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Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

LUCK - FY23 Analyst Briefing Takeaways, (AKD Off the Analyst's Desk Au...

Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss its FY23 results and provide insights into the company's future outlook. To recall, company posted earnings of PkR43.8/sh in FY23, compared to PkR48.8/sh in the previous year (down 10%YoY). This decline in earnings is majorly attributable to lower dividends from subsidiaries and higher financial charges. Throughout the full year, the company reported local sales of 6.2mn tons, marking a 15%YoY decrease, while the loc...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Lucky Cement: 3QFY23 Review - Resilient core profits despite sluggish ...

Lucky Cement (LUCK) has posted an unconsolidated NPAT of PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR12.78) for 3QFY23, up 22% QoQ, but down 28% YoY. Earnings came in line with our projected EPS of PKR12.99. On a consolidated basis, LUCK has reported very strong net profits of PKR30.2bn (EPS: PKR67.11 in 3QFY23), up 2.8 YoY, much higher than our expected EPS of PKR37.92. The deviation is due to a one-off revaluation gain booked by LCI on remaining stake of NutriCo Morinaga and strong growth coming from the chemical bu...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Maple Leaf Cement: 3QFY23 Review - Earnings decline on higher expenses...

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) has posted 3QFY23 unconsolidated NPAT of PKR1.5bn (EPS: PKR1.40), down 36% QoQ but up 57% YoY, slightly lower than our expected EPS of PKR1.54. Lower-than-expected GMs and elevated distribution expenses explain the deviation. This result takes 9MFY23 net profits to PKR5.1bn (EPS: 4.71), up 41% YoY. On a consolidated basis, MLCF has posted NPAT of PKR1.9bn (EPS: PKR1.75) in 3QFY23, lower than our expected net profit of PKR2.3bn (EPS: PKR2.12). KEY HIGHLIGHTS FOR 3QFY23...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pakistan Cements: 3QFY23 Result Previews

BETTER PRICES AND MARGINS TO EXPAND PROFITABILITY IMS Cement Universe profitability is expected to increase by 9% QoQ and 50% YoY to PKR22.5bn in 3QFY23, mainly driven by margins expansion amid higher retention prices. LUCK may book one-off capital gain on its subsidiary LCI’s partial divestment of NutriCo Morinaga. The sector’s gross margins are expected to increase by 1.6ppt QoQ / 3.1ppt YoY to 27% in 3QFY23. Higher increase in cement prices relative to the increase in taxes and energy pric...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Maple Leaf Cement: 2QFY23 Review - Impressive margins and lower financ...

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) has posted 2QFY23 unconsolidated NPAT of PKR2.3bn (EPS: PKR2.19), much higher than our expected EPS of PKR1.29. Improvement in margins due to cheaper cost of coal, higher-than-expected topline and lower finance cost led to the deviation. This result takes 1HFY23 net profits to PKR3.6bn (EPS: 3.31), up 48% YoY. On a consolidated basis, MLCF has posted 2QFY23 NPAT of PKR2.9bn (EPS: PKR2.73) up 56% YoY, higher than our expected net profit of PKR1.9bn (EPS: PKR1.78). KEY ...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Lucky Cement: 2QFY23 Review - Core profits declined on higher COGS

Lucky Cement (LUCK) has posted an unconsolidated NPAT of PKR3.3bn (EPS: PKR10.13) for 2QFY23, up 32% YoY, but down 15% QoQ. Earnings came in lower than our projected EPS of PKR11.31. Higher realized coal and energy prices pushed COGS above our projections. On a consolidated basis, LUCK has reported very strong net profits of PKR11.4bn (EPS: PKR32.51), up 62% YoY, much higher than our expected EPS of PKR19.26. This is due to earlier-than-expected operations of LEPCL post teething issues, and h...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pakistan Cement – Better prices and offtake to expand profitability

IMS Cement Universe cumulative profitability is expected to increase by 5% QoQ and 15% YoY to PKR15.2bn in 2QFY23, driven by demand resumption post floods and monsoon season. However, sector gross margins are expected to slip by 3ppt QoQ / 1ppt YoY to 24% in 2QFY23. The anticipated reduction in gross margins is due to the increase in inflation, as well as coal and other energy prices during 2QFY23. During the quarter, the IMS Cement cluster underperformed the KSE-100 by 10.1ppt. This may be d...

MLCF_Analyst Briefing Takeaways, (AKD Off the Analyst's Desk Nov 24, 2...

MLCF: Analyst Briefing Takeaways Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd organized its analyst briefing today to discuss FY22 results and company’s future outlook To recall, MLCF posted PAT of PkR12.27bn (EPS: PkR3.3), down 42%YoY. Company GMs remained strong at 25% during the outgoing year vs. 21% in FY21. Company’s coal mix is comprised of 70% Local (Darra) coal, 25% Afghan Coal and 5% alternative fuels. Average coal prices for the quarter were as follows: Afghan coal PkR47k/ton, local coal PkR30k...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Lucky Cement: 1QFY23 Review - Core performance remains strong

Lucky Cement (LUCK) has posted an unconsolidated NPAT of PKR3.8bn (EPS: PKR11.91) for 1QFY23, up 17% YoY but down 3% QoQ. Earnings have come in higher than our projected EPS of PKR9.88. Major deviation stemmed from higher-than-expected GMs and other income amid dividend received from LMCL. On a consolidated basis, LUCK has reported net profits of PKR5.4bn (EPS: PKR16.85), down 18% YoY. The earnings in 1QFY23 have come in lower-than our expected EPS of PKR20.69. Lower contribution from the aut...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Maple Leaf Cement: 1QFY23 Review - Strong margins drive earnings beat

