reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Towers - A Consistent Approach to EFCF and Shareholder Remun...
Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may vo...
Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos & Towers What to expect in 2025: FWA S-curve enables mo...
FWA will likely be the key themes of 2025 in Indian Telcos we think, with the market likely to be delivering 5m+ quarterly net adds by the end of the year. This is likely to drive renewed optimism towards Bharti and enable Jio to IPO. Given Jio’s valuation of approaching $200bn if it happens this is likely to be one of the biggest events in Global Telecoms this year. On rolling forward our DCF our Indus pt rises to INR 325 and we lift our recommendation to Neutral, and stay Buyers of both Bharti...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile VIL Capital Increase – should you participate and what ...
Sometimes the markets behave in ways that appear irrational. VIL having sufficient market cap to launch an INR 200bn ($2.4bn) capital increase despite (in our view) being a failing business is one example. But what does it mean for Bharti, Jio and Indus?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indus Towers (Neutral, pt INR 265, +18%) AMT sells Indian Towers - Im...
American Tower ("AMT") has agreed to sell its Indian Towers business, ATC India, to an affiliate of Brookfield Asset Management, with the deal expected to close in 2H 2024. The transaction values the Indian business at US$ 2 bn which implies a 5.6x EV/EBITDA, 17% above Indus’ trading multiple, but in line with our target multiple.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: Indian Mobile What to expect in 2023: Enterprise drives g...
Bharti has performed extremely well over the last 2 years. While we remain bullish, we think that some of the near term upside is priced in, especially on the consumer mobile side. We stay bullish long term but having had a good run into the end of the year, we expect the stock to take a breather in the near term.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Aliasgar Shakir
MOSL: INDUS TOWERS: Higher provisions impact profitability; receivabl...
INDUS TOWERS: Higher provisions impact profitability; receivables remain a key monitorable (INDUSTOW IN, Mkt Cap USD7b, CMP INR206, TP INR195, 6% Downside, Neutral) INDUSTOW saw an eventful 1QFY23, with a muted performance. Adjusted EBITDA fell 1% QoQ. It finally saw a MSA renewal, concluding with an annual escalation of 2.5%, but 9% exit allowance and an estimated 12-15% cut in rental, which could dilute earnings. The INR12.3b provision for doubtful debt and receivables of INR62b, of whic...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indus Towers (Buy, TP: INR265, +29%) Nearly pricing in VI...
Having downgraded Indus to Reduce only 4 months ago at over INR 300, and upgraded to Neutral at the start of the year, Vodafone dumping stock and the broader environment gives us the opportunity to further upgrade back to Buy at just over INR 200.
INDUS TOWERS sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a better fund...
The general evaluation of INDUS TOWERS (IN), a company active in the Integrated Telecommunications industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 2 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date January 14, 2022, the closi...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indian Mobile & Towers 2022 Outlook: Beyond Consumer Mobi...
After a very positive (and eventful) 2021, 2022 also looks set to be good for Bharti. While consumer mobile will re-accelerate as it laps the removal of interconnect and driven by the price increase at the end of 2021, we think strength in Africa, Enterprise and Broadband will become more apparent.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indus Towers - Nearly pricing in VIL recovery; cut to Redu...
With VIL rolling over and news articles suggesting outside investors are still reluctant to put new money into the failing operator, and with Indus having rallied by almost 50% we think it is time to exit the tower play, and downgrade to Reduce.
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