EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
HEADLINES: • Dom Development: homebuilders critical to alleviating shortage (stays BUY) • 11 bit studios: solid 4Q21 results, with good quality beat vs. both our and market's expectations POSITIVE • Kety: final 4Q21 EBITDA 7% above preliminary forecast POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • PKO BP/Alior Bank: another switch in the management board NEGATIVE • Transelectrica: proposes to dis...
MARKET COMMENT - EQUITIES FROZEN, CAPITAL CONTROLS REMAIN AMID FALLOUT OF "SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION"EPAM Systems surged 8% and VEON 22%, while Polymetal fell 14% on Friday. The ruble fell 1.6-1.7% both in Moscow and offshore to trade around USD/RUB 104-105. While equities remain frozen, trading of ruble-denominated OFZ sovereign debt will resume today. STORIES> How the balance of payments is likely to evolve amid the crisis> Monetary policy set to be stimulatory for a couple of years> CBR Revi...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ТОРГОВЛЯ АКЦИЯМИ ПО-ПРЕЖНЕМУ ЗАМОРОЖЕНА, ОГРАНИЧЕНИЯ НА ДВИЖЕНИЕ КАПИТАЛА СОХРАНЯЮТСЯБумаги EPAM Systems выросли в пятницу в цене на 8%, VEON - на 22%, Polymetal подешевел на 14%. Рубль в Москве и на зарубежных площадках ослаб на 1,6-1,7% до 104-105 за доллар. Торговля акциями на МосБирже по-прежнему заморожена, но сегодня должны возобновиться торги ОФЗ. НОВОСТИ> Денежно-кредитная политика станет стимулирующей> Перспективы платежного баланса в условиях кризиса> Итоги засе...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
NOVATEK OAO (RU), a company active in the Exploration & Production industry, now shows a lower overall rating. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the fundamental rating of 2 stars out of 4, as well as the stock market behaviour of the title as moderately risky. However, environmental deterioration penalises the general evaluation, which is downgraded to Neutral. As of the analysis date February 22, 2022, the closing price was USD 160.05 and its expected value was estima...
HEADLINES: • Turkcell: 4Q21 results - low-quality NI beat, ambitious FY22E guidance POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 4Q21 results - strong beat, bullish FY22E guidance POSITIVE • MOL: 4Q21 results - EBITDA in line with expectations • SOK Marketler Ticaret: 4Q21 broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Kazakhstan macro: political revamp proceeding, but country strategy appears unchanged • Russian banks: rate hike damage assessment • Turkey macro: CBT on hold, as expected • Novatek: 4Q21 conferenc...
MARKET COMMENT - NEW RUSSIA-US DIPLOMATIC MEETING EASES SOME MARKET CONCERNSThe RTS sank 4.9% to 1,450 yesterday, sharply underperforming peers after a series of concerning political headlines in the afternoon. However, the announcement of a meeting next week between the top Russian and US diplomats has helped ease the tensions, and RTS futures are up 1.8% early this morning. The global backdrop has also improved to mixed after a weak day for global stock markets.STORIES> EPFR: Russia sees bette...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НОВАЯ ЗАПЛАНИРОВАННАЯ ВСТРЕЧА ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЕЙ РОССИИ И США НЕСКОЛЬКО УСПОКОИЛА РЫНОКИндекс РТС вчера снизился на 4,9% до 1 450 пунктов, сильно отстав от других развивающихся рынков после ряда тревожных политических новостей. Однако сообщение о запланированной на следующую неделю встрече российских и американских дипломатов немного сгладило ситуацию, и сегодня утром фьючерсы на индекс РТС прибавили 1,8%. Ситуация на глобальных фондовых рынках также немного улучшилась. НОВОС...
HEADLINES: • Inter Cars: value and growth (stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: NII recovery delivered as the bank rebuilds its bond portfolio POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 4Q21 results - adjusted EBITDAaL up 8% yoy, 4% above our estimate, 2% above consensus POSITIVE • Aygaz: 4Q21 results review - strong, above the consensus POSITIVE • Novatek: 4Q21 - strong results, in line with the consensus estimates • Tupras: 4Q21 results - big beat for net income on inventory gains • Sistema: may conduct IPO of Binno...
