reports
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Energy transition: set for a European-style IRA?
The signing into law of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US provides a clear-cut and visible legislative support for the development of renewable energies. Europe, faced with the risks of the relocation of investment in North America, is attempting to implement a comparable support mechanism, the “Net Zero Industry” plan. Within the renewable energy value chain, we recommend favouring groups with a foothold in the US market, chief amongst which: Nexans, Subsea 7, Technip ...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
PGS PGS ASA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
RWE RWE AG
NEX NEXANS SA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
TW11 TENARIS S.A.
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
REP REPSOL SA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
ERG ERG S.P.A.
ECV ENCAVIS AG
ANA ACCIONA SA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
IBE IBERDROLA SA
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
VLTSA VOLTALIA
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
SLR SOLARIA ENERGIA Y MEDIO AMBIENTE S.A.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
CGG CGG
ALFEN ALFEN NV
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
GRE GRENERGY RENOVABLES
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
SHEL SHELL PLC
DEME DEME GROUP NV
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO : Transition énergétique : IRA ou pas en Europe
La mise en place de l’Inflation Reduction Act aux Etats-Unis offre un cadre législatif de soutien clair et visible pour le développement des énergies renouvelables. L’Europe, face aux risques de délocalisation des investissements vers l’Amérique du Nord, tente de mettre en place un schéma de soutien équivalent « Industrie Net Zéro ». Dans cette attente, , nous privilégions, au sein de la chaîne de valeur du renouvelable, les groupes présents sur le marché américain, et notamment ...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
PGS PGS ASA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
RWE RWE AG
NEX NEXANS SA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ENEL ENEL SPA
TW11 TENARIS S.A.
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
REP REPSOL SA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
ERG ERG S.P.A.
ECV ENCAVIS AG
ANA ACCIONA SA
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
IBE IBERDROLA SA
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
VLTSA VOLTALIA
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
SLR SOLARIA ENERGIA Y MEDIO AMBIENTE S.A.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
CGG CGG
ALFEN ALFEN NV
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
GRE GRENERGY RENOVABLES
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
SHEL SHELL PLC
DEME DEME GROUP NV
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
- Anthony Dick
- Baptiste Salaville
- Michael Foundoukidis
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/11/2022
We have put the Aegon NL - ASR transaction into our Aegon model. This transaction was rational and good for Aegon. We estimate that the Aegon NL – ASR transaction will result in an Operating capital generation (OCG) per share increase of +14% in 2025, and we estimate that the Solvency 2 ratio impact will be -21pp. Apart from that, the Q3 earnings were somewhat less than we expected, and the solvency was in line. Keeping the Asia TLB and US VA business is logical and good for cash flow...
CON CONTINENTAL AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ENGI ENGIE SA.
ZURN ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP LTD
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ALV ALLIANZ SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
BNR BRENNTAG SE
AUTO AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
- Anthony Dick
- Baptiste Salaville
- Michael Foundoukidis
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 11/11/2022
We have put the Aegon NL - ASR transaction into our Aegon model. This transaction was rational and good for Aegon. We estimate that the Aegon NL – ASR transaction will result in an Operating capital generation (OCG) per share increase of +14% in 2025, and we estimate that the Solvency 2 ratio impact will be -21pp. Apart from that, the Q3 earnings were somewhat less than we expected, and the solvency was in line. Keeping the Asia TLB and US VA business is logical and good for cash flow...
CON CONTINENTAL AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ENGI ENGIE SA.
ZURN ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP LTD
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ALV ALLIANZ SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
BNR BRENNTAG SE
AUTO AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Publication inférieure aux attentes et offre de Sieme...
>Lancement de l’offre de Siemens Energy = Apporter à l’offre - A la suite de la publication des résultats annuels (exercice clos à fin septembre), nous ajustons notre séquence de résultats à la baisse (en moyenne -30 %sur 2023/25e). La remontée de la rentabilité prendra plus de temps, même si les fondamentaux du secteur se sont améliorés sous l’effet 1/ des tensions géopolitiques, 2/ de la volonté de l’Europe de sécuriser ses sources d’approvisionnements en énergie a...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Publication shy of expectations and bid from Siemens ...
>Launch of Siemens Energy’s bid - Tender to the offer - Following the annual results publication (financial year to end-September), we are lowering our earnings estimate (by -30% on average over 2023-2025). The upturn in profitability will take more time even though sector fundamentals have improved due to i/ geopolitical tensions, 2/ Europe's determination to secure its energy supplies as well as 3/ the need to invest in low-carbon projects. This strengthens the pip...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
EN BOUYGUES SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
RAA RATIONAL AG
MAP MAPFRE SA
CABK CAIXABANK SA
RACE FERRARI NV
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
TKWY JUST EAT TAKEAWAY.COM N.V.
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
BNTX BIONTECH SE
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
EN BOUYGUES SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
RAA RATIONAL AG
MAP MAPFRE SA
CABK CAIXABANK SA
RACE FERRARI NV
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
TKWY JUST EAT TAKEAWAY.COM N.V.
