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Mayar El Ashry
  • Mayar El Ashry

Emaar Misr For Development: 1Q23| Bottom Line Boosted by FX Gain

WEAKER OPERATIONAL RESULTS * EMFD reported 1Q23 revenue of EGP1.9 billion, down 27.5% y/y and 38.4% q/q, driven by revenue in Uptown Cairo, which constituted 45.7% of total revenue, followed by Marassi at 38.9%, Mivida at 14.6%, and hospitality at 0.8%. * Gross profit in 1Q23 reached EGP806.7 million, down 36.7% y/y and 40.0% q/q, leading to a GPM of 43.3%. * EBITDA in 1Q23 reached EGP648.6 million, down 44.6% y/y and 39.3% q/q, leading to an EBITDA margin of 34.8%, compared to 45....

Mayar El Ashry
  • Mayar El Ashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Net Profit Boosted by Finance Income

Solid full-year financial performance * EMFD reported FY22 sales of EGP18.1 billion, down 22.2% y/y. * Revenue in 4Q22 reached EGP3.0 billion, down 12.6% y/y and down 35.4% q/q, bringing FY22 revenue to EGP14.7 billion, up 33.0% y/y, supported by revenue in Mivida, which constituted 53.9% of total revenue, followed by Marassi at 29.0%, Uptown Cairo at 13.9%, and hospitality at 3.2%. * Gross profit in 4Q22 reached EGP1.3 billion, down 16.2% y/y and down 35.5% q/q, leading to a GPM o...

Mayar El Ashry
  • Mayar El Ashry

Emaar Misr For Development: 3Q22 | Another Solid Quarter

Mivida and Marassi deliveries drive revenue * EMFD reported solid 3Q22 revenue of EGP4.7 billion, up 22.2% y/y and 5.2% q/q, supported by revenue in Mivida, which constituted 47.7% of total revenue, followed by Marassi at 26.6%, Uptown Cairo at 18.2%, and hospitality at 7.5%, taking 9M22 revenue up 53.7% y/y to EGP11.7 billion. * Gross profit in 3Q22 grew 10.9% y/y and 8.8% q/q to EGP2.1 billion, leading to a GPM of 44.5%, lower annually and higher sequentially, and bringing 9M22 gross ...

Mayar El Ashry
  • Mayar El Ashry

Emaar Misr For Development: 2Q22 – Solid growth in revenue and earning...

REVENUE GROWS ON THE BACK OF MIVIDA AND MARASSI DELIVERIES * EMFD reported strong 2Q22 revenue of EGP4.5 billion, up 98.7% y/y and 73.2% q/q, supported by revenue in Mivida, which constituted 51.2% of total revenue, followed by Marassi at 45.6%, Uptown Cairo at 1.4%, and hospitality at 1.8%, taking 1H22 revenue up 85.6% y/y to EGP7.0 billion. * Gross profit in 2Q22 grew 106.1% y/y and 50.3% q/q to EGP1.9 billion, leading to a GPM of 43.0%, higher annually and lower sequentially. *...

Mayar El Ashry
  • Mayar El Ashry

Emaar Misr For Development: 1Q22 – finance income boosts bottom line

IMPRESSIVE GROWTH IN REVENUE AND EARNINGS * EMFD reported solid 1Q22 revenue of EGP2.6 billion, up 66.6% y/y and down 25.7% q/q, supported by revenue in Mivida, which constituted 74.0% of total revenue, followed by Marassi at 20.8%, Uptown Cairo at 4.8%, and hospitality at 0.4%. * Gross profit in 1Q22 reached EGP1.3 billion, up 105.1% y/y and down 20.6% q/q, leading to a GPM of 49.5%, higher annually and sequentially. * Net profit in 1Q22 grew 198.9% y/y and 21.2% q/q to EGP1.6 bil...

