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Coca-Cola HBC AG: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of Coca-Cola HBC AG reflects its position as the leading bottler for TCCC and its steady profit and cash flow generation, against the company's exposure to emerging markets.

Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company AG: 2 directors

Two Directors at Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company AG sold after exercising options/sold 35,000 shares at between 2,820p and 2,820p. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary ...

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Solid execution priced-in; Turn to Hold

CCH eyes 7-12% organic EBIT growth in 2024e – CCH lifted its 2024 guidance which now calls for +7-12% organic EBIT growth (from +3-9% previously), effectively indicating adj. EBIT between €1,116m and €1,192m. Key components changed were mainly: 1) 8-12% organic top line growth (vs 6-7% prior) and 2) c€10-12m scope benefit from Finlandia acquisition. CCH maintained its forecasts for low-to-mid-single digits comparable COGS/case inflation and FX headwind at €30-50m. With current consensus being cl...

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Solid execution priced-in; Turn to Hold

CCH eyes 7-12% organic EBIT growth in 2024e – CCH lifted its 2024 guidance which now calls for +7-12% organic EBIT growth (from +3-9% previously), effectively indicating adj. EBIT between €1,116m and €1,192m. Key components changed were mainly: 1) 8-12% organic top line growth (vs 6-7% prior) and 2) c€10-12m scope benefit from Finlandia acquisition. CCH maintained its forecasts for low-to-mid-single digits comparable COGS/case inflation and FX headwind at €30-50m. With current consensus being cl...

Coca-Cola HBC AG: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its role as leading bottler for TCCC and strong credit metrics against its exposure to emerging markets that might lead to volatility in profit.

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Charting growth ahead through operational excelle...

Solid 2023 execution – CCH delivered a strong set of results, with 2023 numbers landing above the upper end of mgt guidance and consensus forecasts, thanks to solid operational execution. The company enjoyed stronger than anticipated operating leverage managing to expand adj. EBIT margins by 50bps (to 10.6%) despite the multiple challenges (affordability pressures, Nigeria cash crisis). This came as a result of the significant price/mix growth (+19pps yoy and c2pps above consensus) and healthy v...

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Charting growth ahead through operational excelle...

Solid 2023 execution – CCH delivered a strong set of results, with 2023 numbers landing above the upper end of mgt guidance and consensus forecasts, thanks to solid operational execution. The company enjoyed stronger than anticipated operating leverage managing to expand adj. EBIT margins by 50bps (to 10.6%) despite the multiple challenges (affordability pressures, Nigeria cash crisis). This came as a result of the significant price/mix growth (+19pps yoy and c2pps above consensus) and healthy v...

Coca-Cola HBC AG: Share buyback aligns with capital allocation plans d...

Share buyback will result in minor deterioration in the company’s credit metrics, which can be easily accommodated within the boundaries allowed by the rating

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Sweetening outlook; Raise to Buy

Rating: Buy from Hold Target Price: EUR 30.80 from EUR 28.50 Stellar H1’23 performance… – CCH delivered a strong H1, with organic EBIT +17.7% yoy at €561m, thanks to +18% growth in organic revenues. The company enjoyed stronger than anticipated operating leverage managing to expand adj. EBIT margins by 20bps (to 11.2%) despite the multiple challenges (affordability pressures, Nigeria cash crisis). This came as a result of the significant price/mix growth (+19pps yoy and c2pps above consensus) a...

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Sweetening outlook; Raise to Buy

Rating: Buy from Hold Target Price: EUR 30.80 from EUR 28.50 Stellar H1’23 performance… – CCH delivered a strong H1, with organic EBIT +17.7% yoy at €561m, thanks to +18% growth in organic revenues. The company enjoyed stronger than anticipated operating leverage managing to expand adj. EBIT margins by 20bps (to 11.2%) despite the multiple challenges (affordability pressures, Nigeria cash crisis). This came as a result of the significant price/mix growth (+19pps yoy and c2pps above consensus) a...

