reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact, and we continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EM (EEM-US) remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively. Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure. The Nikkei 225 displays a 2-month base breakout, and the TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes are on the cusp of 3-month breakouts to multi-decade highs. This signals a continuation of the uptren...
- Jin Yoon
Tencent: Key Metrics from Weixin Open Class Pro 2024
What’s New: Tencent held a closed-door Weixin Open Class Pro event this year. We highlight some of the key metrics shared from segments including video accounts and mini games. We also updated our online game revenue estimates for 4Q23. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Tencent: Updates on Online Game Measures and Other Business Segments
What’s New: We maintain our 4Q23 estimates as overall business could remain largely intact. In this note, we discuss key updates including near-term outlook for segments including games, ads, and business services. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Softening tone from regulatory authority on online gam...
On 25 Dec 23, NPPA issued the 11th batch of domestic Banhao with 105 approvals, higher than previous monthly batches’ average of 85. We see a softening tone from NPPA’s draft on online game policy restrictions on 23 Dec 23. However, the execution and impact of the new regulations are yet to be tracked. We are cautiously optimistic on the online game sector’s growth in 2024 with the changes in the regulatory environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong pipeline in 2024; ample monetisation opportunit...
We expect resilient online games sector growth going into 2024, in view of a strong game grossing performance in 3Q23, solid game pipeline with multiple popular genres in 2024 as well as continuously favourable regulatory environment. We foresee ample monetisation opportunities from mini games and AIGC application. NetEase is our top pick given its strong position in the party games genre and margin improvement due to payment channel migration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, December 07, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong pipeline in 2024; ample monetisation opportunities from party games. Shipping And Ports: Near-term outlook still subdued; trade volume likely to see a moderate pick-up in 2024. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$6.42). INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,140/Target: Rp2,500): Fixed broadband subscriber numbers might surge 385% from the migration of LINK’s customers. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM4.41...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
GAM GAMUDA BHD
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
9999 HK NETEASE INC
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 3Q23 Results: Upside in Margins Amid Shift to High Quality Rev...
What’s new: Tencent’s reported 3Q23 revs were largely in line, while margins were above consensus and our expectations. Margins could see further upside amid shift to high-quality revenue growth model, and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD450. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Tencent Holdings (700 HK): 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful ma...
Tencent’s 3Q23 results are in line with our expectations. Revenue grew 10.4% yoy to Rmb154.6b, in line with consensus estimates. Gross margin expanded 5.2ppt yoy to 49.5%, better than consensus forecasts. Non-GAAP operating profit surged 35.6% yoy, and non-GAAP OPM expanded 6.7ppt yoy to 35.9%, beating our estimates. Non-IFRS net profit increased 39.3% yoy, 12.4% above consensus forecasts, given a positive revenue mix shift. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of HK$425.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Thursday, November 16, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Stronger retail sales in Oct 23, but FAI stays weak. Initiate Coverage Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$13.04/Target: HK$17.68) Leading developer and TOD mall operator in China’s Tier 1 and 2 cities. Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$105.90/Target: HK$186.00) 3Q23: Tempered top-line growth; 4Q23 outlook to be anchored by resilient 11.11 performance. Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$322.60/Target: HK$425.00) 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful ...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 3Q23 results preview: Solid e-commerce ad growth to dr...
We expect e-commerce ads and overseas e-commerce expansion to be the main driving forces spurring stagnant growth in 3Q23 and beyond. In addition, we are optimistic about the better-the-expected growth in game gross profit and on-track OTA data on the back of strong seasonality. We are also looking out for meaningful progress in AIGC development in 3Q23 and better visibility in 4Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
9618 JD.COM INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
9999 HK NETEASE INC
780 TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LTD
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Solid domestic game grossing growth in summer; expect ...
China’s online games market is expected to deliver an encouraging momentum in 3Q23, as reflected by the resilient growth in mobile grossing amid continuous favourable industry development. We opine there are monetisation opportunities for mini-games and AIGC, which will become growth catalysts for the online games market. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 3Q23 Preview: Estimates Remain Intact
What’s New: We maintain our 3Q23 estimates as overall business could remain largely intact. In this note, we discuss key updates including near-term outlook for segments including games, social network, ads, fintech and business services. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- MarketLine Department
China State Shipbuilding Corp Ltd - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finan...
Summary China State Shipbuilding Corp Ltd - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights China State Shipbuilding Corp Ltd (CSSCL) is a manufacturer of shipboard equipment and a provider of shipbuilding services covering both naval and civil, ship-repair, and mar...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong growth in online ads and OTA likely to continue...
China’s internet sector delivered solid 2Q23 results with an earnings beat but this was followed by lukewarm 3Q23 guidance from most companies navigating macro uncertainty. In view of the intense competition and saturated growth, internet companies are ramping up AIGC investment and cross border expansion against a favourable regulatory backdrop. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector due to heavy investment in new initiatives leading to margin erosion.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
9618 JD.COM INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
9999 HK NETEASE INC
780 TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LTD
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Upgraded LLMs launched amid positive regulatory develo...
China saw the emergence of 130 LLMs as of end-Aug 23, surpassing the US and positioning it at the forefront of LLM development. AI-related guidelines incorporate enhanced government support and feature less stringent content accuracy requirements as the sector is being leveraged to stimulate economic growth, leading to a robust post-pandemic recovery. We remain optimistic in view of the initial regulatory approvals granted to 11 LLM products. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 2Q23 Results: Domestic Games to Resume Growth in 3Q
What's new: Tencent’s reported 2Q23 top-line results were below consensus and our expectations. Domestic games could return to growth in 3Q partly driven by new game launches and sequential improvement in legacy titles. We maintain our PT at HKD450. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Tencent Holdings (700 HK): 2Q23: Robust ad growth momentum offsets tem...
Tencent’s 2Q23 results are slightly below our expectations. Revenue grew 11.3% yoy to Rmb149.2b, 2% below consensus estimates. Gross margin expanded 2ppt yoy to 45.5%, better than the street’s expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit surged 36.7% yoy, and non-GAAP OPM expanded 6ppt yoy to 33.6%, better than our estimates. Non- IFRS net profit increased 33.4% yoy, 4% above consensus estimates, given a positive revenue mix shift. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower target price of HK$433.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Terence Chiu
Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 17, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Aviation Airlines: Operating data of three major airlines improved further in Jul 23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT as we believe the recovery has been priced in. Top pick: Air China. Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$299.60/Target: HK$380.00) 1H23: Historically high NII and derivative ADV boost earnings. JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$140.60/Target: HK$199.00) 2Q23: Strong earnings beat; 3Q outlook to be the market focus. Nexteer (1316 HK/SELL/HK$5.20/Target: HK$2...
- Greater China Research Team
China Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls
The HSI rebounded more than 6% in July with the rollout of new policies to promote consumption and investment. The government recognises the need to restore economic confidence and that the demand and supply situation in the real estate market has changed. We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries such as Baidu
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
9888 BAIDU INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Riding on the favourable industry trend. MARKET WEIGHT
China’s online game market was on a meaningful recovery trajectory in 1H23, benefitting from a favourable industry backdrop. We expect the recovery momentum in game revenue to accelerate in 2H23, given the heavy monetisation potential of its game pipeline. Rapid AIGC development will lift efficiency in producing high-quality games. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Overview of NPPA’s new game approvals in 1H23. The National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) approved 89 and 86 domestic games i...
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