Mayar El Ashry
  • Mayar El Ashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Impressive Sales and Delivery Performance

Impressive growth in sales and deliveries * EMFD achieved solid FY21 sales of EGP23.2 billion, up 28.9% y/y. * 4Q21 revenue reached EGP3.5 billion, up 53.8% y/y and down 9.8% q/q, bringing FY21 revenue to EGP11.1 billion, up 136.6% y/y as a result of the 114.9% y/y rise in unit deliveries and the 138.4% y/y rise in hospitality revenue to EGP411.0 million. * Unit deliveries in Mivida, Marassi, and Uptown Cairo respectively contributed 51.0%, 30.7%, and 14.6% to FY21 revenue, and the...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Egypt Real Estate 2022: Macro supportive, but operational challenges a...

REAL ESTATE TO CONTINUE TO BE VIEWED AS A STORE OF VALUE We believe real estate will continue to be viewed as a store of value, especially in light of expected higher inflation in 2022. In terms of interest rates, we continue to view the relationship between real estate and interest rates as one based on market sentiment, whereby expected higher interest rates in 2022 would be negative, and reiterate our view that, while certificates of deposit may present competition to real estate as an inv...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Another Solid Quarter

Impressive growth in revenue and earnings * Revenue in 3Q21 increased 174.7% y/y and 71.1% q/q to EGP3.8 billion as a result of a rise in unit deliveries and hospitality revenue. * Unit deliveries in Mivida, Marassi, and Uptown Cairo respectively contributed 49.3%, 25.3%, and 18.3% to 3Q21 revenue, and the hospitality segment contributed the remaining 7.1%. * Gross profit in 3Q21 rose 261.0% y/y and 102.3% q/q to EGP1.9 billion, leading to a higher GPM of 49.0%. * Net profit i...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Emaar Misr For Development: A solid quarter

REVENUE AND EARNINGS RISE * Revenue in 2Q21 increased 181.8% y/y from a 2Q20 that had fairly stood its ground in the midst of the pandemic and 45.2% q/q to EGP2.2 billion as a result of a rise in unit deliveries and hospitality revenue. * Unit deliveries in Marassi, Mivida, and Uptown Cairo respectively contributed 50.9%, 31.6%, and 12.9% to 2Q21 revenue, and the hospitality segment contributed the remaining 4.6%. * Gross profit in 2Q21 rose 242.0% y/y and 49.6% q/q to EGP929.1 mil...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Favorable base effect at play

NUMBERS SURGE FROM LOW 1Q20 LEVELS * Revenue in 1Q21 increased 537.3% y/y to EGP1.5 billion as a result of a rise in unit deliveries. Unit deliveries in Marassi, Mivida, and Uptown Cairo respectively contributed 47.1%, 32.6%, and 19.8% to 1Q21 revenue, and the hospitality segment contributed the remaining 0.5%. * Gross profit in 1Q21 surged 2162.5% y/y to EGP621.1 million, leading to a higher GPM of 40.2%. * Net profit in 1Q21 rose 113.7% y/y to EGP529.1 million, translating into a...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Egypt real estate: Misalignment between sales and stock price performa...

In our 12-page report, we discuss charts that show three components: * Daily stock price over the last five years (January 3, 2016, to March 17, 2021) * Full-year real estate sales over the last five years (FY16 to FY20) * Price-to-sales (P/S) The charts cover seven real estate companies: MNHD, TMGH, PHDC, EMFD, ORHD, OCDI, and HELI. The sales data is depicted by the yellow bars which are placed at the end of each year given that the sales data represents full-year sales....

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Impressive sales performance

SALES RISE IN FY20 * EMFD achieved FY20 sales of EGP18.0 billion, up 14.6% y/y, making it the best-performing real estate company in terms of FY20 sales growth among our coverage. * Revenue in 4Q20 reached EGP2.4 billion, down 23.1% y/y and up 89.5% q/q, bringing FY20 revenue to EGP4.7 billion, down 17.5% y/y. 757 units were delivered in FY20, with deliveries in Mivida, Marassi, and Uptown Cairo respectively contributing 49.7%, 27.5%, and 19.1% to FY20 revenue. The hospitality segment c...