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) posted 1QFY23 unconsolidated NPAT of PKR1.2bn (EPS: PKR1.13), more than twice our expectation of PKR0.6bn (EPS: PKR0.52). Higher-than-expected margins explain the deviation. On a consolidated basis, MLCF has posted NPAT of PKR1.4bn (EPS: PKR1.28), higher than our expectation of PKR1.1bn (EPS: PKR0.99). The stock is up 2% as we write. Going by MLCF’s result, we expect other cement companies to also show strong margin improvement. KEY OBSERVATIONS * Despite the steep d...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

1QFY23 Previews - Profitability to remain firm despite sluggish demand

* IMS Cement Universe’s cumulative profitability is expected to increase by 4% QoQ to PKR12.7bn in 1QFY23. However, it is expected to decline by 1% YoY. * Sector gross margins are expected to slump by 4ppt YoY / 5ppt QoQ to 22% in 1QFY23. The reduction in gross margins is due to the drop in cement offtake by 23% YoY / 21% QoQ to 9.6mn tons and elevated coal prices (sea-based and from Afghanistan). * During the quarter, the IMS Cement cluster outperformed the KSE-100 by c.10ppt. Rea...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pakistan Cements: Sep’22 - Cement dispatches continue to rebound

According to recent APCMA print, total montly cement dispatches have clocked in at 4.27mn tons representing an increase of 30% compared to Aug’22, but have reduced by 7% from Sep’21. Local cement sales came in at 3.8mn tons up 31% MoM (down 5.4% YoY), whereas exports have jumped by 22% MoM to 0.47mn tons (down 17% YoY). Demand which was initially hampered by the heavy monsoon spell and floods, has started picking up and will continue to rise in 2QFY23 amid increase in construction activity an...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Maple Leaf Cement: 4QFY22 Review - Margins came in line, but higher ET...

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) posted 4QFY22 unconsolidated NPAT of PKR35mn (EPS: PKR0.03), much lower than our expectation of PKR0.54/share. Higher-than-expected taxation explains the deviation. This result takes FY22 net profits to PKR3.6bn (EPS: PKR3.30), down 42% YoY. On a consolidated basis, MLCF has posted a NPAT of PKR232bn (EPS: PKR0.21), lower than our expectation of PKR1.06bn (EPS: PKR0.96). This takes FY22 NPAT to PKR4.5bn (EPS: PKR4.15) up 19% YoY. KEY OBSERVATIONS * Net sales have inc...

Lucky Cement Ltd: 1 director

A director at Lucky Cement Ltd bought 10,000 shares at 470.000PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Lucky Cement: 4QFY22 review – Higher-than-expected margins lead to ear...

Lucky Cement (LUCK) has posted an unconsolidated NPAT of PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR12.34) for 4QFY22, down 28% QoQ. This takes FY22 NPAT to PKR15.3bn (EPS: (PKR47.31) up 9% YoY. The result has come in much higher than our projected EPS of PKR6.50. Major deviation stemmed from higher-than-expected GMs and reversal in other expenses. On a consolidated basis, LUCK has reported net profits of PKR8.8bn (EPS: PKR27.15), up 90% YoY. The earnings in 4QFY22 have come higher than our expected EPS of PKR18.52. ...

Rahul Hans
  • Rahul Hans

Pakistan Cement: 4QFY22 preview – Higher tax and interest will chop ea...

IMS Cement Universe cumulative profitability are expected to decline sharply by 29% QoQ to PKR10.3bn in 4QFY22. However, it is expected to increase by 4% YoY. Despite elevated coal prices (imported and Afghani) and reduced total dispatches, sector gross margin is likely to increase by 1.1ppt to 25% in 4Q. However, 10% one-off super tax will reduce earnings on a QoQ basis. During the quarter, IMS Cement cluster declined by 26%, underperforming KSE-100 by c.18.5ppt. Reasons behind this were i) ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Low volumes witnessed, (AKD Technical Daily Jun 13, 2022)

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Low volumes witnessed The index opened on a slightly positive note and faced a bullish session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 340pts and concluded with a gain of 279pts to settle at 42,015pts level. The volumes witnessed in the last trading session were lower than the previous trading session. The Index is currently trading below minor moving averages on daily chart. Daily parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is currently appearing below the current le...

Pakistan Cement_Cement dispatches decline by 16%YoY for May'22, (AKD D...

AKD Daily Pakistan Cement:Cement dispatches decline by 16%YoY for May’22 Local cement dispatches posted a negative growth for May’22, declining by 6/16% YoY/MoM. Though region-wise North and South, witnessed the opposite trend where local dispatches in North declined by 5.1/8.21% YoY/MoM to 2.57mn tons while dispatches in South (due to low base effect) increased by 18/2% YoY/MoM to 0.58mn tons. Overall, local cement dispatches for 11MFY22 stand at 42.7mn tons, down 1.6%YoY while exports h...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100 Closes with a positive bias, (AKD Technical Daily Jun 07, 2022...

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100 Closes with a positive bias The index opened on a negative note and faced a volatile session. The local bourse posted an intraday low of 284pts, a high of 361pts and concluded with a gain of 262pts to settle at 41,577pts level. The volumes witnessed in the last trading session were lighter than the previous trading session. The MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. It crossed below its signal line one trading session ago. The chart formatio...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Declines amidst low volumes, (AKD Technical Daily Jun 02, 2022...

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Declines amidst low volumes The index opened on a slightly negative note and remained volatile throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 71pts, a low of 359pts and concluded with a loss of 322pts to settle at 42,756pts level. The volumes witnessed in the last trading session were lower than the previous trading session.  The local bourse is currently 5.1% below its 200-period moving average on daily chart. Bollinger Bands w...

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