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
BNTX BIONTECH SE
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Persistent difficulties
>Pending the offer from Siemens Energy (Neutral vs Outperform) - Following the release of the Q3 2022 results (quarter ending 30 June), we lower our earnings forecasts. The upturn in profitability will take time even though sector fundamentals have improved due to geopolitical tensions and Europe's determination to secure its energy supplies. This strengthens the pipeline of potential projects, even though the question of how fast margins will recover remains unanswer...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Difficultés persistantes
>Dans l’attente de l’offre de Siemens Energy (Neutre vs Surperformance) - A la suite de la publication des résultats du T3 2022 (exercice clos à fin juin), nous ajustons notre séquence de résultats à la baisse. La remontée de la rentabilité prendra du temps, même si les fondamentaux du secteur se sont améliorés sous l’effet des tensions géopolitiques et la volonté de l’Europe de sécuriser ses sources d’approvisionnements en énergie. Ceci renforce le pipeline de proje...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/23/2022
We held our twenty-seventh ABN AMRO – ODDO BHF Benelux Forum this week. For the first time in three years the conference was in physical mode at the headquarters of ABN AMRO, which was well appreciated by investors and issuers. This year some 66 institutional investors had a total of 140 meetings with 21 issuers. We welcomed investors from the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Switzerland and the UK - ...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 23/05/2022
We held our twenty-seventh ABN AMRO – ODDO BHF Benelux Forum this week. For the first time in three years the conference was in physical mode at the headquarters of ABN AMRO, which was well appreciated by investors and issuers. This year some 66 institutional investors had a total of 140 meetings with 21 issuers. We welcomed investors from the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Switzerland and the UK - ...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Siemens Energy offer for Siemens Gamesa minorities
>Cash offer by Siemens Energy at € 18.05 per share - Siemens Energy announced it has launched a cash offer for all the capital of Siemens Gamesa (SGRE) that it does not own, or around 32.9% for € 4bn.SGRE minority shareholders will be offered € 18.05 per share (a 7.7% premium to the last closing price). This equates to a premium of close to 28% to the closing price on 17 May (before the offer rumours) but the discount to the average price for SGRE over a year is ...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Offre de Siemens Energy sur les minoritaires de Sieme...
>Offre de Siemens Energy en cash à 18.05 € par action - Siemens Energy a annoncé lancer une offre de rachat en cash de l’intégralité du capital de Siemens Gamesa (SGRE) qu’il ne possède pas, soit environ 32.9% pour 4 Md€.Les actionnaires minoritaires de SGRE se verront offrir 18.05 € par action (prime de 7.7% versus le dernier cours). Ceci correspond à une prime de près de 28% par rapport au cours de clôture du 17 mai (avant les rumeurs d’offre) mais la décote es...
- Jerôme Bodin
CS AXA
LR LEGRAND SA
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
ADS ADIDAS AG
G1A GEA GROUP AG
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SQ SQUARE INC. CLASS A
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
DEC JCDECAUX SA
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
TLX TALANX AG
RTLL RTL GROUP S.A.
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
INGA ING GROEP NV
FNTN FREENET AG
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
FER FERROVIAL S.A.
LDO LEONARDO SPA
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jerôme Bodin
CS AXA
LR LEGRAND SA
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
ADS ADIDAS AG
G1A GEA GROUP AG
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SQ SQUARE INC. CLASS A
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
DEC JCDECAUX SA
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
TLX TALANX AG
RTLL RTL GROUP S.A.
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
INGA ING GROEP NV
FNTN FREENET AG
GAM SIEMENS GAMESA RENEWABLE ENERGY S.A.
FER FERROVIAL S.A.
LDO LEONARDO SPA
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Patience is the mother of all virtues
>Towards a delayed rise in margins, target price revised to € 21 - Following the release of the Q2 22 results (year to the end of September), we are adjusting our earnings forecasts. The upturn in profitability will take time even though the sector's fundamentals have improved due to geopolitical tensions and Europe's determination to secure its energy supplies. This underpins the pipeline of potential projects. The market will nonetheless continue to focus on margin...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Siemens Gamesa : Patience mère de toutes les vertus
>Vers une remontée décalée des marges, OC revu à 21 € - A la suite de la publication des résultats du T2 22 (exercice clos à fin septembre), nous ajustons notre séquence de résultats. La remontée de la rentabilité prendra du temps, même si les fondamentaux du secteur se sont améliorés sous l’effet des tensions géopolitiques et la volonté de l’Europe de sécuriser ses sources d’approvisionnements en énergie. Ceci renforce le pipeline de projets potentiels. Cependant le...
- Anis Zgaya
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
ODDO : Turbine country
We are extending coverage of the wind turbine equipment manufacturers to Siemens Gamesa (Outperform) and Vestas (Underperform) alongside Nordex (Outperform). Contract execution in the backlogs continues to be hit by rising raw material costs, leading to margin squeezes. This episode appears to be temporary, while the long-term fundamentals of the sector remain intact. Finally, we analyse the ESG challenges of the sector and give our opinion of the performance and risk management ...
- Anis Zgaya
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
ODDO : Le pays d’Eole
Nous étendons la couverture des équipements éoliens avec Siemens Gamesa (Surperformance) et Vestas (Sous-performance) en complément de Nordex (Surperformance). L’exécution des contrats dans les carnets de commandes reste impactée par la hausse des coûts matières premières entraînant des pincements des marges. Cet épisode semble transitoire alors que les fondamentaux de LT du secteur restent intacts. Enfin, nous analysons les enjeux ESG du secteur et donnons notre opinion de la pe...
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