Emaar Misr For Development: 1 director sold

A director at Emaar Misr For Development sold 376,000 shares at 0.000EGP and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Revenue rises annually and sequentially

REVENUE UP Y/Y AND Q/Q EMFD reported solid 3Q20 revenue of EGP1.3 billion, up 43.7% y/y and 64.7% q/q. Unit deliveries in Mivida continued to contribute the most to revenue with a 57.2% share, followed by Marassi at 29.9% and Uptown Cairo at 12.9% in 3Q20. Gross profit followed suit and increased 32.9% y/y and 65.3% q/q to EGP461.7 million in 3Q20, giving way to a stable GPM of 36.4%, compared to 3Q19 GPM of 39.4% and 2Q20 GPM of 36.2%. Net profit in 3Q20 decreased 17.6% y/y and increased 20....

Omar El Menawy ... (+2)
  • Omar El Menawy
  • Sara Boutros

Egypt real estate | 2020 off year for developers amid COVID-19 outbrea...

Real estate sector fares better than previously indicated signs. Stocks across the board were impacted by COVID-19, especially in the real estate sector (-25% y-t-d vs. -20% for the EGX). The impact on the ground, however, has not been as negative as early signs indicated. Stronger-than-expected 1H20 performance and improved access to financing (300bps cut), along with earlier-than-expected removal of state banks’ 15% CDs (maturing Mar-21, potential flows into RE sector) are all pillars for the ...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Favourable base effect gives way to a bett...

Revenue down annually and up sequentially * EMFD reported relatively solid 2Q20 revenue of EGP770.6 million, down 13.5% y/y and up 221.7% q/q. Deliveries in Mivida contributed the most to 2Q20 revenue with a 75.5% share, followed by Marassi at 12.6% and Uptown Cairo at 11.9%. * Gross profit in 2Q20 was down 20.9% y/y and up 490.6% q/q to EGP279.3 million, giving way to a GPM of 36.2%, compared to 2Q19 GPM of 39.6% and 1Q20 GPM of 19.7%. * Net profit in 2Q20 increased to EGP365.7 mi...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Egypt Real Estate: Valuation update – a tough year

WE EXPECT SALES TO DECLINE 60-70% Y/Y IN FY20 Given the current Covid-19 situation, we expect real estate sales to decline 60-70% y/y in FY20. Current circumstances have prompted consumers to go into ‘wait and see’ mode, culminating in sales numbers taking a plunge. Indeed, 1Q20 numbers already portray this to be the case, casting company FY20 targets into far-fetched territory. We revisited our FY20 sales forecasts, which had already been at a significant discount to company targets, to rev...

Mayar Elashry
  • Mayar Elashry

Emaar Misr For Development: Disappointing results on fewer deliveries

FEWER DELIVERIES RESULT IN WEAK EARNINGS * EMFD kicked off the year with disappointing 1Q20 numbers where revenue dropped 57.7% y/y and 92.3% q/q to EGP239.5 million on the back of fewer deliveries. Mivida constituted 57.1% of revenue, and Uptown Cairo and Marassi respectively contributed 31.3% and 11.6%. * The decline in top line coupled with a higher COGS/revenue ratio led to the 81.1% y/y and 96.3% q/q drop in 1Q20 gross profit and translated into a GPM of 19.7%, significantly lower ...

Hany Farahat
  • Hany Farahat

Egypt | Global externalities a setback; Favour defensive plays and val...

Global pressures pose risk to short-term outlook. Higher oil prices and global financial pressures encourage a conservative shift in fiscal and monetary policies. Our base case assumes an average 55% fuel subsidy cut in July, along with a 1% hike in policy rates in 3Q18. Based on the government’s budget for an oil price of USD67/bbl (vs. USD76 spot), and the USD:EGP rate of 17.25 for FY18/19, we calculate a combined EGP5bn increase in costs for each USD1 increase in Brent and 1% depreciation in ...

Omar El Menawy ... (+2)
  • Omar El Menawy
  • Sara Boutros

Upgrade to Overweight on improved outlook

Pricing and timeline behind rating upgrade. Emaar Misr attended our 2nd Annual MENA Investor Conference in Cairo, ending 1 Feb 2018. During a meeting with management, we were able to improve our visibility on several aspects of the company, namely its monetisation plan for the coming years, which led us to: i) hike average pricing by c25% for 2018, and ii) shorten the company’s sales timeline by five years, jointly resulting in a 27% increase to 2018-20e sales forecasts. Consequently, we hike ou...

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