reports
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: 1Q23: Healthy Annually, Hindered Sequentially; Adjust FV to EG...
ASP SOLELY DRIVES PHARMA MARKET GROWTH The pharma market has been significantly challenged since 2020 (covid outbreak), before starting to gradually show signs of recovery in 1Q22. However, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine along with the rounds of EGP depreciation have capped growth and slowed down the recovery. The Egyptian pharma market has always been price-driven, where price increases used to drive two-thirds of the growth. However, given the current challenging macro dynamics (including ...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: 4Q22 | Healthy revenues and FX gains shape bottom-line
ASP SOLELY DRIVES PHARMA MARKET GROWTH Pharma market has been significantly challenged since 2020 (covid outbreak), before starting to gradually show signs of recovery in 1Q22. However, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine along with the rounds of EGP depreciation have capped growth and slowed down the recovery. The Egyptian pharma market has always been price-driven, where price increases used to drive two thirds of the growth. However, given the current challenging macro dynamics (including EGP ...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Healthy annual performance, stable sequentially
RETAIL PHARMA MARKET CONFIRMED SIGNS OF RECOVERY IN 1Q22 Retail pharma has partially recovered in 2021, confirming the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery expected in 2022. According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP86.45 billion in 2021, showing a modest of 7% YoY, according to the latest available data. Such YoY growth is higher than 2020 retail pharma market growth (+4% YoY growth) but is still below 2019 double-digit growth levels of c.17% YoY. In 1Q22, retail pharm...
EGYPT INTL PHARMACEU sees an upgrade to Positive due to a better funda...
The general evaluation of EGYPT INTL PHARMACEU (EG), a company active in the Pharmaceuticals industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date March 22, 2022, the closing price was EGP 40.61 a...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Healthy revenue growth; bottom-line capped by R&D and financin...
RETAIL PHARMA MARKET PARTIALLY RECOVERED Retail pharma has partially recovered in 2021, which confirms the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery expected in 2022. According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP86.45 billion in 2021 (in line with our estimates of EGP86.5 billion), showing a modest of 7% YoY, according to the latest available data. Such YoY growth is higher than 2020 retail pharma market growth (+4% YoY growth) but is still below 2019 double-digit growth levels...
- Mariam Wael
- Merna Arafat
Egypt Pharma 2022: Well positioned for recovery, supported by favorabl...
Egypt is the MEA region’s largest producer and second largest consumer of pharmaceuticals, growing at a CAGR of 17% over 2013a-2020a, surpassing the region’s CAGR of 8%. Despite pressure during the past couple of years because of the pandemic, we forecast total pharma market to grow at a 6-year CAGR of 13.2% between 2021e -26f. During 2022f, we expect the retail pharma market to record sales of EGP95.2 billion (+10.1% YoY), while non-retail pharma sales record EGP48.0 billion (+13.4% YoY), br...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Solid revenue growth; bottom-line pressured by R&D and financi...
MODEST GROWTH IN THE RETAIL PHARMA MARKET CAPS PERFORMANCE The retail pharma market continued to sequentially recover during 9M21, which confirms the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery expected in 4Q21. According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP62.0 billion during 9M21, showing modest growth of 6% YoY, according to the latest available data. Such YoY growth is higher than 2020 retail pharma market growth (+4% YoY growth) but is still below 2019 double-digit growth lev...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Sequential recovery paves the way for a better 2021
PHARMA MARKET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER IN 1Q21 According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP6.75 billion and EGP6.14 billion in January and February 2021, an increase of 14% and 5% YoY, according to the latest available data. This confirms a sequential recovery from 2020 (+4% YoY growth), but is still below 2019 double-digit growth levels of c.17% YoY. REVENUE GROWTH ANNUALLY AND SEQUENTIALLY CONFIRMS GRADUAL RECOVERY PHAR reported 1Q21 revenues of EGP814 million, an increase of 5.7...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Recovers sequentially but weakens annually
PHARMA MARKET GRADUALLY RECOVERS DURING 4Q20 According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP80.5 billion in 2020, an increase of 4% YoY. This came slightly lower than our growth estimates of 4.2% YoY. This shows a relatively solid recovery in November and December, where retail sales grew by around 13% and 8%, respectively. During 2021, we expect the retail pharma market to record sales of EGP87.3 billion (+8.8% YoY) and non-retail pharma sales to record EGP41.3 billion (+7.1% YoY), brin...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Management webinar key takeaways
On the ground update * According to IQVIA’s latest available data, Egypt’s retail pharmaceutical market registered total sales of EGP73.1 billion during 11M2020; recording a growth of 4% YoY. Volumes sold recorded a slight decline of 2.0% YoY reaching 2.26 billion units in 11M2020, with only higher ASP driving market growth. * During November 2020, retail sales grew by 13% YoY, to reach EGP7.4 billion, while volumes grew by 5% YoY to reach 226 million units. 2020 financial highligh...
