reports
- Dan Salmon
The Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $31 target) New Tinder MAU headwind, H...
What’s New: Yesterday, we met with CEO Spencer Rascoff to discuss his broader strategy for turning around MTCH. The highlights included: 1. New Tinder MAU headwind in India, but with goal of better male-female balance 2. Monetization team not the focus of early moves at Tinder 3. HER acquisition will be followed by more; BMBL would be hard, not off the table
Snap Inc: 3 directors
Three Directors at Snap Inc sold after exercising options/sold 243,139 shares at between 8.542USD and 8.595USD. The significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the compa...
- Dan Salmon
Match Group Inc: 1 director
A director at Match Group Inc bought 70,885 shares at 28.049USD and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- Dan Salmon
The Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $31 target) A battle between short-ter...
What’s New: We felt the most important issues from today's results were: 1. Resetting the long-term cost structure after a 13% RIF and 20% fewer managers 2. No big surprises in payer/revenue trends: Tinder ALC weakening, as expected 3. Capital return above 100% of FCF target and we think possible for 2025 full year
- Dan Salmon
US Internet: What we know (and don’t know) about China/de minimis adve...
On Monday, we analyzed GOOGL and META’s potential exposure to China-based advertisers HERE, and discussed META’s exposure more HERE. Last night, SNAP cited weakness from advertisers impacted by changes to the de mimimus exemption as one example of the macro uncertainty that led it to pull 2Q25 guidance (see HERE for full takeaways). Led by Temu and Shein, there is likely high overlap between China-based retailers and those impacted by de minimis exemption changes.
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Buy, $16 target) 4Q24 Model Update (Buy, target lower...
Our target declines to $16 from $17 owing to lower estimates, partially offset by a higher valuation owing to growing long-term revenue potential after SNAP’s advertiser base doubled in 2024, while Snapchat+ continues to layer in a more predictable subscription revenue stream.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $34 target) First Take: BK out as 1Q25 gui...
What's New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. BK out, Spencer Rascoff in as Tinder turnaround remains stagnant 2. Tinder MAU trends stable but still negative (Hinge was up 20% however) 3. 1Q25 revenue/AOI guidance below consensus, look for heavier Tinder marketing
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Buy, $17 target) Two Very Important Things Doubled in...
What's New: In this first take following tonight's results, we focus on: 1. Upside potential grows as advertiser count and Snapchat+ subs both double in 2024 2. DR/Brand trends right in-line with expectations, helped a little by TikTok, and new ad load 3. Very careful rollout of simplified Snapchat progressing, likely takes all of 2025 to complete
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $34 target) Downgrade to Neutral on lower...
We are lowering our rating on MTCH to Neutral from Buy following last week’s Investor Day. Our model now reflects management’s detailed guidance, resulting in lower estimates, and we also lower our target valuation, leading to new target of $34 vs $48 previously.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $52 target) 3Q24 Model Update
We continue to see a positive risk-reward for the stock, anchored by strong margins and FCF generation, with share buybacks protecting downside ~$30 and the potential for strategic alternatives to unlock value if Tinder cannot grow MAUs and payers consistently.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $54 target) MTCH First Take: Positioning for a...
What's New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Tinder a la carte (ALC) rollout delayed, clouding outlook for the flagship app 2. Tinder MAU trends under more pressure since mid-Sept: back to school hangover? 3. Are new segment profit disclosures a precursor to “exploring strategic alternatives?” 4. What does all of this imply for the Investor Day? And the CFO transition? 5. What to do with the stock
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $54 target) Quick Thoughts Ahead of the Print
Ahead of Wednesday’s PM’s earnings report and Thursday’s AM’s call, we review what to look for in the shareholder letter, listen for on the call, our top questions for management, potential positive and negative catalysts, and key debates, controversies, and popular topics of late, specifically: 1. Can Tinder payers return to year-over-year growth in 4Q24? 2. If so, how much payer growth is being driven by ALC only buyers vs subscribers? 3. Details on the refreshed a la carte offering 4. How lon...
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Buy, $17 target) First Take: Direct Response still hu...
What's New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Solid, not yet spectacular advertising trends, with DR and advertiser growth leading 2. Very careful rollout of Simple Snapchat progressing 3. Very early days for Promoted Places and Sponsored Snaps
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Buy, raising target to $17 from $16) Adding Sponsore...
We are adding estimates for Sponsored Snaps (in the Chat inbox) and Promoted Places (on the Snap Map) to our model, while also reducing our estimates for Discover ads, as that surface is de-emphasized in the new Simple Snapchat. We also raise our Spotlight estimates slightly
- Dan Salmon
Advertising Week Takeaways 2H Ad Trends, CTV Pricing, GOOGL, META, AM...
We had the opportunity to catch up with over a dozen industry contacts and check in on close to 20 panels over the past four days of NYC Advertising Week. In the note, we walk through the top takeaways from our conversations including 2H24 advertising trends, the latest in CTV ad market pricing/supply trends, and views on the potential outcome of the DOJ versus GOOGL Ad Tech case. We also have specific stock takeaways for GOOGL, META, AMZN, TTD, SNAP, PINS, and RDDT.
- Blair Levin
- Dan Salmon
TikTok/Google Litigation Expert Call Recap: Timelines, Remedies, and w...
Last week, we hosted an expert call about the latest proceedings in the U.S. TikTok ban litigation and Google’s ad tech antitrust case. We also reviewed where Google’s search case sits as the remedies phase gets underway and an appeal from Google is expected soon.
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