reports
- Gerben Hieminga
- Nadège Tillier
Energy price caps are appealing, but are not without risks
In this article our power market experts Gerben Hieminga and Nadège Tillier discuss the energy price cap recently proposed by the European Commission and detail the 10 things they will be monitoring closely in the run-up to, and after, the introduction of the cap
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 17.06.2022
ATX indices review - FFF and NoS changes in IMMOFINANZ and Marinomed Biotech CECE index review - FFF and NoS changes in Allegro, Colt and MOL FTSE Index June review - No changes of index constituents in our Coverage Universe STOXX Europe 600 Index review - No changes of index constituents in our Coverage Universe WIG20/WIG30 indices review - No change in constituents AT: Erste Group - Willibald Cernko appointed as CEO until end 2024 (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Results of...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 29.04.2022
AT: AMAG - Q1 results in line with RBIe but above consensus, major cash drain from NWC, FY 22 EBITDA guidance of > EUR 200 mn heralds (expected) upside to estimates (neutral) AT: Andritz - Record order backlog, in-line results and guidance confirmed (positive) AT: Erste Group - Q1 22 net profit beating expectations / strong core revenues offset by higher opex and weak trading result / guidance for 2022 marginally tweaked upwards / CET1 drop should be only temporary (positive) AT: Oester...
OMV OMV AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
SEM SEMPERIT HOLDING AG
LKOH OIL COMPANY LUKOIL PJSC
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
STR STRABAG SE
SIBN GAZPROM NEFT PJSC
ROSN ROSNEFT OIL CO.
SNGS SURGUTNEFTEGAS PJSC
TCS TCS GROUP HOLDING PLC SPONSORED GDR CLASS A REGS
HT-R-A HRVATSKI TELEKOM DD
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ENRU ENEL RUSSIA
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
ATGR-R-A ATLANTIC GRUPA
SNP PETROM S.A.
COTE CONPET SA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADRS2-R-A ADRIS GRUPA D.D. PFD.
ERNT-R-A ERICSSON NIKOLA TESLA D.D.
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 22.03.2022
AT: Palfinger - Yet another profit warning (negative) HU: Magyar Telekom - Magyar Telekom shareholder proposes a dividend of HUF 25 bn (neutral) HU: OTP Bank - Proposal for a catch-up DPS of HUF 426 from 2019/20 earnings and a symbolic DPS of HUF 3.3 from 2021 (negative) PL: CD Projekt - Company stated it is working on the next installment of the Witcher series, which will run on the Unreal 5 engine (positive) RO: Conpet - Board proposed 2021 DPS of RON 7.28, DY 9.6% (positive) RO: ...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - March 22, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - EQUITIES STILL SUSPENDED WHILE OIL, WHEAT SURGE ON LACK OF POSITIVE HEADLINES REGARDING THE CONFLICTMoscow equity trading continues into its unprecedented fourth week of suspension. Polymetal and VEON gained 2-3%, while other FSU stocks were mixed. The ruble weakened 2% offshore to reach nearly USD/RUB 107, while in Moscow it gained 0.8% to mark USD/RUB 104. OFZ (local ruble sovereign) bonds will trade for a second day.STORIES> Russian gas reaches record 15% of Chinese imports i...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 22 марта 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ЦЕНЫ НА НЕФТЬ И ПШЕНИЦУ ВЫРОСЛИ В ОТСУТСТВИЕ ХОРОШИХ НОВОСТЕЙТорги акциями не проводятся на Московской бирже четвертую неделю подряд. На зарубежных площадках Polymetal и VEON прибавили вчера в цене 2-3%, динамика акций других компаний из стран СНГ была смешанной. Рубль на внешнем рынке ослаб на 2% до примерно 107 руб. за доллар, а в Москве укрепился на 0,8% и достиг отметки 104. Сегодня состоится второй после перерыва день торгов ОФЗ. НОВОСТИ> Цены на нефть растут на фоне...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 17.03.2022
AT: Erste Group - Erste presents some insights into the exposure towards Russia, Ukraine and Belarus (neutral) AT: OMV - Key takeaways from OMV Strategy 2030 presentation (neutral) AT: SBO - Final results in line with preliminaries, 2021 DPS proposal of EUR 0.75 beats our expectations, higher E&P spending in 2022 to support demand for SBO's equipment and services (neutral) AT: Verbund - Q4 EBITDA about in line, net better on one-offs; FY 22 guidance wide as a barn door, upper end signals...
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Igor Rapokhin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - March 17, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - GLOBAL MARKETS SURGE WHILE RUSSIA SUSPENDED, RUBLE STILL DOWN 28% M-O-MRussian equities remain suspended at least through the end of this week, the third full week of suspension. Polymetal climbed 14%, offshore ruble quotes gained 8% to USD/RUB 98 and Moscow quotes 2% to USD/RUB 108.STORIES> Russian weekly inflation still very high at 2.1% last week> CBR Preview: CBR may take pause in rate hikes> Enel Russia 2021 IFRS results review: Dividend payments in 2022 canceled> Energy Mi...