- Mariam Wael
- Merna Arafat
Egypt Pharma 2021: Not entirely defensive; Macro dynamics to support g...
Egypt is the MEA region’s largest producer and second-largest consumer of pharmaceuticals, growing by a CAGR (2013-2019) of 19%, surpassing the region’s CAGR of 8%. Market growth is predominantly driven by out of the pocket expenditure (61% of total health expenditure), alongside a heavily growing population by c.2% per annum. Yet, Egypt still exhibits one of the lowest pharma expenditure per capita figures in the MENA region, implying vast room for future growth. We forecast the total pharma...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Revenue recovers sequentially, opex and finance cost pressure ...
SIGNS OF GRADUAL MARKET RECOVERY AFTER 1H2020 PRESSURED PERFORMANCE According to IQVIA’s latest available data, Egypt’s retail pharmaceutical market registered total sales of EGP58.35 billion during 9M2020; recording a growth of 2% YoY. Volumes sold recorded a modest decline of 4.0% YoY reaching 1.81 billion units in 9M2020, with only higher ASP driving market growth. During September 2020, retail sales grew by 14% YoY, while volumes grew by 3% YoY showing strong signs of gradual recovery. We...
- Mariam Wael
EIPICO: Q2 20 – Unfavourable market dynamics pressure performance; m...
According to IMS Health latest available data, Egypt’s retail pharmaceutical market registered total sales of EGP29.85 billion between Jan-May 2020, compared to EGP31.4 billion during Jan-May 2019, recording a decline of 5% YoY. During Jan-May 2020, retail volumes showed a decline of 9% YoY to reach 941.98 million units. Weak retail market growth is primarily driven by challenges imposed by pandemic, movement restrictions imposed and the closure of public hospitals' outpatient clinics that ca....
- Khaled Sadek
Turnaround story in the making; Upgrade to OW
New skin, new strategy. Reliance on third party pharma distributors, new product launches, a growing export base, and headcount reduction are the key pillars aimed by EIPICO’s newly appointed Chairman & MD (effective Jan-19), to revive profitability. 1Q19 was a testament to new management’s execution power, which saw local sales surge 29% vs. 24% for the market. We upgrade to Overweight from Neutral, with a revised TP of EGP110/share (+17%), stemming from c14% higher EBITDA p.a. over 2019-23e, o...
- Hany Farahat
Egypt | Global externalities a setback; Favour defensive plays and val...
Global pressures pose risk to short-term outlook. Higher oil prices and global financial pressures encourage a conservative shift in fiscal and monetary policies. Our base case assumes an average 55% fuel subsidy cut in July, along with a 1% hike in policy rates in 3Q18. Based on the government’s budget for an oil price of USD67/bbl (vs. USD76 spot), and the USD:EGP rate of 17.25 for FY18/19, we calculate a combined EGP5bn increase in costs for each USD1 increase in Brent and 1% depreciation in ...
AMOC ALEXANDRIA MINERAL OILS
EKHO EGYPT KUWAIT HOLDING CO
PHAR EGYPTIAN INTERNATIONAL PHARMACEUTICAL IND
EMFD EMAAR MISR FOR DEVELOPMENT SAE
TMGH TALAAT MOUSTAFA GROUP HOLDING
ORHD ORASCOM DEVELOPMENT EGYPT SAE
QNBA QATAR NATIONAL BANK ALAHLY
IBNSINA THE IBN SINA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY LIMITED
OLFI OBOUR LAND FOR FOOD INDUSTRIES
RACC RAYA CONTACT CENTER CO
MFPC MISR FERTILIZERS PRODUCTION CO SAE
- Khaled Sadek
Reiterate OW even with no one-off price hikes
Raise TP by 27% on better margin outlook. We raise 2017-21e EBITDA by an average of 25% p.a. on a higher-than-initially expected windfall from the Ministry of Health (MoH) price hike in Jan-17 when EIPICO’s portfolio saw 97 products (c80% of local revenue) repriced upwards by 50%. 1H17 EBITDA margin widened 8.6pp to 45.6%, inflated by low-cost inventory. Although the company only started to sell in Apr-17 at new prices, we see 1H17 margins as peak and look for a 2018e EBITDA margin of 43.3%, as ...
- Khaled Sadek
Pharma price revisions raise TP by c30%, reiterate Overweight
MoH hikes pharma prices. 3k products (c15% of local products in the market, c20% of imported products) were re-priced upwards by the Ministry of Health (MoH) on 12 Jan-17 by 30%-50%, depending on the retail price point, with immediate effect on any new production. EIPICO’s portfolio saw 97 products, generating c80% of local revenue, all re-priced upwards by 50%. We raise our TP by c30% to EGP120/share on 40% and 43% higher EBITDA and earnings over 2017-21e, respectively. We expect the stock to r...
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