EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
HEADLINES: • GTC: launches a landmark bond refinancing with a 6.5% EUR 455m 2030 tranche POSITIVE • Zabka: key takeaways from the Investor Day POSITIVE • PCF Group: 2Q25 earnings call takeaways • CCC: final 2Q25 EBITDA 3% below the prelims, on an earlier recognition of costs NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: end-3Q25 card base at 2.38m, Türkiye accelerated in September NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: September capacity growth slower than the summer, but better load factor NEUTRAL • OTE/DIGI Communications: sale o...
HEADLINES: • Pepco: lfl recovery continued in 4Q25, with Poland falling behind W. Europe; another EUR 50m buyback announced POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 earnings slightly lower than expected - adj. EBITDA +7% yoy to EUR 165m NEGATIVE • Theon International: wins another sizeable OCCAR contract POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • Eurowag: TA Associates completes GBP 56m ABB • PZU: new acting CEO appointed, pending PFSA approval NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: proposes an extraordinary DPS of RO...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Czech Republic - strong fundamentals anchor politics • mBank: Capital Markets Day - key takeaways POSITIVE • Murapol: 2Q25 results above expectations, strong OCF and new offer slowdown POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB on a protracted pause • Energy: Kirkuk pipeline set for restart POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 results preview (due out today, after the close) • Short News (ROE1L)
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: growth acceleration priced in already (downgraded to HOLD) • GTC: moves to amend terms of the two outstanding Forint bonds • OTE/DIGI Communications: Telekom Romania sold to DIGI and Vodafone for EUR 70m POSITIVE • EMEA Airlines: flights cancelled in Europe over weekend due to cyberattack on airport software • Wizz Air: strike on 26 September may disrupt operations in Italy NEGATIVE • Huuuge Games: earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Titan: Fidelity Investments cuts ownership...
Double digit H1’25 profitability growth… – Sarantis group grew H1’25 EBIT by 18% yoy to €38m, despite the soft +1% top line growth (€304m), as a result of the strong mix improvement and the cost initiatives. Net profit increased by 20% to €29m. Importantly, the group’s export activity grew significantly in H1’25, with sales from exports rising to c€18m (+52% yoy) and exports’ EBIT more than doubling to c€7m, mainly reflecting the strong rollout of the group’s suncare products in the U.S market. ...
Double digit H1’25 profitability growth… – Sarantis group grew H1’25 EBIT by 18% yoy to €38m, despite the soft +1% top line growth (€304m), as a result of the strong mix improvement and the cost initiatives. Net profit increased by 20% to €29m. Importantly, the group’s export activity grew significantly in H1’25, with sales from exports rising to c€18m (+52% yoy) and exports’ EBIT more than doubling to c€7m, mainly reflecting the strong rollout of the group’s suncare products in the U.S market. ...
HEADLINES: • Sarantis: 1H25 in line with expectations; profit guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: 1H25 earnings beat on one-offs; broadly in line on an underlying basis POSITIVE • Footshop: 2Q25 broadly in line with our estimates; 2025E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • PGE: 2Q25 results fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • Enea: 2Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: August sales growth decelerates to 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Georgia Capital: announces early redemption of USD 100m ...
HEADLINES: • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1H25 EBITDA -6% yoy, hit by one-offs NEUTRAL • Enea: full 2Q25 results in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • CCC: CEO finds back-to-school sales strong, maintains FY25E guidance, considering buyback POSITIVE • Tofas: details of new LCV model (K9) announced POSITIVE • Sarantis: 1H25E preview – 14% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due out today, after the close) NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: 1H25E results preview (due out tomorrow) • VIGO Photonics: 2Q25E results preview – 76...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 2Q25 below expectations, due to weak France NEGATIVE • Diagnostyka: 2Q25 results slightly above expectations, but down qoq NEUTRAL • Eurowag: 2Q25 results – beat on the top line, EBITDA a small miss NEUTRAL • CEZ: ANO’s campaign platform calling for 100% nationalisation NEUTRAL • GTC: 2Q25 – bond refinancing critical • Jumbo: sales growth momentum intact in August, +8% in 8M25; tightens grip on opex POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 2Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL ...
