24 GGR declined 4% mom. According to the Gaming Inspection & Coordination Bureau (DICJ), Feb 24 GGR h...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Macau Gaming: GGR up 4% mom in Jan 24; expect sustainable growth momen...

Going into Feb 24, we expect daily GGR to rise further from Jan 24 (MOP624m) in view of a probable visitation surge during the CNY holidays, supported by the robust forward hotel bookings and free transportation offered to international visitors. The Macao Government Tourism Office expects a daily average of 120,000 visitors during the holiday, exceeding that of the National Day Golden Week (115,411). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK).  Jan 24 GGR rose 4% mom. Accordi...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Sands China (1928 HK): 4Q23: EBITDA margin narrows slightly on lower V...

SC’s adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed slightly in 4Q23 on lower VIP win rates, but would have been the same as 4Q19’s 35.9% if we adjusted for luck, despite an about 79% recovery in 4Q23 GGR. Management expects further growth in base mass visitorship as transportation capacity recovers progressively. In our view, concerns over renovation work disruptions and increasing competition have been reflected in its share price. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$28.50.  4Q23 results below exp...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+7)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Ken Lee
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Friday, January 19, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile: Weekly: 2024 as a year of pullback as evidenced by ytd data. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium. Renewable Energy: Solar: Awaiting catalyst for sustainable valuation recovery; the rise of N-type cell. Update Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.18/Target: HK$9.00): Margin pressure bigger than expected; downgrade from BUY to HOLD. Cut target price from HK$13.50 to HK$9.00. Li Auto (2015 HK/SELL/HK$113.20/Target: HK$100.00): Doub...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Sands China (1928 HK): 3Q23: EBITDA 3-4% above estimates; concert line...

SC’s 3Q23 EBITDA of US$631m was 3-4% above our and the street’s expectations. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 35.3% in 3Q23, which could expand further and exceed 2019’s level as revenues and international flight capacity recover. The concert line-ups at The Venetian and The Londoner are expected to lift both properties’ visitations in 4Q23. Maintain BUY. Trim target price to HK$35.80.  Results above expectations. Sands China’s (SC) 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA came in at US$631m (+10% qoq; ~84% of 3Q1...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Macau Gaming: Marketing feedback: Be selective; eyes on cost managemen...

We met with some long-only investors recently and their key focuses were on Golden Week performance, labour costs, and impact of non-gaming amenities (such as concerts). The market has concerns on the EBITDA recovery pace in 3Q23 given the increasing labour market competition in Macau, and we believe further share price retreats could be a good entry point for Galaxy and Sands China. Our top pick is Galaxy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Macau Gaming: BUY on recent share price pullbacks. MARKET WEIGHT

We expect mass GGR during the Golden Week holiday to surpass 2019’s level, given the new supply of casinos and higher contributions from premium players, despite visitation recovering to only 84% of 2019’s level. Share prices of the companies we cover have corrected by 11-15% since 1 Sep 23 (HSI: -5%). In our view, now is a good time to enter the sector, given the cheap valuation (9.9x 2024F EV/EBITDA). We prefer Galaxy for its premium-mass positioning and potential market share gains from the o...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Good recovery by domestic tourism and catering during ...

During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...

Greater China Research Team ... (+6)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - September 2023

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MAPI MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
O39 MITRA ADIPERKASA
Y92 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
BN4 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BSDE KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
ADRO PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
601633 PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
601888 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS A
599A CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
PTTGC SANDS CHINA LTD.
ROTI PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
02669 NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
2318 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SE PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
YNS SEA ADS
PTTEP-R YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
HMSP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
VSI HM SAMPOERNA TBK PT
BAL V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
SMM BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
MYEG SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MINT MY EG SERVICES BHD
BURSA MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
CPALL TB BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
CPN-R CP ALL
GENM CENTRAL PATTANA PCL NVDR
MAHB GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
RATCH MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
2013 RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
6098 WEIMOB INC
HUME COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES
SCB-R HUME INDUSTRIES BHD
709 SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
HAPL GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
9988 HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
BEKE ALIBABA (9988 HK)
MRDIY KE HOLDINGS INC
KEX MR DIY GROUP M BHD
OR KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
1024 PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
TIDLOR KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 NGERN TID LOR PCL
BUKA BAIDU INC
2015 BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
CVL LI AUTO INC
9961 CIVMEC
BBNI TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
CLAS BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
SMGR CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
NATGATE SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
DELFI NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
LHN DELFI LTD
LHN LTD
Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy Alpha Picks: September conviction calls.

Both the MSCI China and HSI fell about 8.5% in August as the lack of significant stimulus announcements dampened market sentiment. The August earnings season also saw relatively conservative management guidance and emphasis on cost efficiencies and asset light strategies. Against this backdrop, we focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins; we add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com to our BUY list.

Greater China Research Team ... (+6)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - August 2023

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries like Baidu, COPH, CR Beer, CR Land, Ping An Insurance and Sands China to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Again, An Outperformance In Jul 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR, MAPI; short ADRO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Jul 23. Au...

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
601633 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
SE SEA ADS
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
PTTEP-R PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
HMSP HM SAMPOERNA TBK PT
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
CPALL TB CP ALL
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2013 WEIMOB INC
6098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES
SCB-R SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
KEX KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
9888 BAIDU INC
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
2015 LI AUTO INC
CVL CIVMEC
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
ADOOY PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
DELFI DELFI LTD
LHN LHN LTD
Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls

The HSI rebounded more than 6% in July with the rollout of new policies to promote consumption and investment. The government recognises the need to restore economic confidence and that the demand and supply situation in the real estate market has changed. We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries such as Baidu

Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Sands China (1928 HK): 2Q23 turned profitable; sequential mass recover...

Sands China’s 2Q23 EBITDA of US$541m was largely in line with the street’s estimates. 2Q23 mass GGR was 85% of 2019’s level and that in Jun 23 accelerated to 97%. Although EBITDA margin in 2Q23 was still below pre-pandemic levels, we expect it to improve gradually as top-line rises with further uplifts in visitations. Maintain BUY and lift target price to HK$36.00.

Greater China Research Team ... (+2)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

2H23 Market Strategy: Time for a booster?

MSCI China now trades at an undemanding 12-month forward PE of 10.2x, or a 37.0% discount to Emerging Asia. This steep discount is unwarranted and we expect valuation to normalise in 2H23, backed by additional policy support. However, a significant re-rating is only possible if credit growth accelerates; hence, our index target is at 74 points for now, implying 12.0x target PE. We prefer exposure to automobiles, consumer, industrial automation and online gaming.  Steep discount unwarranted. We...

AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
753 AIR CHINA LTD-H
670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CO-H
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES CO-H
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
9922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
Jo Yee Ng ... (+2)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Macau Gaming: Further GGR recovery on easing supply constraint. Our to...

The industry’s mass GGR has largely recovered to 2019’s level during the holidays despite a lower visitation recovery, beating our and the street’s expectations. We believe the renewed concern on virus reinfection and consumption power is likely to drag nearterm share prices. Our top pick in Macau’s gaming sector is Sands China, as we expect the company to continue to gain market share in the remaining quarters with the return of group tours and the grand opening of the Londoner Macao on 25 May ...

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

China Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls

Volatility could increase in May, as investors are also increasingly concerned about a possible slowing of the recovery in China, in addition to the rising Sino-US tensions. However, given the supportive macro policies, we expect downside to be limited and not skew towards defensives. Domestic consumption and travel-related names should outperform in the near term. Adding CATL, Inovance, Sands China and Tongcheng Travel to our BUY list.

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