In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
A director at Phillips 66 sold/sold after exercising options 13,122 shares at 157.312USD and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over...
Upgrading Materials to Market Weight We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. This still has not happened, meaning the short-term trend remains bullish. Closes below their 20-day MAs have been extremely rare since the October 2023 bottom, with buyers stepping-in immediately. Still, we need to be prepared. If we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on the S&P 500 an...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Two Directors at ConocoPhillips sold/sold after exercising options 31,877 shares at between 112.060USD and 112.173USD. The significance rating of the trade was 99/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all th...
Yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI report continues to suggest a more restrictive Fed policy than the market has been expecting. This raises the possibility of further consolidation for small- and mid-caps. Meanwhile, large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023; the only question is whether that will continue to be the case, as our main concern remains rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have bro...
STRATEGY Since early-July (7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder, 7/18/23 Compass) we have discussed that we would need to see a break below 4300-4325 on the S&P 500 in order to shift to a defensive posture. We continue to believe that 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are constructive as long as the S&P 500 is above 4300-4325. As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we would not be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of cons...
Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight Near-term we continue to see the S&P 500 moving higher, likely heading toward 4600 resistance. We also still believe it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the S&P 500, and we see a low probability of a meaningful correction if the SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support). As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we would not be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of ...
Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows In our prior Compass reports (8/22/23 and 8/29/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued, and we still believe it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the S&P 500. We see a low probability of a meaningful correction if the SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but, as discussed last week (8/29/23), we would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 ...
MPC, PSX, VLO, DINO, PBF, CVI, DK, ESNT, MTG, RDN, NMIH, BRK.B, CB, MKL, CINF, ERIE, CNA, LII, FIX CSWI Upgrading Financials to Market Weight Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder. We remain bullish on the S&P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415). Short ...
Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199 We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder. We also remain bullish on the S&P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward. Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). The breakouts happened later that day ...
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