Three Directors at Lucas Bols Nv sold 808,303 shares at 18.000EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
Last week we held our third ODDO BHF Iberian Forum, the third since the announcement of our partnership with BBVA. The event was fully virtual and took place on 4 and 5 October. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 180 institutional investors and more than 700 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 47 feedback documents, with 6 target price revisions (o/w 4 downgrades). The main subjects of debate were, on the one han...
Last week we held our third ODDO BHF Iberian Forum, the third since the announcement of our partnership with BBVA. The event was fully virtual and took place on 4 and 5 October. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 180 institutional investors and more than 700 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 47 feedback documents, with 6 target price revisions (o/w 4 downgrades). The main subjects of debate were, on the one han...
>Nolet offers € 18/share, or a 76% premium for Lucas Bols - Long-term shareholder Nolet (approximately 29.9% of the shares) yesterday morning announced a recommended public offer (cash) for Lucas Bols of € 18 per share, implying a significant premium of 76%. The offeror and Lucas Bols have received a binding equity commitment letter from Nolet to fund the acquisition of the shares under the offer. Lucas Bols will continue to be based in Amsterdam and to operate with i...
Nous abordons les T2 2023 avec un SOX au plus haut (+40% à 17x l’EBITDA vs 13x sur 5 ans). Le point bas des ventes de semiconducteurs a été atteint, selon nous, en avril, mais le rerating nous semble plutôt avoir été tiré par des ‘valeurs IA’, alors que les valeurs Auto/Industrie sont en retard. Retraité des ‘valeurs IA’, le SOX se traite toujours sur un multiple de VE/EBITDA attractif (12x). En Europe, le rerating lié à l’IA a profité aux équipementiers, mais sa traduction en nouvell...
We are approaching Q2 2023 with the SOX at a peak (+40% at 17x EBITDA vs 13x over 5 years). In our view, the low point in semiconductor sales was reached in April, but we think the re-rating seems to have been driven notably by ‘AI stocks’, while auto/industry stocks are lagging behind. Restated for AI stocks, the SOX is still trading at an attractive EV/EBITDA multiple (12x). In Europe, the re-rating was beneficial to equipment suppliers, but its translation into new orders will not...
>Promising acquisitions to be developed - In the past few years, Lucas Bols has been doing sizeable acquisitions, including Passoa and Tequila Partida. Other smaller brands have been acquired as well, such as Fluere and Nuvo, regarding which a call option was exercised on 1 July 2023 for a $ 5.7m purchase price. Those acquisitions should enable the company to widen its liqueur and spirit range, and to further follow cocktail trends. However, we believe the new brands...
Le 15 & 16 mai, notre forum Sustainability réunissait 41 sociétés. Cette année, nous avons perçu un lien resserré entre politiques RSE et modèles d’affaires, pour une intégration de la durabilité à 360°. Nous privilégions 9 valeurs conjuguant positionnement différenciant et dynamique RSE positive (GSK, Veolia, SPIE, Mersen, Bureau Veritas, Voltalia, Iberdrola, Forsee Power et Carbios), et retenons 2 « ESG Improvers » à suivre (Renault, Umicore). - ...
On 15 and 16 May, our Sustainability Forum brought together 41 companies. This year, we noted a closer connection between CSR policies and business models, for an all-round integration of sustainability. We prefer nine names combining differentiating positioning and positive CSR momentum (GSK, Veolia, SPIE, Mersen, Bureau Veritas, Voltalia, Iberdrola, Forsee Power and Carbios) and highlight two ESG improvers to watch (Renault, Umicore). - ...
>3% miss on sales - The company reported a 3% miss on sales vs our estimates (no css available), fuelled mainly by driven by premiumisation, the acquisition of Tequila Partida, price increase and positive FX. Normalised operating profit missed our estimates by 28% due to higher input costs. On top comes a € 24m one-off included in opex due to a substantial increase in the applicable discount rate. We anticipated FCF to be quiet soft but it actually came in slightly h...
Les publications du T1 2023 se sont avérées nettement meilleures qu’attendu en Europe : 63% de Ventes et 70% de BPA supérieurs aux attentes. L’énergie, la technologie, la conso. discrétionnaire et les utilities arrivent en tête des surprises positives. Toutefois, le marché a peu salué ces publications, que ce soit dans son ensemble ou secteur par secteur. Le consensus 2023 et 2024 en termes de BPA a peu évolué, à l’exception du secteur du luxe, déjà largement joué par le marché. Le ma...
Q1 2023 results proved to be far better than expected in Europe, with 63% of sales and 70% of EPS ahead of forecasts. Energy, technology, discretionary consumer and utilities led the way for positive surprises. However, the market barely rallied on these results, whether taken as a whole or sector by sector. Consensus EPS forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have hardly changed, except for the luxury goods sector, already largely priced in by the market. There are growing signs of market jitte...
>2H22-23: growth drivers more challenging in the US, NL, UK and China - Lucas Bols is set to report its FY 22-23 results on 25 May. We expect positive growth in most European markets, which were still benefitting from easy comps (as some markets were still in lockdown in H2 21-22), with Passoa, Bols and Galiano outperforming. However, we anticipate the key growth drivers (the US, NL, the UK and China) to struggle performing. In the US (Lucas Bols’ biggest cocktail mar...
>Sales 16% ahead of AAOBe - A more cautious consumer is not yet visible in Bols’ 1H22/23 results: the company reported a 16% beat on sales vs our estimates (no css available), fuelled mainly by strong Regional Brands performance. Global Cocktail Brands sales coming in 9% above AAOBe and Regional Brands 38% above. On a brands basis, as guided, Bols Cocktails were strong in 1H22/23 as well as Regional Brands. On a regional basis, most key markets saw double-digit revenu...
After a rough patch during the crisis and with key players having now validated its urban and industrial sludge treatment technology, Orège is starting on a new growth phase (2025 sales of € 24.7m est. vs € 2.3m in 2021). The ramp-up should see a significant improvement in its operating performances (€ 6.7m of EBITDA in 2025 or 24.5% of sales). We are initiating coverage on Outperform with a target price of € 1.7. - ...
Après une période difficile pendant la crise et alors que des acteurs clés ont désormais validé sa technologie de traitement des boues urbaines et industrielles, Orège entame une nouvelle phase de croissance (CA de 24.7 M€e en 2025 vs 2.3 M€ en 2021). Le ramp-up devrait permettre une nette amélioration des agrégats financiers (6.7 M€ d’EBITDA en 2025 soit 24.5% du CA). Nous initions à Surperformance avec un OC de 1.7 €. - ...
>FY21/22 recap: solid across the board - Lucas Bols presented a solid set of FY21/22 results, with EPS beating BB consensus by 6% (operating profit by 12% excl. one-offs). On the demand side, the company is benefitting from on-trade reopenings, a strong US cocktail market and Dutch market share gains as a result of an effective brand and pricing architecture following a recent regulatory chance concerning a cap on promotions. The latter was most surprising to us, with...
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