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Igor Rapokhin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 17 марта 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - МИРОВЫЕ РЫНКИ ВЫРОСЛИ, РОССИЙСКИЙ РЫНОК ПО-ПРЕЖНЕМУ ЗАКРЫТ, РУБЛЬ ВСЕ ЕЩЕ НА 28% СЛАБЕЕ, ЧЕМ В ФЕВРАЛЕРоссийский рынок акций закрыт по меньшей мере до конца недели, то есть уже третью неделю подряд. Котировки Polymetal выросли на 14%, рубль на внешнем рынке укрепился на 8% до 98 за доллар, а на внутреннем - прибавил 2% до 108 за доллар. НОВОСТИ> За неделю цены в РФ выросли на 2,1%> Прогноз итогов заседания ЦБ РФ: ЦБ может взять паузу в повышении ставки> Цены на нефть стаб...
Enel Russia confirmed at BUY, TP RUB 0.98 - Green image, nice dividend...
Still the closest quasi-benchmark on Russian renewables there is Despite the Murmansk windfarm delays, around 30% of EBITDA this year is to come from renewables (around 40% next year) DY of 10% and higher long term (12-13% DY on average in 2022-23e) Reassurance on dividends at the Strategy update next month could be welcomed by investors Mothballed turbine equipment sale could be a positive short-term trigger (with an 8% upside) BUY confirmed, TP down to RUB 0.98 from RUB 1.04 on hig...
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
Russian Utilities - Following Interest Rate Trend
The shares of Russian power-generating companies (gencos) dropped 12% in ruble terms in 2021, underperforming the broader market by 27 pp amid an acceleration in inflation and rise in interest rates in Russia, which dimmed the dividend outlooks and the increased capex risks. Given the depressed current share prices, most of the stocks offer attractive returns. We expect to see investors become a bit more interested in the sector during the dividend season in June-July, but we do not anticipate a...
- Gerben Hieminga
- Nadège Tillier
- Warren Patterson
European Integrated Utilities/What we expect for 2022
Earnings season is kicking off for utilities. We expect the European integrated utilities to post an average 9% EBITDA growth in 2021. For 2022, according to guidance from the companies and our assumptions, we should see another year of sustained EBITDA growth at about 7%. Factors driving this sector growth include relatively elevated power prices with demand still growing, although at a much lower pace, ETS carbon emission contracts reaching record levels, and tensions between Russia and Ukrain...
A double requalification allows OJSC ENEL OGK-5 to improve to Slightly...
OJSC ENEL OGK-5 (RU), a company active in the Conventional Electricity industry, has received a double requalification by the independent financial analyst theScreener. Its fundamental valuation is now 3 out of 4 stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the gain of a star(s) and an improvement in the market risk perception allows upgrading the general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date January 18, 2022, the closing price was...
- Alyssa Gammoudy
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Nadège Tillier
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Timothy Rahill
- Andrey Gromadin
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
- Yaroslav Lissovolik
CIS Market Daily - December 17, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA SET FOR MILD PULLBACK TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY'S SURGEKey European and Asian stock indexes gained 1-2% yesterday after the strong close to the US session on Wednesday. European central banks announced policy tightening yesterday, which led to profit taking in the US, particularly in tech stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, while the NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.5%. The RTS outperformed with a gain of 4.1%. STORIES> Kremlin spokesperson: Russia ready to meet with NATO 'in any neutra...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 17 декабря 2021
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - КОРРЕКЦИЯ ПОСЛЕ РОСТААзиатские и европейские фондовые индексы в четверг поднялись на 1-2%, реагируя на рост американского рынка в среду. Европейские центробанки объявили вчера об ужесточении денежно-кредитной политики, что привело к фиксации прибыли на американских торговых площадках, особенно в акциях высокотехнологичных компаний. Индекс S&P500 просел на 0,9%, NASDAQ - на 2,5%. Индекс РТС вырос на 4,1%, показав опережающую динамику. НОВОСТИ> Рынок нефти неустойчив на фон...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Cole Akeson
- Fedor Kornachev
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - October 29, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - GLOBAL, RUSSIA INDICATORS SIGNAL CONSOLIDATION AMID FEW DEFINITIVE CATALYSTSDMs managed gains, with US indexes setting new records, while US GDP data came in weak and EMs and commodity stocks declined. The RTS fell 0.6% to 1,880. Global indicators lean more negative than not this morning, but markets lack definitive catalysts. Moscow Exchange's results and monthly socioeconomic data are due. STORIES> Highlights from Novatek's 3Q21 conference call> VEON 3Q21 IFRS results: Strong,...
Enel Russia Q3 21 - Possible capex overrun raises concerns
Strong market fundamentals and new windfarm capacity payments make up for expired CSA payments, but EBITDA still falls short of our expectations 2021e EBITDA, NI and dividend guidance confirmed New capex overrun possible Slightly negative market reaction possible
Enel Russia Q3 21 Earnings Preview - Strong market fundamentals, windf...
EBITDA expected close to flat yoy, NI to be up yoy due to the low base effect Windfarm capacity payments and strong market fundamentals to steady EBITDA yoy despite expired CCGT guaranteed returns Neutral market reaction possible
- Andrey Gromadin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Fedor Kornachev
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Lyudmila Melnikova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
- Sergey Donskoy
CIS Market Daily - October 26, 2021
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA SURGES ON CYCLICAL APPETITES, STILL CONSERVATIVE VALUATIONGlobal stock markets returned to growth, the MSCI ACWI edging up 0.3%. Cyclicals were in favor, though US tech also fared well, and defensive stocks were in the rear globally. The RTS soared 2.2% to a new 10-year high of 1,920, Russia benefiting from global appetites for cyclicals, rising EPS estimates and still-conservative valuations. APAC markets are mixed on China concerns today, while EMEA, US and Russia indic...
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