The price war took its toll on Chinese auto companies in 2Q25, causing a margin squeeze along the supply chain. Price wars are inevitable, despite the state’s antiinvolution campaign. Large OEMs like Geely, BYD and GWM will survive the industry consolidation. For young companies, we expect XPeng, Leapmotor and Aito to thrive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
After a solid post-Covid profit rebound, Isuzu is once again navigating through troubled water: Its pick-up truck sales in Thailand have collapsed, the US sales situation is uncertain, and commercial vehicle sales in Asia are stagnating. Isuzu expects sales volumes will recover, and earnings will continue to benefit from further price hikes. Analyst Julie Boote is examining the truck maker’s prospects in light of increasing competition and rising geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainties.
2Q25 net profit came in 40%/49% below our and consensus estimates at Rmb6,356m (- 30% yoy/-31% qoq) on severe margin contraction given price cuts in June. Net profit per vehicle plummeted 39% yoy/41% qoq to Rmb4,950. Going forward, BYD is facing headwinds from stiffening competition and high channel inventories. We slash our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 29%/38%/46% to Rmb45.35b/Rmb51.13b/Rmb57.66b respectively. Downgrade to SELL. Lower target price from HK$142.00 to HK$90.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$115.70/Target: HK$170.00): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud revenue growth; encouraging quick commerce outlook. BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$114.40/Target: HK$90.00): 2Q25: Earnings down over 30% yoy/qoq, missing estimates on margins. Downgrade from BUY to SELL. Cut target price from HK$142.00 to HK$90.00. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$41.18/Target: HK$51.80): 1H25: Margin misses due to product mix shift; growth story remains unchange...
China’s yoy PV and PEV sales growth returned to positive territory (at +6.2%/+13.5%) in the 33rd week of 2025, as OEMs cut prices again. Geely’s insurance registrations spiked 21% wow during the week, beating our expectation, driven by the blockbuster new model Galaxy A7. However, BYD, Tesla China and Li Auto still posted a yoy sales decline during the week, albeit a wow rebound. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 5.3% wow but dipped 1.9% yoy in the 31st week of 2025, marking the third consecutive week of a yoy decline, due to the stand-off between OEMs and consumers on pricing. PEV yoy sales growth slowed to below 10% (at 7.5%) again during the week. Three out of the eight OEMs on our radar posted yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Downgrade Li Auto to SELL.
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 13% wow but dipped 1.6% yoy in the 30th week of 2025, marking the second consecutive week of yoy decline. PEV yoy sales growth remained at only 10% during the week. Four out of the eight OEMs on our radar posted yoy sales declines due to the stand-off between OEMs and consumers on pricing after the discounts came to an end at end-June. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded 7% wow but dipped 0.5% yoy in the 29th week of 2025. BYD is suffering online backlash for sponsoring CNMFT. The China government is mulling over measures to crack down on zero-mileage secondhand cars. GWM reported an upbeat 2Q25 net profit on exceptional gains. We raise our 2025 net profit forecast by 26% and keep core earnings estimates unchanged. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations edged up 0.8% yoy and fell 8.8% wow in the 28th week of 2025 due to the roll-back of promotional discounts. Geely will privatise Zeekr via a US$2.4b cash or share-swap deal, creating short-term cash and dilution pressure but enabling long-term strategic synergies. The State Council is mulling measures to curb price war. We downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD on bigger-thanexpected 2Q25 loss. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales growth slows to 0.8% yoy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update Sun Hung Kai & Co (86 HK/BUY/HK$3.47/Target: HK$5.86) 1H25 Preview: Positive market sentiment improves asset valuations. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,590) Building the future o...
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 16.9% yoy but fell 30.4% wow in the 27th week of 2025 due to the roll-back of promotional discounts, in line with expectations. On 9 July, BYD announced L4 smart parking and promised to take responsibility for any losses incurred; Geely unveiled the ground-breaking SEA-S platform and its new flagship hybrid SUV, Zeekr 9X. Chongqing recently announced a new EV subsidies policy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 6.9% yoy/4.0% wow in the 26th week of 2025, in line with expectations, while BYD’s sales fell 5% wow during the week. The rollback of discounts and the high inventory level constitute earnings headwinds. We cut BYD’s target price from HK$163.30 to HK$142.00. Geely raised its 2025 sales target to 3m units on upbeat sales. We raise target price for Geely from HK$31.00 to HK$35.00. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up 6.9% yoy on last-minute buying before promotions end. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Mastersystem Infotama (MSTI IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,295) Prominent ICT player with strong fundamentals and undemanding valuation. MALAYSIA Strategy 2H25 Strategy - Re-Charging For Outperformance ...
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 26% yoy, 40% mom and 22% wow in the 25th week of 2025, with a PEV market share of 51.6%. BYD’s sales surge on discounts is unsustainable, and long-term growth will rely on product innovations and overseas expansion. China’s vehicle exports jumped 21% yoy in May, with EVs up 43% and PHEVs soaring 134%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Tuopu.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 24% yoy, 18% mom and 27% wow in the 24th week of 2025, with a PEV market share of 55.1%. BYD’s sales rebounded 25% wow during the week on price cuts, easing inventory pressure. Geely launched the AI-powered Xingrui Cloud Power 2.0 and Galaxy A7 EM-i, featuring ultra-low fuel use and smart energy management. Robotaxi commercialisation is accelerating vehicle intelligentisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Desay SV and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Sales surge, driven by price cuts and new model launches. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Desay SV and Tuopu. Update Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.44/Target: HK$19.00) Revenue remains under pressure but stable operating margin is expected; increasing consumer preference for food delivery over dining in. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Jacobson Pharma (...
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