reports
- Clément Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: H2 outlook pointing to slower recovery in Polish vol...
Following an ok-ish Q2 print (below css/slightly ahead of SFe on Biedronka LfL) and a cautious outlook for Biedronka LfL over H2, we foresee a slower recovery in Polish volumes. Buy reiterated with a €25 PT vs. €26 previously as we continue to see a rerating path from c.17x to >20x 12m fwd P/E,
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- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: RBW PW; EBS AV; JMT PL; EUROB GA; ETE GA; OPTIMA GA; TITC ...
HEADLINES: • Rainbow Tours: on the road to riches (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Erste Bank: 2Q25 results beat on positive one-off; solid performance in core result leads to 2025E guidance uplift POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: minor beat in 2Q25; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q25 highlights – a clean 14% beat vs. our estimate POSITIVE • National Bank of Greece: 2Q25 highlights – in line, with guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Optima Bank SA: bottom-line beat in 2Q25...
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- Roy Külter
- Thomas Zlowodzki
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- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: RO Macro; HU Macro; KRU PW; HUG PW; CAR PW; 11B PW; MUR PW...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: MPC turns cautiously dovish on the fiscal package • Hungary macro: June inflation picks up further • Kruk: 2Q25 trading update shows a pick up in recoveries vs. 1Q25 NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: preliminary 2Q25 revenue at USD 59m, down 7% yoy and 6% qoq NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: June sales growth at 10% yoy, implying 2Q25E revenue growth of also 10% yoy NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: 280k copies of The Alters sold NEUTRAL • Murapol: sells 708 apartments and hands over 289 units in...
- Clément Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: Q2 to reinforce recovery momentum and rerating case
Ahead of H1 2025 earnings on 1st August, we have lifted our Q2 2025E sales forecasts to 8.1% o/w 4.5% LfL excluding calendar and more globally our FY25-27 EPS estimates by 2% to reflect a stronger LfL recovery in Poland (fuelled by food inflation and an easing in the price war) and better margin de
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: EME indices mostly in the green in...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
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4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
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- Research Team
WOOD Daily: Polish Food Retail – DNP PW; EUR PW; JMT PL; ZAB PW; BFT P...
HEADLINES: • Polish food retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY, Eurocash and Jeronimo stay BUY, Dino stays SELL) • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 adjusted EBIT up 14% yoy, 10% above our forecast POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with our forecast, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, 2% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NE...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
OMV OMV AG
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
ZAB ZABKA GROUP
- Lukasz Wachelko
- CFA
- Maria Mickiewicz
Polish Food Retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY...
We believe that, after the price war-impacted 2024 and the seasonally-challenged 1Q25, Polish grocers should enjoy Easter-supported demand and a leap in the VAT hike in 2Q25E. In our view, the Polish consumer has matured, following the tough experience of the pandemic, and the inflation bubble that followed. With a propensity to consume no longer close to 100%, we see the rollout-led growth as more tangible than pure lfl expansion. Within the high-growth names, we prefer Żabka (initiation with a...
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: trade war lifted multiples, beware of future sector rotat...
European food retail enjoyed a paradoxical 1.5x P/E expansion vs. deteriorating earnings trend YTD now turning negative, fuelled by a sector rotation with investors looking for defensive stocks. With trade wars easing, we have reviewed the valuation, earnings momentum and sector indicators for each
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: rerating not over yet with better margin prospects
Following a strong Q1, we see several positive signs around a price war easing in Poland and have increased our Polish EBITDA and our PT from EUR21 to EUR25. In line with our January 2025 upgrade to Buy, we continue to see a rerating path to >20x P/E, which is the normalised level in no Polish c
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- Thomas Zlowodzki
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
ZIL2 ELRINGKLINGER AG
LXS LANXESS AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
INH INDUS HOLDING AG
KRN KRONES AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
SAX STROEER SE & CO. KGAA
BPOST BPOST SA
BRNL BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
SSO SCATEC ASA
NVG NAVIGATOR COMPANY SA
RENE REDES ENERGETICAS NACIONAIS SA
ROVI LABORATORIOS FARMACEUTICOS ROVI S.A.
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
FACC FACC AG
WLN WORLDLINE SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NKT NKT A/S
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
MRX MISTER SPEX SE
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- Thomas Zlowodzki
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
ZIL2 ELRINGKLINGER AG
LXS LANXESS AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
INH INDUS HOLDING AG
KRN KRONES AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
SAX STROEER SE & CO. KGAA
BPOST BPOST SA
BRNL BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
SSO SCATEC ASA
NVG NAVIGATOR COMPANY SA
RENE REDES ENERGETICAS NACIONAIS SA
ROVI LABORATORIOS FARMACEUTICOS ROVI S.A.
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
FACC FACC AG
WLN WORLDLINE SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NKT NKT A/S
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
MRX MISTER SPEX SE
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
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