Chinese EVs are gaining share in the global auto market, due to China’s integrated supply chain dominance and favourable trade policies. Established incumbents like BYD are facing increasing competition from fellow Chinese auto OEMs and some western brands like VW. Lower-export OEMs (Geely, XPeng) hold greater upside than high-export leaders (BYD, GWM). China’s EV export hub status benefits suppliers as foreign OEMs leverage local production. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithi...
12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
China is cancelling VAT rebates for ESS battery exports, pulling forward demand for batteries and lithium carbonate to 2026, thus benefitting CATL and Ganfeng Lithium. The EU has set minimum prices for Chinese EVs as an alternative to the extra tariff, boding well for profitability of Chinese OEMs like Geely, BYD and XPeng. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
We trim China’s 2026 PV sales growth to 3% yoy, based on a 2% yoy drop in domestic sales and 20% export growth, as the bigger-than-expected stimulus rollback weighs on demand. Based on lower 2026 sales, we cut 2026 net profit forecasts for OEMs by 3-10%, and cut target prices for Geely, BYD, GWM, XPeng and Li Auto to HK$36.00/HK$81.00/HK$18.50/HK$145.00/HK$50.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
Indonesia Company Update | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp800/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA is entering a structural earnings upcycle driven by full in-house fleet utilisation, sharply higher operating capacity, and tighter cost control. Funding is secured to support expansion, while balance sheet optimisation could unlock dividends. With execution risk materially reduced and copper upside unpriced, we see scope for a valuation re-rating and maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of Rp1,500. Malay...
The extension of vehicle trade-in subsidies into 2026 enhances policy continuity and consumer confidence, together forming a clear policy tailwind for a more sustainable sector outlook. Supply-side measures aimed at curbing cut-throat competition under the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to ease price wars and stabilise industry margins and earnings expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELLs: Li Auto.
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
The phasing out of local car trade-in subsidies has hammered auto sales. PEV sales fell 17% yoy during the first week of December. Subsidies will resume in early-26 and trigger a sales rebound. We expect PV sales and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20.0% in 2026 respectively, driven by exports. Geely is catching up with BYD in terms of market share (12.1% vs 13.8%). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers will regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Ge...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
After the generally poor FY25 HI results posted by Japan's auto assemblers, what will the H2 picture look like? In this report, Julie Boote discusses the key earnings drivers and the outlook for individual assemblers; she concludes that FY25 will not be good, after what was an unsatisfactory FY24.
Auto Guangzhou 2025 highlighted intelligent electrification, all-scenario NOA, smart cockpits, EREVs, and futuristic concepts like flying cars and humanoid robots. Stock winners: Geely, XPeng, GWM; supply chain beneficiaries: CATL, Fuyao, Tuopu, Desay SV, Minth, BYD and Li Auto are expected to face margin pressures in 2026. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, XPeng and Minth. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
The phasing out of subsidies has hammered auto sales. PV sales fell 14% yoy, and PEV sales edged up 1-2% yoy during 1-16 Nov 25. Subsidies are likely to continue into 2026 at reduced levels. We expect PV and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20%, driven by exports. Tighter regulatory oversight amid rising safety concerns should benefit OEMs such as Geely and Great Wall.Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in Oct 25, while PEV retail sales grew 7% yoy. PV retail sales fell 19% yoy and 4% mom in 1-9 Nov 25, mainly due to the high base. China has launched a three-month crackdown on exaggerated auto ads to curb false claims, restore market order, and strengthen consumer trust. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weichai to HK$24.50.
BYD’s 3Q25 results met our estimates but missed consensus, with net profit falling 32.6% yoy. Liquidity deteriorated with net cash balance plummeting 68% qoq and debts surging 141% qoq. We keep our 2025-27 net profit forecasts at Rmb32.08b/Rmb31.92b/Rmb31.28b respectively, based on sales volumes of 5.0m/5.5m/6.0m units and margin erosion. Maintain SELL on earnings headwinds and liquidity risk; keep target price at HK$90.00.
Greater China Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to r...
Top Stories Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to re...
The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but longterm risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
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