A director at Komercijalna Banka Skopje bought 1,000 shares at 0.000MKD and the significance rating of the trade was 98/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...
We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Zagreb Stock Exchange: remains BUY, following the share price dip (stays BUY) • NLB Banka: solid performance ytd, but price remains high (stays SELL) • Isbank: 2Q22 highlights - good revenue performance, COR guidance more positive vs. peers • CEZ: 2Q22 results - large EBITDA miss, due to hedging revaluations, FY guidance hiked • PKO BP: may lose another CEO in less than two years, launches EMTN programme up to EUR 4bn NEGATIVE • Allegro: accusations of abuse of dominant position...
In this report, we have updated our estimates for the 2Q22 numbers, reported recently, while we keep our SELL on the name. We calculate our new 12-month price target (PT) at MKD 23,435/share, which offers downside of c.9%. While our outlook for NLB Banka ad Skopje is generally positive, our SELL recommendation is a valuation call, as we see the bank’s shares as expensive in the market currently, mostly as our P/BV and P/E multiples for 2022-24E remain 19-37% above the frontier peer group, while ...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Erdemir: attractive dividend yield, offset by cost pressures (HOLD - reinitiation of coverage) • Titan Cement: recovering lost ground (stays BUY) • Erste Bank: posts very solid 2Q22 results and guidance mix POSITIVE • Otokar: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 2Q22, guidance upgraded for 2022E • National Bank: another solid beat, with upside risks for 2022E forecasts • NLB Banka: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE reaches as much as 20.8% • Zagreb Stock E...
HEADLINES: • Pilulka Lekarny: blowing with the e-commerce wind (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Wizz Air: thoughts on capital increase post 1Q FY23 results, CASK and RASK comparison vs. RYA • Mytilineos: strong second quarter, 2H22E should be even better • Titan Cement: 2Q22 - price increases restoring profitability • Garanti: 2Q22 highlights - beat, with lower quality • Ford Otosan: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 2Q22 - another strong quarter POSITIVE • Arena Hosp...
HEADLINES: • Polish mobile gaming: new normal, more challenges (Huuuge Games stays BUY, Ten Square Games downgraded to HOLD) • NLB Banka: a good asset for a very high price (stays SELL) • Polish banks: private IPS approved - costs for 2022E, benefit potential beyond 2022E NEUTRAL • European oil and gas monthly: May 2022 • Greece macro: GDP surprises to the upside in 1Q • Kalekim: announces revised 2022E guidance, incorporating Lyksor Chemicals POSITIVE • Conpet: Petrotel Lukoil has until 5 De...
In this report, we maintain our SELL recommendation on NLB Banka, while reducing our price target (PT) by c.13% to MKD 21,095/share, from MKD 24,158/share. The bank continues to perform well, in the current environment, and its future performance should be supported further by the now growing interest rates in North Macedonia. This is likely to continue, supporting the NIMs, profitability and ROEs further, in our view. We continue to appreciate the bank’s solid asset quality and capitalisation l...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Photon Energy: discover a great solar growth proxy (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Komercijalna Banka: performing well, but remains expensive (stays SELL) • Immofinanz: CPI offer is attractive (downgraded to SELL) • Huuuge Games: 1Q22 adjusted EBITDA in line with our forecast, but 22% ahead of the consensus NEUTRAL • Enea: 1Q22 results review - fully in line with the preliminary figures NEUTRAL • PGE: 1Q22 results review - in line with prelims NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 1Q22 - recurring...
Komercijalna Banka continues to outperform the MBI Index, and is up 37.2% in the LTM, vs. 14.4% growth in the benchmark. This is attributable partially to the solid ROEs reported over the past couple of periods, backed by the bank’s very conservative balance sheet structure. Looking at our forward-looking multiple of 1.7x P/BVs for 2022-23E, the valuation seems relatively stretched. At such premia (108-115%), the stock screens as too expensive vs. the other banks under our coverage, in our view....
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: EU vs. Russia - a marathon, not a sprint • Yapi Kredi: 1Q22 highlights - better than expected in core numbers • Siauliu Bankas: 1Q22 - good start to 2022 • NLB Banka: 1Q22 results review - impairment reversals lift ROE to 18.0% POSITIVE • Allterco: final 4Q21 EBITDA 6% above preliminary result POSITIVE • Alkaloid: 1Q22 results review NEUTRAL • Shoper: management's dividend recommendation, vast majority goes to preference shares, as expected NEUTRAL • Inter C...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Russia can live (but not thrive) without EU gas payments • Erste Bank: strong start to 2022 with the 1Q22 delivery POSITIVE • Kruk: publishes detailed 1Q22 - solid trends, but supported by positive revaluations, as suspected NEUTRAL • Tekfen Holding: 1Q22 results - another major miss NEGATIVE • Turkcell: 1Q22 results in line, except a 10% NI miss; FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Enerjisa Enerji: 1Q22 results review - mixed, but FY guidance revised up NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • Jumbo: solid 2H21 results • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q21 results below expectations, dividend proposal of EUR 0.9/share • mBank: to create PLN 192.7m of FX mortgage litigation risk provisions in 1Q22E NEUTRAL • Famur: 4Q21 conference call takeaways NEGATIVE • Jeronimo Martins: Biedronka introducing fixed pricing for 150 basic SKUs by the end of June NEGATIVE • PKO BP: AGM scheduled for 12 May, to vote on the dividend and share buyback among other things • Alior Bank: EGM introduces ch...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: still a market leader, with ambitions for more (upgraded to BUY) • Nuclearelectrica: riding the power price boom (upgraded to BUY) • Czech Republic macro: CNB hikes, with a cautious undertone • CEE macro: CE4 yields and macro forecasts update • Ekspress Grupp: final 4Q21 figures in line with prelims, ambitious 2026E profitability target • Ten Square Games: key takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: management proposes PLN 2.68/share div...
EME Equity Market – January 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities lost 9.3%, while Turkish and Hungarian stocks advanced 8.6% and 9.3%, respectively, in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 4.5% in EUR terms and 5.9% in USD. Hungary’s equities were the best performers in January, adding 9.3% in EUR and 5.4% in HUF terms; followed by Turkish equities, with an 8.6% gain in EUR and an 8.8% gain in TRY. In Greece, the ASE Index added 4.9%, while the PX Index, the Czech benchmark, gained ...
HEADLINES: • Greece macro: strong growth, high inflation • Poland macro: NBP President Glapinski reappointed • NLB Banka: 4Q21 results review - solid quarter, with annualised ROE of 15.6% • PGNiG: operating estimates for 4Q21, gas production volumes up 48% • O2 Czech Republic: shares to be withdrawn from trading on Prague Stock Exchange at end-February NEUTRAL • Electrica: looking to contract RON 1.5bn working capital loan for supply • Mobile TeleSystems: New Towers in talks to buy MTS' mo...
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