On the right track again

Profitability is on the rise. More to come when utilisation improves. Reiterate BUY, new TP of SEK 85 (80).

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 6,311,250 shares at 860.020DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Dorian LPG (Hold, TP: USD43.00) - Solid outlook, but fair valuation

Solid US fundamentals with inventories c14% above the 5-year average have kept rates above USD50k/day, and with an outlook for a slowdown in VLGC deliveries, we see strong earnings potential for 2024. Hence, we see upside potential to the USD1.0 ‘irregular’ quarterly DPS and calculate a c14% run-rate earnings yield for the next four quarters on today’s FFAs and 1-year TC rates. Despite a solid market outlook, we find the valuation fair at a P/NAV of 1.15x. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised o...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - European tablet growth shifts gear

Last night, ahead of time, ALK-Abello published its Q1 results and increased its FY top-line guidance on much stronger than expected European tablet sales growth of c28% (consensus c15%). At the same time, the company announced a cost-cutting programme in connection with its ongoing strategic review, which should help it reach its c25% EBIT margin target by 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK165 (145).

Strong Q3 numbers

Weak April ACT doesn't change H2 improvement scenario

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise

Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.40) - Q1 misses on EBIT and KPIs

EBIT of EUR-8m was below our estimate and Vara consensus, and unit sales missed too. The inventory of unsold completed homes for sale continued to increase. The company states it will continue to focus on its capital releases, with sale of its stake in the Tripla shopping mall and reducing unsold inventory as the major moving parts. However, YIT’s markets are weak and its debt remains elevated. We reiterate our SELL and EUR1.4 target price, while we believe new equity might be also needed.

Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK145, +14%) Q1 24: Good numbers, impressive FCF g...

Telenor has reported a good set of Q1 numbers, with SR and EBITDA c1% ahead, and FCF 49% ahead. FY24 guidance has not been lifted (but has been reiterated) despite the good Q1 numbers, with phasing of payments/items to impact FCF throughout the rest of the year, and this is perhaps a little disappointing, but momentum is clearly with Telenor at present, and if current trends persist, then guidance and estimates will move up.

EBITDA-capex 3% above, strong FCF

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

HMS Networks AB: 1 director

A director at HMS Networks AB bought 625 shares at 400.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Europris ASA: 1 director

A director at Europris ASA bought 7,232 shares at 68.704NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added

We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.