Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Borregaard (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Q1 met expectations

The Q1 results were in line with expectations. While the BioSolutions segment beat our forecast due to higher volumes and prices, the Fine Chemicals segment saw lower deliveries than expected. We expect some of these volumes to revert and boost the Q2 result in Fine Chemicals. The BioMaterials segment was somewhat below our forecast, after a majority of the price negotiations for 2024 have been finalised. Demand appears to be rather strong for specialty cellulose and we thus see upside potential...

NOK winner, and a Q1 beat

Q1 EBITDA +3% above, higher volumes in '24. Potential for higher prices in '24: GP cut and pulp prices up. NOK winner: MTM EPS of NOK +12, long-term NOK +14.

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.

EBITDA 2% below on higher cost

Borregaard (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Improving conditions for chemicals

We expect Borregaard to report a Q1 EPS of NOK2.0 (results due at 7:00 CET on 24 April), mostly in line with Q1 2023. We estimate the largest YOY change this year to be the absence of a NOK30m–40m loss on synthetic vanillin trading in Q1 2023. However, we expect lower bio-vanillin prices to lead to a corresponding NOK30m–40m lower result this year. Also, somewhat higher wood costs should be largely offset by higher volumes. The most recent comments from Borregaard and its chemical peers have sug...

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally lowered our 2024-2026 estimates (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May), on the more impactful Red Sea disruptions and the company’s estimated USD5m–10m negative EBITDA effect from the Baltimore bridge collapse. We believe WAWI could further renew its contract portfolio at significantly higher levels and build earnings momentum for the years ahead. So far in 2024, the company has announced USD2.8bn of committed contracts (nearly USD1bn in annual revenues, or 19% of 2023, for the n...

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - 30% below 2025e EPS consensus

We expect aluminium prices to come down with falling global energy prices, and reiterate our SELL and NOK50 target price. We are 30% below consensus on 2025e EBITDA; we do not see large enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as suggested by the price appreciation in recent weeks, we believe. We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK6.2bn (results due at 7:00 CET on 24 April), driven by high hydropower production volumes in the quarter. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by ...

A brewing challenge for the yards

Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...