reports
- Team AKD Research
EFERT - 3QCY23 Analyst Briefing Takeaways, (AKD Off the Analyst's Desk...
EFERT - 3QCY23 Analyst Briefing Takeaways EFERT just held its corporate briefing session to discuss the 3QCY23 results. To recall, the company posted a consolidated PAT of PkR9.6bn/PkR15.0bn (EPS: PkR7.17/sh/PkR11.27/sh) for the 3QCY23/9MCY23. Above expectation result came on the back of growth in the topline owing to high retention prices and better margins due to unchanged gas cost for the period. An interim dividend of PkR6.0/sh was paid out for the outgoing quarter, taking total 9MCY23 div...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizer: April 2023 - Lower FFC offtake reduced industry v...
* Urea offtake in April 2023 reduced by 11% YoY and 17% MoM to c.408,000 tons. The MoM decline in volumes is due to off-season impact. The market share of EFERT and FFBL increased by 4/2 ppt YoY basis to 38%/9%, while the market share of FFC reduced by 7ppt YoY to 33%, amidst self-imposed measures to pause volumes due to price disparity. * During the month, Urea ex-factory price remained unchanged at PKR2,895/bag- this is the price where almost all companies were selling Urea except FFC...
- Rahul Hans
Engro Fertilizers: 1QCY23 Review - Earnings miss on higher-than-expect...
EFERT has posted consolidated NPAT of PKR4.4bn for 1QCY23 (EPS: PKR3.30), down 31% QoQ and 20% YoY. The result has come in lower than our expected EPS of PKR4.11, with higher COGS amid inventory losses on imported fertilizer leading to the deviation, in our view. EFERT also announced an interim cash dividend of PK3.50/sh – below our expectation of PKR4.10/sh. Key highlights from 1QCY23 result: * Net Sales have increased by 19% YoY but are down 5% QoQ to PKR44.0bn, higher than our expected to...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizer- 1QCY23 Result Previews
HIGHER GAS PRICES AND EXPENSES WILL REDUCE PROFITS IMS Fertilizer Universe earnings are estimated to reduce by 23% QoQ to PKR12.7bn due to increased gas prices, lower Urea and DAP offtake and exchange losses particularly for FFBL. Industry Urea/DAP offtake is estimated to clock in at 1.62/0.26mn tons in 1QCY23, vs. 1.63/0.25mn tons in 1QCY22. Urea offtake declined amid lower production from EFERT and FFC due to plant breakdown and non-availability of RLNG based plants, while DAP volumes redu...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizer: Feb'23 Sales volume update
Urea offtake in February 2023 reduced by 5% YoY and 20% MoM to c.503,000 tons. The MoM decline in volumes is due to off-season impact. The market share of EFERT increased by 5ppt YoY basis to 37% in Feb’23, while the market share of FFBL reduced by 2ppt YoY to 5%, following higher Urea prices amid increased gas prices of SSGC network. During the month, FFBL increased Urea ex-factory prices by PKR440/bag to PKR2,975 on the back of increase in gas prices for SSGC and SNGPL network, while other ...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizer: January 2023 Sales update
JAN'23 - NORMALIZED VOLUMES DESPITE PRICE HIKE ANTICIPATION * Urea offtake in January 2023 increased by 6% YoY, but was down 24% MoM to c.631,000 tons. The MoM decline in volumes is due to a high base effect and off-season in the initial month of the year. The market share of FFBL/FFC/EFERT shrunk by 5/4/1ppt on YoY basis to 1%/34%/34% in Jan’23. The reduction in market share is primarily due to higher offtake from NMFL (imported fertilizer), which satisfied 22% of the total demand in Januar...
- Rahul Hans
Engro Fertilizers: 4QCY22 Review - Earnings beat on tax reversal; impr...