HEADLINES: • Greek Refiners: elevated margins, extended run (HELLENiQ Energy (HOLD) and Motor Oil Hellas (BUY) - transfer of coverage) • Asseco Poland: 2Q25 review – net profit up 33% yoy, 11% above the consensus; 2025 backlog up 9% yoy POSITIVE • OPAP: 2Q25 results – in line NEUTRAL • Trade Estates: 1H25 – FFO at EUR 10m, up 37% yoy POSITIVE • Vercom: key takeaways from the 2Q25 earnings call POSITIVE • cyber_Folks/Shoper: key takeaways from the 2Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Shoper: 2Q25 earning...
Q2 in line with c4-5% growth yoy, DPS €0.50 (EEe €0.60) – Q2’25 has settled broadly in sync with our expectations, with revenue and EBITDA growth decelerating to 5%/4% from c8% in Q2, owing to tough comps. With Joker having risen €18m yoy thanks to the jackpot rollovers (accounting for c2.4% group quarterly growth alone), we estimate other numerical games were -6% (cannibalized by Joker). Betting also turned negative at -2% from +13% in Q1 (tough comps), but this was more than offset by online c...
Q2 in line with c4-5% growth yoy, DPS €0.50 (EEe €0.60) – Q2’25 has settled broadly in sync with our expectations, with revenue and EBITDA growth decelerating to 5%/4% from c8% in Q2, owing to tough comps. With Joker having risen €18m yoy thanks to the jackpot rollovers (accounting for c2.4% group quarterly growth alone), we estimate other numerical games were -6% (cannibalized by Joker). Betting also turned negative at -2% from +13% in Q1 (tough comps), but this was more than offset by online c...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 2Q25 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA guidance broadly maintained; domestic market recovery in 3Q POSITIVE • GTC: 2Q25 – bond refinancing critical • AROBS Transilvania Software: 2Q25 – trending up, despite continuing headwind from automotive vertical • Romania macro: fiscal consolidation effort moves forward, but politics remain jittery • Türkiye macro: 2Q GDP momentum points to a stronger 2025E outlook • Greek banks: commit an additional donation of EUR 75m each to s...
EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...
Solid H1’25 performance, in broad sync with expectations – CCH delivered a solid H1’25 performance, with comparable EBIT up 15% yoy (12% organic) despite continued macro and geopolitical headwinds. The result was driven by 2-digit organic growth in Emerging Markets, with all segments contributing to revenue growth, supported by strong pricing discipline and favorable mix effects (both pack and category). While higher A&P spend weighed on profitability in Established and Developing markets, gross...
Solid H1’25 performance, in broad sync with expectations – CCH delivered a solid H1’25 performance, with comparable EBIT up 15% yoy (12% organic) despite continued macro and geopolitical headwinds. The result was driven by 2-digit organic growth in Emerging Markets, with all segments contributing to revenue growth, supported by strong pricing discipline and favorable mix effects (both pack and category). While higher A&P spend weighed on profitability in Established and Developing markets, gross...
The catalyst – Q2’25 results on 3rd Sep look poised to be a positive catalyst: although the numbers are not likely to impress (EE revenues/EBITDA +4% yoy, DPS €0.65) and mgt may abstain from raising the guidance, commentary on the Q3 outlook is likely to be upbeat, as indicated by latest data. This is because of another series of record jackpot rollovers, which have brought Q3 (to-date) Joker GGR >€40m yoy. This means that contrary to market expectations – which envisaged a c€25-30m headwind due...
The catalyst – Q2’25 results on 3rd Sep look poised to be a positive catalyst: although the numbers are not likely to impress (EE revenues/EBITDA +4% yoy, DPS €0.65) and mgt may abstain from raising the guidance, commentary on the Q3 outlook is likely to be upbeat, as indicated by latest data. This is because of another series of record jackpot rollovers, which have brought Q3 (to-date) Joker GGR >€40m yoy. This means that contrary to market expectations – which envisaged a c€25-30m headwind due...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: strong 2Q25 delivery reaffirms our FY25E net profit forecast of c. PLN 7bn, still ahead of the market consensus NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 2Q25 results review – EBITDA up 13% yoy, 3% above the consensus; 2025E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Akcansa: weak 2Q25 financial results, with signs of recovery NEGATIVE • Teknosa: 2Q25 results – recovery in the operating performance overshadowed by losses on the bottom line NEUTRAL • Brisa: 2Q25 results in line, very much like 1Q25 NE...
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