MARKET COMMENT - REFRESHED UKRAINE WORRIES ON DONBASS VIOLENCE, US ACCUSATIONSThe RTS gained 1.8% yesterday to reach 1,525, but early this morning futures are down more than 3%. Claims of ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine, US allegations of rising Russian troop deployments and a generally poor global backdrop are weighing on the market. Last night's MSCI Russia 10-40 pricing, several company events, EU and NATO summits, and scheduled remarks from top Russian officials are among the events ...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - СИТУАЦИЯ ВОКРУГ УКРАИНЫ ВНОВЬ ВЫЗЫВАЕТ ОБЕСПОКОЕННОСТЬ ИЗ-ЗА ОБОСТРЕНИЯ СИТУАЦИИ В ДОНБАССЕ И ОБВИНЕНИЙ СШАВчера индекс РТС вырос на 1,8% до 1 525 пунктов, но сегодня утром вновь теряет более 3%. Сообщения о нарушении режима прекращения огня на востоке Украины, заявления США об усилении российского военного присутствия на границе с Украиной и в целом негативный глобальный фон оказывают сейчас давление на рынок. Сегодня в центре внимания - вчерашнее изменение состава индек...
MARKET COMMENT - RTS'S 5% INTRADAY DECLINE PARED BY FOLLOWING POLICY REMARKSThe RTS ultimately fell 3% yesterday, having partly offset a 5% intraday decline following policy remarks from President Vladimir Putin and other Russian and European top officials. Futures and early trading suggest a continued rebound, though we note that global markets are highly volatile under rates and inflation concerns. Today's agenda is full of high-level political events, as well as Yandex's results.STORIES> Nova...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ИНДЕКС РТС ПОСЛЕ ПРОСАДКИ В ТЕЧЕНИЕ ДНЯ НА 5% СУМЕЛ ОТЧАСТИ КОМПЕНСИРОВАТЬ ПОТЕРИ БЛАГОДАРЯ ЗАЯВЛЕНИЯМ ПОЛИТИКОВ По итогам вчерашней сессии индекс РТС опустился на 3%, отчасти компенсировав пятипроцентное снижение в течение дня благодаря высказываниям президента России Владимира Путина, а также других российских и европейских политиков. Котировки фьючерсов и оптимистичное начало торгов указывают на сохранение восходящего тренда, однако отметим, что глобальные рынки сейча...
The 4Q21 earnings season is about to kick off starting with Rosneft on Friday, followed by Novatek (February 16) and Gazprom Neft (February 17) next week. Lukoil, Tatneft and Gazprom will report 4Q21 financials in March-April. We expect sector EBITDA to rise again, particularly in the gas segment amid record high European gas prices. Dividend distributions should rise across the sector as well. Based on our estimates for 4Q21, most of the companies should see their full-year financials bounce ba...
MARKET COMMENT - MARKETS MELTING UP; NEW US SANCTIONS BILL IMMINENTThe MSCI ACWI climbed 1.7% as global markets continued to climb on the last day of the month, with consumer discretionary and tech names in the lead. Easing US futures and a lack of fundamental drivers signal the global rally needs a new catalyst to push further. Russia melted up yesterday, the RTS climbing 2.0% to 1,435, while a new US sanctions bill and diplomatic headlines appear imminent today, as detailed below.STORIES> Luko...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НАСТРОЙ НА РЫНКАХ УЛУЧШИЛСЯ, В США ОЖИДАЕТСЯ НОВЫЙ ЗАКОНОПРОЕКТ О САНКЦИЯХИндекс MSCI ACWI вчера прибавил 1,7%, глобальные рынки в последний день января продолжали расти, при этом больше всего поднялись котировки потребительских и высокотехнологичных компаний. Снижение фьючерсов на фондовые индексы США и нехватка фундаментальных драйверов свидетельствуют о том, что для продолжения ралли на глобальных рынках необходим новый катализатор. На российском рынке вчера настрой ул...
MARKET COMMENT - A 6% CORRECTION ON DIPLOMAT QUOTES, BUT THE OVERALL BACKDROP IS MORE COMPLEXThe RTS saw its sharpest fall since April 2020, coinciding with negative remarks from diplomats regarding recent days' negotiations. However, the broader picture even on that issue is more complex. Meanwhile, Russia indicators have bounced back overnight. Global stock markets are under pressure separately, largely due to hawkish remarks from Fed officials that are of particular concern for growth stocks....
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