Coca-Cola HBC AG: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of Coca-Cola HBC AG reflects its strong brand portfolio and its position as one of the leading bottler of TCCC brands, against its exposure to volatility in emerging markets.

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Dynamic start lifts outlook

Very strong Q1’23 top line momentum instilling confidence on positive 2023e profit growth… – CCH recorded a strong Q1’23 top line performance delivering +16% organic sales growth, thanks to +21pps organic price mix only partly offset by a -4pps organic drop in volumes, as CCH was cycling tough comps in emerging (due to the downsizing of Russian operations) and developing markets. At the same time CCH had to contend with a tough economic landscape in Nigeria (cash crisis) and affordability pressu...

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Dynamic start lifts outlook

Very strong Q1’23 top line momentum instilling confidence on positive 2023e profit growth… – CCH recorded a strong Q1’23 top line performance delivering +16% organic sales growth, thanks to +21pps organic price mix only partly offset by a -4pps organic drop in volumes, as CCH was cycling tough comps in emerging (due to the downsizing of Russian operations) and developing markets. At the same time CCH had to contend with a tough economic landscape in Nigeria (cash crisis) and affordability pressu...

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Solid execution but look to 2024 for sparkle

Solid FY’22 execution – CCH recorded quite a solid performance in 2022 delivering +12% yoy growth in comparable EBIT vs c€700m envisaged by consensus at the onset of the war in Ukraine. The results were quite an achievement given the significance of Russian operations (c18% of EBIT pre Russia/Ukraine invasion downsized to

Natalia Svyriadi
  • Natalia Svyriadi

Coca-Cola Hellenic | Solid execution but look to 2024 for sparkle

Solid FY’22 execution – CCH recorded quite a solid performance in 2022 delivering +12% yoy growth in comparable EBIT vs c€700m envisaged by consensus at the onset of the war in Ukraine. The results were quite an achievement given the significance of Russian operations (c18% of EBIT pre Russia/Ukraine invasion downsized to

Andreas Souvleros ... (+5)
  • Andreas Souvleros
  • CFA
  • Natalia Svyriadi
  • Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...

2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...

Andreas Souvleros ... (+5)
  • Andreas Souvleros
  • CFA
  • Natalia Svyriadi
  • Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...

2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...

Alex Boulougouris ... (+4)
  • Alex Boulougouris
  • CFA
  • Fani Tzioukalia
  • Raffaella Tenconi

Greece: investment grade in the making

Greece posted a solid 2022, with another year of strong GDP recovery (+5%), stable politics and a positive performance for the benchmark ASE Index (+4%), despite the negative global backdrop. Looking into 2023E, the key tailwinds are a stronger local macro outlook, a potential upgrade to investment grade status, the possible return of dividends from the banking sector, and continued earnings upgrades from corporates. The key headwinds are the volatility that could be created during a prolonged e...

Natalia Svyriadi ... (+2)
  • Natalia Svyriadi
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

Greek consumer (G.RE.CO.) | Climbing a wall of worries

Industry bumps in 2022 – Greek consumer stocks are down c9% on average since the start of the war in Ukraine, weighed down by de-risking and rising uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook. Stocks more severely affected have been small caps/less liquid names, with OPAP and Jumbo standing out as outperformers thanks to solid operating momentum, more visibility around near-term earnings and – in OPAP’s case – a very compelling 2-digit dividend yield putting a cap on the downside risk. … with ...

Natalia Svyriadi ... (+2)
  • Natalia Svyriadi
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

Greek consumer (G.RE.CO.) | Climbing a wall of worries

Industry bumps in 2022 – Greek consumer stocks are down c9% on average since the start of the war in Ukraine, weighed down by de-risking and rising uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook. Stocks more severely affected have been small caps/less liquid names, with OPAP and Jumbo standing out as outperformers thanks to solid operating momentum, more visibility around near-term earnings and – in OPAP’s case – a very compelling 2-digit dividend yield putting a cap on the downside risk. … with ...

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