EFERT has posted consolidated NPAT of PKR6.4bn for 4QCY22 (EPS: PKR4.80), up 53%QoQ and 4%YoY. The result has come in much higher than our expected EPS of PKR3.43. A tax reversal during the quarter lead to the deviation. This takes CY22 earnings to PKR16.0bn (EPS: PKR11.98), down 24%YoY. EFERT also announced final cash dividend of PKR5.00/sh – above our expectation of PKR3.50/sh – this takes total DPS in CY22 to PKR13.50. Key highlights from 4QCY22 result: * Net Sales have increased by 16%Yo...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizer: Dec 2022 Sales update
STRONG UREA SALES IN DEC TAKES CY22 VOLUMES TO ALL-TIME HIGH Urea offtake in December 2022 increased by 43% MoM and 39% YoY to c.833,000 tons. The increase in offtake was due to anticipation of an increase in Urea prices and relatively strong demand amid higher commodity prices. CY22 Urea offtake thus has surged to all-time high of 6.62mn tons, up 4% YoY. The market share of EFERT/FFC shrunk by 7/2ppt to 29%/37% in CY22; whereas, FATIMA/AGL share increased by 3/2ppt to 17%/5%. FFBL’s market ...
- Rahul Hans
Fertilizer: Nov’22: Urea offtake up despite production challenges
According to NFDC, Urea sales in Nov’22 witnessed a recovery in sales, increasing by 2% YoY to c.583,000 tons (the slump in Oct’22 was 16% YoY). Sequentially, Urea offtake recovered by 36% MoM owing to i) higher contribution being generated from FATIMA, and ii) seasonality factor. Urea offtake for 11MCY22 stands at c.5.8mn tons, similar to last year, where offtake of AGL and FATIMA rose by 76% and 28% YoY, while that of Fauji group and EFERT declined by 2%/19%, respectively. We remain Overwei...
- Rahul Hans
Engro Fertilizers: 3QCY22 Review - Lower-than-expected margins lead to...
EFERT posted consolidated net profit of PKR4.2bn for 3QCY22 (EPS: PKR3.13), down from a NPAT of PKR4.4bn (EPS: PKR3.30) in 3QCY21. The result came in lower than our expected EPS of PKR3.61, largely owed to lower than expected gross margins. EFERT paid interim cash dividend of PKR3.0/sh as compared to our assumption of PKR3.5/sh. Key highlights of 3QCY22: * Despite a massive decline in Urea/DAP offtake by 27%/50% YoY, net sales have reduced by a mere 4%/7% YoY/QoQ to PKR35.7bn. This is due to...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizers - 3QCY22 Result Previews
PROFITS TO SURGE SEQUENTIALLY AMID NORMALIZED TAX RATE * Despite the sequential decline in fertilizer volumes owing to floods and short-lived plant breakdowns of EFERT and FFC, IMS Fertilizer Universe earnings are estimated to increase by a sharp 3.4x QoQ to PKR17.8bn due to lower tax rate, elevated fertilizer prices and strong interest income. * Industry Urea/DAP offtake is estimated to clock in at 1.52/0.14mn tons in 3QCY22, down 13%/77% YoY, owing to floods, and high DAP prices in ca...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Fertilizers: Normalised production led to Urea recovery in Au...
According to NFDC, Urea sales in Aug’22 witnessed a slight recovery in sales, although down 15% compared to last year to c.552,000 tons (slump in Jul’22 was 26%). Sequentially, urea offtake recovered owing to i) normalised production post-breakdown of both FFC and EFERT in Jul’22, and ii) seasonality factor. The urea demand for 8MCY22 now stands at 4.3mn tons, against 4.2mn tons last year, where offtake of FATIMA rose by 31%, while that of Fauji group and EFERT declined by 1%/16%, respectivel...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Fertilizers: July – Ongoing floods to keep fertilizer demand ...
According to NFDC, Urea sales in Jul’22 witnessed the largest slump since Dec’21, down 26% YoY to c.463,000 tons, largely owed to i) Eid holidays, ii) monsoon season, and iii) plant breakdown of both FFC (Mirpur Mathelo) and EFERT (Enven). The urea demand for 7MCY22 now stands at 3.7mn tons, against 3.5mn tons last year, where offtake of FATIMA and Fauji group rose 35%/4% YoY, while that of EFERT declined by 16% YoY. We remain Overweight on the sector owed to handsome payout and sustainable e...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Engro Fertilizers: 2QCY22 Review: Negative earnings from supertax in 2...
