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Lukasz Wachelko ... (+2)
  • Lukasz Wachelko
  • CFA

WOOD Flash – Sphera Group: 4Q25 broadly in line with expectations

Sphera has reported its 4Q25 results, which were broadly in line with our expectations: the company was able to regain its positive EBITDA dynamics at the end of a cyclically soft year. Sales grew by 4% yoy, while the costs of food (+1% yoy) and labour (+4% yoy) no longer expanded faster, driving an EBITDA recovery of 3% yoy, to RON 50m, 8% below our forecast. On the bottom line, Sphera delivered a 7% yoy drop, but came in 36% above our expectations. The company also held a webcast this morning,...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EAT PW; KRU PW; TXT PW; ENA PW; CTPNV NA; RICHT HB; DHS HB...

HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q25 miss, due mainly to allegations about food safety in Czechia NEGATIVE • Kruk: 4Q25 results – bit of a mixed bag • Text: 3Q25-26 (calendar 4Q25) results – EBITDA down 25% yoy, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Enea: impairments and higher provisions to reduce 2025 net income by PLN 1.37bn and EBITDA by PLN 162m NEUTRAL • CTP: 4Q25 results and conference call • Richter: 4Q25 beat, on gross margin and tight opex control POSITIVE • Duna House: 4Q25 in line, guidance implies ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: TL Food Retailers; BDX PW; ALE PW; HU Macro; RICHT HB; NRP...

HEADLINES: • Turkish food retailers: resilient in transition (BIM and Migros stay BUY, Sok Marketler stays HOLD) • Budimex: 4Q25 preliminary results in line with the January guidance NEUTRAL • Allegro: 4Q25E results preview – adjusted EBITDA expected to grow by 13% yoy (due on 12 March) NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB delivers long-awaited rate cut • Richter: 4Q25E preview (due on 27 February) NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H25 results at the top of the guided range NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: 4Q25E...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: ALR PW; OTP HB; DIGI RO

HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: 4Q25 results beat expectations, on low admin and credit risk costs POSITIVE • OTP Bank: 4Q25E preview (due on 6 March) • DIGI Communications: key takeaways from the 4Q25 earnings call POSITIVE

Felix Fischer ... (+5)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Telecom Italia, Digi Communications, TK Elevator, Azelis, EnQuest Plc, TAP, Guala Closures, Odfjell Drilling, Sasol, Victoria, International Personal Finance

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Digi (Equal Weight) Q4 25: New bullish Spanish guidance; Portugal fibr...

Digi has reported a weak set of results vs our expectations, but has given new bullish mid-term guidance for Spain, and reported good Spanish EBITDAaL growth (+41% y/y) as the MNO benefits continue to come through.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: GSPARK HB; KRU PW; CPS PW; DNP PW; DIGI RO; BIMAS TI; EME ...

HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 4Q25 – low LTV, high ROE POSITIVE • Kruk: issues preliminary 2025 net profit, almost in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: main shareholders (Mr. Solorz's heir) want to participate in next nuclear power project NEGATIVE • Dino Polska: 4Q25E preview – 3% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 March) NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 4Q25 preliminary results – adjusted EBITDA up 7% yoy, 6% below our estimate NEGATIVE • BIM: BoD decides to increase the paid-...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BFT PW; ING PW; MBK PW; CAR PW; VGO PW; GEKTERNA GA; DIGI ...

HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: grow baby, grow! (BUY - transfer of coverage) • ING BSK: 4Q25 results beat; solid DPS guidance; recent share price rally might have consumed part of the upside • mBank: solid 4Q25; rather cautious on the 2026E revenue outlook NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales increase by 4.0% yoy NEGATIVE • VIGO Photonics: 4Q25E results preview – solid yoy adjusted EBITDA improvement expected (due on 16 March) • GEK Terna: seals c.EUR 1bn of Romanian railway projects – positive, b...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EAT PW; SFG RO; INPST NA; MIL PW; PGE PW; APR PW; DVL PW; ...

HEADLINES: • AmRest/Sphera Group: no beauty and no beast (AmRest stays BUY, Sphera downgraded to HOLD) • InPost: EUR 15.6 offer from FedEx, Advent, A&R and PPF consortium POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: solid 4Q25 delivery, beat due to tax differences NEUTRAL • PGE: URE initiates proceedings over FWRC settlements NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: January sales growth drops to 3.4% yoy NEGATIVE • Develia: 4Q25E preview – 30% EBITDA drop, following margin normalisation (due on 3 April) • 4iG: 4Q25E preview – 4%...

Lukasz Wachelko ... (+3)
  • Lukasz Wachelko
  • CFA
  • Marek Szymański

AmRest/Sphera Group: no beauty and no beast (AmRest stays BUY, Sphera ...

Over the past year, Sphera’s share price has weathered the macro storm in Romania well, supported by its unique position of being the only consumer name listed locally. At the same time, AmRest has extended its downward move that started in 2024, as investors have kept on questioning the company’s weak earnings momentum and lack of triggers. At its current level of 8x 2026E EBITDA, on our estimates, we see Sphera as fully valued, and we downgrade the name to HOLD (from Buy), with a new price tar...

Miguel Dias
  • Miguel Dias

WOOD Flash – BRD-GSG: dividend payout of 50% proposed, and notes from ...

BRD-GSG is proposing a 50% dividend payout ratio from its 2025 net profit, below the 60% we assumed back in 2025 and implying a c.18% lower DPS for 2025 than we expected (RON 1.11 vs. RON 1.36). At the current price levels, this implies a 3.8% dividend yield. This proposal is subject to approval at the GSM, to be held on 29 April.

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Société Générale earnings, Canadian covereds

Société Générale earnings get a boost from a profitability uplift. Friday's focus: Canadian covered bonds – good on issuer ratings and the strengthening of Canada's covered bond regime

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