reports
Snap Inc: 1 director
A director at Snap Inc sold 1,259,900 shares at 8.000USD and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...
Match Group Inc: 1 director
A director at Match Group Inc bought 14,000 shares at 31.835USD and the significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Neutral, $8 target) Revenue growth in-line, and Perpl...
What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Stock pops on improved results and surprise Perplexity deal 2. DR recovers & continued enthusiasm for SMBs, but large advertisers down 3. North America DAUs steady but we remain cautious as age verification rolls out 4. Perplexity boosts the AI narrative 5. Very good cost control and margins
- Dan Salmon
The Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $31 target) A show-me story with gree...
Nothing in this print was thesis-changing or moved our numbers materially, as management continues to set the groundwork for product improvements in trust, security, and recommendations ahead of a large product launch in spring 2026, and an expected “resurgence” in 2026 and 2027, particularly at Tinder.
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Neutral, $8 target) Downgrade to Neutral on lower DR...
We are downgrading SNAP to Neutral from Buy and our target declines to $8 from $11. Direct Response Ad Business Evolving: Our prior Buy thesis was anchored by SNAP’s improved direct response ad offering and was helped by growth of its small advertiser base over the past year-plus. However, DR ad growth faded to +5% in 2Q25 from mid-teens, and our channel checks remain mixed.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
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- Dan Salmon
The Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $31 target) Progress continues under n...
In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Tinder MAUs are still declining year over year but improving 2. $50M reinvestment in 2H25 to power product tests, marketing, geo expansion, new bets 3. Tinder Double Date seeing early traction particularly with under 30s 4. Hinge keeps humming 5. Margins impacted by one-time issues, but remain solid 6. Capital return remains robust
- Dan Salmon
The Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $31 target) New Tinder MAU headwind, H...
What’s New: Yesterday, we met with CEO Spencer Rascoff to discuss his broader strategy for turning around MTCH. The highlights included: 1. New Tinder MAU headwind in India, but with goal of better male-female balance 2. Monetization team not the focus of early moves at Tinder 3. HER acquisition will be followed by more; BMBL would be hard, not off the table
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
The Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $31 target) A battle between short-ter...
What’s New: We felt the most important issues from today's results were: 1. Resetting the long-term cost structure after a 13% RIF and 20% fewer managers 2. No big surprises in payer/revenue trends: Tinder ALC weakening, as expected 3. Capital return above 100% of FCF target and we think possible for 2025 full year
- Dan Salmon
US Internet: What we know (and don’t know) about China/de minimis adve...
On Monday, we analyzed GOOGL and META’s potential exposure to China-based advertisers HERE, and discussed META’s exposure more HERE. Last night, SNAP cited weakness from advertisers impacted by changes to the de mimimus exemption as one example of the macro uncertainty that led it to pull 2Q25 guidance (see HERE for full takeaways). Led by Temu and Shein, there is likely high overlap between China-based retailers and those impacted by de minimis exemption changes.
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Buy, $16 target) 4Q24 Model Update (Buy, target lower...
Our target declines to $16 from $17 owing to lower estimates, partially offset by a higher valuation owing to growing long-term revenue potential after SNAP’s advertiser base doubled in 2024, while Snapchat+ continues to layer in a more predictable subscription revenue stream.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $34 target) First Take: BK out as 1Q25 gui...
What's New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. BK out, Spencer Rascoff in as Tinder turnaround remains stagnant 2. Tinder MAU trends stable but still negative (Hinge was up 20% however) 3. 1Q25 revenue/AOI guidance below consensus, look for heavier Tinder marketing
- Dan Salmon
Snap Inc. (SNAP, Buy, $17 target) Two Very Important Things Doubled in...
What's New: In this first take following tonight's results, we focus on: 1. Upside potential grows as advertiser count and Snapchat+ subs both double in 2024 2. DR/Brand trends right in-line with expectations, helped a little by TikTok, and new ad load 3. Very careful rollout of simplified Snapchat progressing, likely takes all of 2025 to complete
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $34 target) Downgrade to Neutral on lower...
We are lowering our rating on MTCH to Neutral from Buy following last week’s Investor Day. Our model now reflects management’s detailed guidance, resulting in lower estimates, and we also lower our target valuation, leading to new target of $34 vs $48 previously.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $52 target) 3Q24 Model Update
We continue to see a positive risk-reward for the stock, anchored by strong margins and FCF generation, with share buybacks protecting downside ~$30 and the potential for strategic alternatives to unlock value if Tinder cannot grow MAUs and payers consistently.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $54 target) MTCH First Take: Positioning for a...
What's New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Tinder a la carte (ALC) rollout delayed, clouding outlook for the flagship app 2. Tinder MAU trends under more pressure since mid-Sept: back to school hangover? 3. Are new segment profit disclosures a precursor to “exploring strategic alternatives?” 4. What does all of this imply for the Investor Day? And the CFO transition? 5. What to do with the stock
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