EFERT posted consolidated net loss of PKR98mn for 2QCY22 (LPS: PKR0.07), for the first time since CY13, down from a NPAT of PKR4.8bn (EPS: PKR3.57) last year. This is against our expected EPS of PKR1.27, largely owed to significantly large taxation charge due to budgetary measures and higher other expenses. EFERT skipped out on dividend payout this quarter due to lack of positive earnings. The company also conducted an analyst briefing post-result announcement KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 2QCY22: * Net...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Fertilizers: Jun’22 - Preemptive demand from price hike antic...
Urea offtake jumped 47% MoM in Jun’22 to 736k tons as preemptive demand growth surfaced in anticipation of urea price hike. Earlier in Jun’22, government reduced urea prices whilst ensuring resolution of liquidity issues, especially the PKR80bn receivables pertaining to sales tax and subsidies. The urea demand for 1HCY22 now stands at 3.2mn tons against 2.9mn tons last year, where offtake of Fauji Group (FFC and FFBL) rose c.15% YoY and EFERT decreased c.5% YoY. We remain Overweight on the fe...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Fertilizers: 2Q22 previews – earnings to falter from budgetar...
* IMS Fertilizer Universe earnings are estimated to decline by a sharp 30% YoY to PKR11.5bn owing to the imposition of supertax and poverty alleviation tax in Budget FY23. Excluding these, NPAT would have been up c.45% YoY. * Industry Urea/DAP offtake is estimated to clock in at c.1.54/0.29mn tons in 2QCY22, up c.5%/50% over the last year. Higher DAP sales are mainly attributable to low base effect amid massive offtake in 1QCY21. * Sequentially, combined net profit of our Fertilize...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Fertilizer: May 2022 – Sales Volume Update
INVENTORY LEVELS HAS STARTED TO PILE-UP AMID LOW OFFTAKE AND IMPORTS Urea offtake in May 2022 decreased by 9% mom and 17% yoy to 417,521 tons. The yoy decrease in offtake is likely due to higher Urea prices and higher base effect in SPLY. On a cumulative basis, in 5MCY22, Urea offtake increased by 14% yoy to 2.51mn tons. The sales volumes of FFC decreased by a mere 2% yoy, while that of EFERT and FFBL decreased by 24%/35% yoy, respectively. Urea ex-factory prices had reached PKR1,930-1,980/b...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Fertilizers: April 2022 – DAP offtake surge in April
Urea offtake in April 2022 decreased by 10% mom, while increasing 48% yoy to 458,952 tons. The yoy increase is led by better farm economics and low base in SPLY. On a cumulative basis, in 4MCY22, Urea offtake increased by 23% yoy to 2.09mn tons. The sales volumes of FFC and EFERT increased by 44%/43% yoy, whereas that of FFBL declined by 9% yoy. Urea ex-factory prices had reached PKR1,880-1,980/bag in April 2022. The premium in the local market remained unchanged as well, hovering around PKR2...
Engro Fertilizer Ltd: 1 director
A director at Engro Fertilizer Ltd sold 1,663,894 shares at 87.870PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Fertilizer_Mar'22 urea offtake rise 48%YoY,
AKD Daily Pakistan Fertilizer: Mar'22 urea offtake rise 48%YoY As per NFDC, Mar’22 urea offtake for the industry clocked in at 509k MT, up 48.3%YoY but contracting 3.4%MoM on account of maintaining additional buffer for upcoming months in case of unforeseen circumstances. Company wise, FATIMA recorded sales of ~63k MT (+130%YoY/-4.3%MoM), followed by EFERT (~171k MT, +81%YoY/+0.5%MoM) and FFC (~168k MT, +16%YoY/-8.6%MoM) while sales of FFBL declined 15.2%YoY but increased by 12%MoM. DAP ...
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