reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
DAI DAIMLER AG
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
TER TERADYNE INC.
STX SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY PLC
MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC.
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
GLW CORNING INC
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
EQIX EQUINIX INC.
CTSH COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION CLASS A
AVT AVNET INC.
ARW ARROW ELECTRONICS INC.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
MELE MELEXIS NV
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
UMCB UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP (ADR)
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
VOW VOLKSWAGEN (VOW GR)
CKP CHECKPOINT SYSTEMS INC
NET CLOUDFLARE INC CLASS A
CADE CADENCE BANK
TEAM ATLASSIAN CORPORATION
CLS CELESTICA INC.
5930 SAMSUNG GROUP
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...
Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
AMD ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
AVGO ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOH1 ASML
BESI BROADCOM INC.
SOITEC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicap and the $3tn AI bull-case: material upside, but well below the...
We published earlier this week our updated view on the Semicap rally, looking at the implication of AI spending tripling by 2030 for WFE spending. Today, we publish a follow-up looking at the implications of the $3tn AI bull case for Semicap on a single slide.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Does the Semicap rally have legs? Downgrading ASML to Neutral
The outlook for AI spending has strengthened in recent months, driving a rally in Semicap stocks. Our forecast embeds AI capex tripling by 2030, requiring ~$130bn of cumulative WFE spending, but driven by the first-order derivative of AI deployments, i.e. peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year; a trajectory in expectations already and resulting in a weak outlook beyond 2026. With near-term uncertainty, limited upside to 2026 forecasts, and valuations 2–12 turns above historic ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Semicap: Cautious view justified; expectations at risk fo...
Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, PCs, Enterprise IT and Foundry. 2Q25 semicap revenues up 2% QoQ, 2% above consensus. China up 19% after a 17% decline in 1Q, with manufac...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
ASML: best positioned for 2026 in the Semicap pack. Upgrade to Buy, €7...
Consensus expects ASML to grow revenues 2% next year, compared to 6-12% for its peers. That is conservative. If anything, we see room for ASML to outperform, driven by high leading-edge exposure. Beyond 2026, we also expect ASML to grow in the upper end of its peer group. Normal order intake in 3Q would allow management to ease concerns around 2026 growth, and with the stock trading on 25x forward earnings we see limited risk of further de-rating. We hence upgrade the stock to Buy, €790 Target...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Deep dive into Chinese Semicap: How much of a headwind for Western pla...
Chinese WFE spending quadrupled in five years to $41bn, driven by aggressive local deployments, while domestic vendors rapidly gained traction, capturing 13% of local spending already, mostly in deposition, etch, and CMP. In this deep dive, we assess the competitiveness of key Chinese vendors, including Naura, AMEC, and SiCarrier. We estimate first the pace (and the scope) at (and on) which they could close the gap with their western peers. On that basis we estimate the share they can gain ov...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25 – Semicap: Not everyone can gain market share.
Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were down 7% QoQ, with Chinese spending declining 17% sequentially after two years of elevated demand. Vendors maintain their view of slight WFE spending growth, with memory and...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & Memory: the baseline & what’s next.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up with targeted deep dives across our coverage. This note follows recent ones we published on Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel & AMD, TSMC, and Semicap. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & Semicap equipment: the baseline & what’s next.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on semicap equipment with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD/Intel. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
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