reports
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns
Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
E&P spending sensitivity explored
With an oil price at the mid-USD60s/bbl level, focus on the oil major overspending situation, and resulting impact on the outlook for offshore-focused oil services, is set to increase further. While oil companies would likely cut, or even eliminate, buyback programmes first, we expect increased focus on spending reductions and efficiencies, creating a more challenging business environment for oil services. Hence, we see a risk of oil companies taking a more cautious approach, resulting in projec...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
In a mid-cycle plateau
Following recent updates from E&P companies, we have reduced our 2025 offshore spending estimate to 0.5% (from c3% earlier this year). This is driven by a combination of actual 2024 spending being higher than expected (8% versus 4% previously), creating tougher comparables and a reduction in spending plans from Pemex in 2025. Despite growth flattening out, we still see the cycle building in duration, with execution of deepwater developments remaining on the agenda, albeit with a delayed executio...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Offshore spending plateauing
After reviewing major oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c3% YOY in 2025 (down from c5% late last year and c8% six months ago). We believe a combination of supply-chain bottlenecks, efficiency gains, and capital discipline among oil companies are the main reasons for spending growth fading, resulting in a mid-cycle plateau. On the flip side, the cycle keeps building duration, as we see investments being pushed into 2026–2027. Also, activity levels ...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Slow start to 2025 for offshore, but cycle duration highlighted
SLB said on its recent Q4 earnings call that it expects flat global upstream spending YOY in 2025, while Halliburton guided for flat group revenue. Both expect offshore activity to improve as the year progresses, based on numerous FIDs late-2025 and into 2026 – but implying a slow start to the year. These comments mirror feedback we have had from industry sources, although we are already seeing offshore drilling campaigns slipping towards the end of 2026, or even into 2027. Hence, their comments...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
ExxonMobil update highlights efficiency, no incremental demand for oil...
From an oil services perspective, we consider the key takeaway from ExxonMobil’s corporate update to be continued high and improving capital efficiency, allowing it to do “more with less”. By 2030e, it plans to increase production by c1m barrels per day to 5.4m barrels per day on largely flat upstream capex compared to 2023–2024 levels. This implies further efficiency improvement, which we consider on the downside for the oil services industry as it implies no need for incremental service capaci...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle
Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resu...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras rig pool tender saw limited competition and likely supportiv...
Today, the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender for up to four deepwater rigs with 3-year duration across three lots closed. Initially, it appears that seven contractors with nine rigs participated, split between four locals (Constellation, Etesco, Foresea and Ventura) and three international contractors (Seadrill, Valaris and Transocean). Hence, the participation would be less than at the recent Petrobras tender for Sepia/Atapu, which saw nine contractors taking part with 15 rigs. With different technic...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras set to reduce 2025 capex
Petrobras is expected to reduce 2025 capex from USD21bn to around USD17bn, according to a Reuters article today. Petrobras has a 5-year capex plan, but there are usually changes to its plans, and “current year” / “near-term” spending has a track-record of being revised lower (2024 capex was recently cut c24% to USD13.5bn–14.5bn), as Petrobras has struggled with value-chain delays. The updated spending represents YOY growth in 2025 of c21% (versus c50% earlier). The article mentions equipment pri...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Limited excitement for oil services from TotalEnergies’ Strategy & Out...
With total capex set to be flattish through this decade (organic capex lower in the out-years), TotalEnergies’ Strategy & Outlook presentation provided limited excitement for oil services. Strong capital discipline and allocation was maintained, with targeted oil production growth (3%) on flattish capex and shareholder returns being a top priority. With several large-scale developments for the next few years already defined (oil services mostly contracted), we consider its plan supportive for cy...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras deepwater awards at decent dayrates
Following a lengthy tender process, Constellation announced it has been awarded contracts for two rigs for the Roncador development with Petrobras for 2.5 years starting in mid-2025. One of the awards is for a stranded newbuild (Tidal Action), while the second award is for an incumbent 2012-built 6G drillship (Laguna Star). With current uncertainty among investors related to deepwater, we consider the dayrate levels (around USD450k) solid, in particular for the incumbent 6G rig. For companies u...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Supply-side discipline remains key
With uncertainty among investors due to flattish near-term deepwater demand and increasing availability of tier-2 deepwater rigs, we highlight that supply-side discipline has been a key driver this upcycle. As the industry is even more consolidated, we expect the high-end of the deepwater market to remain strong while lower-end units are likely to face greater day-rate volatility. We still see value chain bottlenecks (FPSO, subsea) unfolding, effectively putting a cap on drilling demand, as expl...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
ADES building international footprint
ADES announced it has acquired two working premium jackups from Vantage Drilling for USD190m (Soehanah USD85m, Topaz Driller USD105m). Both are on long-term contracts in Southeast Asia, marking a strategic move for ADES in further increasing its presence in the region. Compared to consensus, we find the transaction metrics accretive on asset values and earnings multiples. For international drillers in our coverage, Borr Drilling is trading at USD138m per rig (has a more modern fleet of premium j...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras deepwater tenders progressing
Over the next weeks and months, we expect to see more news flow related to Petrobras’ deepwater tenders, as bids on Sepia and Atapu (3-rigs) closed late last week, the Roncador tender (2-rigs) is believed to be nearing conclusion and the rig pool (4-rigs) tender is scheduled to take bids late this month. Although outside rigs are seen participating, we believe rigs already in Brazil are likely to secure most of the jobs. As there currently is some investor uncertainty related to the deepwater ma...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Tier-2 deepwater risk in process of being reflected
As we flagged in an update in May, the risk of idle time or even stacking of tier-2 deepwater rigs was previously likely not reflected in consensus, leaving potential for negative revisions. Although our estimates remain (well) below consensus, we believe investors and valuations now reflect the uncertainty for tier-2 deepwater rigs to a greater extent. As for the investment case for offshore drillers, we continue to believe focus on cycle duration and earnings in the out-years (2026+) is key.
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