reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
ASML: best positioned for 2026 in the Semicap pack. Upgrade to Buy, €7...
Consensus expects ASML to grow revenues 2% next year, compared to 6-12% for its peers. That is conservative. If anything, we see room for ASML to outperform, driven by high leading-edge exposure. Beyond 2026, we also expect ASML to grow in the upper end of its peer group. Normal order intake in 3Q would allow management to ease concerns around 2026 growth, and with the stock trading on 25x forward earnings we see limited risk of further de-rating. We hence upgrade the stock to Buy, €790 Target...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Deep dive into Chinese Semicap: How much of a headwind for Western pla...
Chinese WFE spending quadrupled in five years to $41bn, driven by aggressive local deployments, while domestic vendors rapidly gained traction, capturing 13% of local spending already, mostly in deposition, etch, and CMP. In this deep dive, we assess the competitiveness of key Chinese vendors, including Naura, AMEC, and SiCarrier. We estimate first the pace (and the scope) at (and on) which they could close the gap with their western peers. On that basis we estimate the share they can gain ov...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25 – Semicap: Not everyone can gain market share.
Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were down 7% QoQ, with Chinese spending declining 17% sequentially after two years of elevated demand. Vendors maintain their view of slight WFE spending growth, with memory and...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & Memory: the baseline & what’s next.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up with targeted deep dives across our coverage. This note follows recent ones we published on Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel & AMD, TSMC, and Semicap. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & Semicap equipment: the baseline & what’s next.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on semicap equipment with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD/Intel. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 3Q24
We publish today our comprehensive Quarterly Bible: 238 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
TSLA TESLA INC
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
NOAA NOKIA TRADEGATE EXCHANGE
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
AMD ASML HOLDING NV
AAPL ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
MSFT APPLE INC.
AVGO MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SOH1 BROADCOM INC.
BESI SOITEC
UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ERIC.B ERICSSON
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
ERICB EU GRABTAXI HOLDINGS PTE LTD
0967655D WOLFSPEED INC
WOLF GRAB HLDGS LTD
GRAB ARM HOLDINGS PLC
Moody's Ratings announces completion of a periodic review of ratings o...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of KLA Corporation and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 13 December 2024 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context o...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q24 – Semicap: 2025 expectations are too high
Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, and Foundry. Semicap equipment revenues were up...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
NXPIN NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV
WOR WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES INC.
VC VISTEON CORPORATION
VALE.N VALE S.A. ADS
TXT TEXTRON INC.
TKR TIMKEN COMPANY
SEDG SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
QCOM QUALCOMM INC
NSIT INSIGHT ENTERPRISES INC.
MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC.
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED
LEA LEAR CORPORATION
HXL HEXCEL CORPORATION
GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION
ENS ENERSYS
CDW CDW CORP.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
SWKS SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC.
DOO BRP INC.
ACLS AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ENTG ENTEGRIS INC.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
BHP BHP GROUP
JELD JELD-WEN HOLDING INC.
APTV APTIV PLC
AMKR AMKOR TECHNOLOGY INC.
ADNT ADIENT PLC
STM STABILUS SE
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
XOS ELECTRAMECCANICA VEHS CORP
NABL N ABLE INC
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